Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Washington Reagan · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 1

KDCA · pangu_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.96 [0.94, 2.98]1.02-1.96 [-2.98, -0.94]2.21 [0.94, 2.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.96 [0.94, 2.98]1.02-1.96 [-2.98, -0.94]2.21 [0.94, 2.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.96 [0.94, 2.98]1.02-1.96 [-2.98, -0.94]2.21 [0.94, 2.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.96 [0.94, 2.98]1.02-1.96 [-2.98, -0.94]2.21 [0.94, 2.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC1.65 [0.68, 2.62]0.97-1.65 [-2.62, -0.68]1.92 [0.68, 2.62]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.67+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC1.65 [0.68, 2.62]0.97-1.65 [-2.62, -0.68]1.92 [0.68, 2.62]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.67+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC1.65 [0.68, 2.62]0.97-1.65 [-2.62, -0.68]1.92 [0.68, 2.62]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.67+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC1.65 [0.68, 2.62]0.97-1.65 [-2.62, -0.68]1.92 [0.68, 2.62]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.67+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.86 [1.05, 2.67]0.81-1.86 [-2.67, -1.05]2.03 [1.05, 2.67]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.63+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.86 [1.05, 2.67]0.81-1.86 [-2.67, -1.05]2.03 [1.05, 2.67]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.63+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.86 [1.05, 2.67]0.81-1.86 [-2.67, -1.05]2.03 [1.05, 2.67]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.63+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.86 [1.05, 2.67]0.81-1.86 [-2.67, -1.05]2.03 [1.05, 2.67]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%+0.63+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.53 [0.75, 2.31]0.78-1.53 [-2.31, -0.75]1.72 [0.75, 2.31]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.69+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.53 [0.75, 2.31]0.78-1.53 [-2.31, -0.75]1.72 [0.75, 2.31]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.69+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.53 [0.75, 2.31]0.78-1.53 [-2.31, -0.75]1.72 [0.75, 2.31]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.69+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC1.53 [0.75, 2.31]0.78-1.53 [-2.31, -0.75]1.72 [0.75, 2.31]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.69+0.842026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC2.14 [1.07, 3.21]2.14-1.07 [-3.21, 1.07]2.39 [1.07, 3.21]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.47+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC2.14 [1.07, 3.21]2.14-1.07 [-3.21, 1.07]2.39 [1.07, 3.21]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.47+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC2.14 [1.07, 3.21]2.14-1.07 [-3.21, 1.07]2.39 [1.07, 3.21]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.47+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC2.14 [1.07, 3.21]2.14-1.07 [-3.21, 1.07]2.39 [1.07, 3.21]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.47+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC2.36 [1.46, 3.25]2.36-0.90 [-3.25, 1.46]2.52 [1.46, 3.25]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.41+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC2.36 [1.46, 3.25]2.36-0.90 [-3.25, 1.46]2.52 [1.46, 3.25]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.41+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC2.36 [1.46, 3.25]2.36-0.90 [-3.25, 1.46]2.52 [1.46, 3.25]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.41+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC2.36 [1.46, 3.25]2.36-0.90 [-3.25, 1.46]2.52 [1.46, 3.25]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.41+0.412026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.29 [0.81, 1.77]0.48-1.29 [-1.77, -0.81]1.38 [0.81, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.29 [0.81, 1.77]0.48-1.29 [-1.77, -0.81]1.38 [0.81, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.29 [0.81, 1.77]0.48-1.29 [-1.77, -0.81]1.38 [0.81, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.29 [0.81, 1.77]0.48-1.29 [-1.77, -0.81]1.38 [0.81, 1.77]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.68+0.882026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.98 [0.11, 1.84]0.87-0.98 [-1.84, -0.11]1.30 [0.11, 1.84]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.98 [0.11, 1.84]0.87-0.98 [-1.84, -0.11]1.30 [0.11, 1.84]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.98 [0.11, 1.84]0.87-0.98 [-1.84, -0.11]1.30 [0.11, 1.84]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC0.98 [0.11, 1.84]0.87-0.98 [-1.84, -0.11]1.30 [0.11, 1.84]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.76+0.782026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KDCA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-29: -0.94 °F2026-08-30: -2.98 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.98
2026-08-29-0.94

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KDCA, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 1 day-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.96 · P90 |e| 2.77 °F-50+5 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.501
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0821.96 -1.96

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 -0.55 [-1.99, 0.90] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -5.11 [-5.11, -5.11] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -4.12 [-4.56, -3.68] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.65 [-0.65, -0.65] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -0.48 [-0.94, -0.02] yes
NCEP GFS 2 -0.15 [-2.48, 2.18] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.15 [-2.15, -2.15] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -3.63 [-4.84, -2.42] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 -0.29 [-2.81, 2.22] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.45 [0.45, 0.45] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 -3.04 [-4.06, -2.02] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDCA pangu_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDCA (Washington Reagan), model pangu_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence