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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Washington Reagan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KDCA · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.86 [2.62, 5.26]3.23-1.92 [-2.93, -0.49]4.57 [3.05, 6.04]6% [0%, 18%]22%39%+0.19+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.86 [2.55, 5.36]3.23-1.92 [-3.11, -0.43]4.57 [3.07, 6.13]6% [0%, 22%]22%39%+0.19+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.86 [2.47, 5.51]3.23-1.92 [-3.20, -0.11]4.57 [3.02, 6.22]6% [0%, 22%]22%39%+0.19+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.86 [2.42, 5.56]3.23-1.92 [-3.31, -0.27]4.57 [3.01, 6.29]6% [0%, 22%]22%39%+0.19+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.70 [2.40, 5.24]3.19-1.56 [-2.53, -0.13]4.50 [2.75, 6.12]6% [0%, 18%]33%44%+0.23+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.70 [2.31, 5.39]3.19-1.56 [-2.55, -0.07]4.50 [2.46, 6.25]6% [0%, 22%]33%44%+0.23+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.70 [2.27, 5.54]3.19-1.56 [-2.57, 0.23]4.50 [2.46, 6.32]6% [0%, 22%]33%44%+0.23+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.70 [2.21, 5.55]3.19-1.56 [-2.62, 0.13]4.50 [2.46, 6.38]6% [0%, 22%]33%44%+0.23+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.78 [3.24, 5.72]3.36-3.37 [-5.20, -1.40]5.45 [4.32, 6.11]6% [0%, 23%]18%29%+0.02+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.78 [2.93, 5.77]3.36-3.37 [-5.43, -1.12]5.45 [3.95, 6.15]6% [0%, 25%]18%29%+0.02+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.78 [2.86, 5.83]3.36-3.37 [-5.57, -1.21]5.45 [3.98, 6.16]6% [0%, 25%]18%29%+0.02+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.78 [2.53, 5.87]3.36-3.37 [-5.46, -1.21]5.45 [3.71, 6.19]6% [0%, 33%]18%29%+0.02+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.55 [3.34, 5.33]3.55-2.72 [-4.61, -0.65]5.20 [4.10, 5.79]12% [0%, 32%]18%24%+0.07+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.55 [3.08, 5.37]3.55-2.72 [-4.78, -0.33]5.20 [3.80, 5.86]12% [0%, 33%]18%24%+0.07+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.55 [3.05, 5.42]3.55-2.72 [-4.80, -0.35]5.20 [3.82, 5.82]12% [0%, 33%]18%24%+0.07+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.55 [2.86, 5.50]3.55-2.72 [-4.83, -0.35]5.20 [3.47, 5.89]12% [0%, 34%]18%24%+0.07+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.96 [1.96, 3.48]2.76+0.98 [-1.16, 2.75]3.61 [2.66, 4.10]28% [12%, 56%]28%50%+0.47+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.96 [1.55, 3.48]2.76+0.98 [-1.30, 2.71]3.61 [2.08, 4.12]28% [10%, 67%]28%50%+0.47+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.96 [1.58, 3.54]2.76+0.98 [-1.39, 2.78]3.61 [2.17, 4.15]28% [11%, 67%]28%50%+0.47+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.96 [1.54, 3.55]2.76+0.98 [-1.32, 3.20]3.61 [2.12, 4.21]28% [11%, 71%]28%50%+0.47+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.06 [2.06, 3.64]2.86+1.11 [-1.17, 2.97]3.70 [2.58, 4.30]22% [12%, 44%]33%56%+0.45+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.06 [1.59, 3.65]2.86+1.11 [-1.34, 2.90]3.70 [2.07, 4.34]22% [10%, 67%]33%56%+0.45+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.06 [1.78, 3.73]2.86+1.11 [-1.39, 2.98]3.70 [2.20, 4.38]22% [10%, 58%]33%56%+0.45+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.06 [1.68, 3.72]2.86+1.11 [-1.39, 3.43]3.70 [2.11, 4.42]22% [11%, 60%]33%56%+0.45+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.36 [1.43, 2.95]2.38+0.47 [-0.58, 1.23]2.79 [2.01, 3.39]24% [12%, 50%]41%65%+0.58+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.36 [0.90, 2.94]2.38+0.47 [-0.64, 1.22]2.79 [1.67, 3.38]24% [12%, 75%]41%65%+0.58+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.36 [0.86, 3.07]2.38+0.47 [-0.62, 1.35]2.79 [1.49, 3.49]24% [9%, 75%]41%65%+0.58+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.36 [0.64, 3.00]2.38+0.47 [-0.53, 1.36]2.79 [1.29, 3.46]24% [11%, 76%]41%65%+0.58+0.582026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.47 [1.59, 3.05]2.44+0.70 [-0.39, 1.48]2.91 [2.14, 3.47]29% [19%, 50%]35%53%+0.56+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.47 [1.21, 3.01]2.44+0.70 [-0.40, 1.49]2.91 [1.95, 3.50]29% [20%, 75%]35%53%+0.56+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.47 [1.09, 3.13]2.44+0.70 [-0.41, 1.64]2.91 [1.88, 3.57]29% [17%, 75%]35%53%+0.56+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.47 [0.95, 3.09]2.44+0.70 [-0.35, 1.62]2.91 [1.64, 3.57]29% [18%, 76%]35%53%+0.56+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDCA, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -3.5 °F2026-08-14: +3.02 °F2026-08-15: -4.42 °F2026-08-16: +9.43 °F2026-08-17: -9.77 °F2026-08-18: -3.61 °F2026-08-19: -2.35 °F2026-08-20: -4.89 °F2026-08-21: +1.55 °F2026-08-22: +2.04 °F2026-08-23: -4.97 °F2026-08-24: -4.41 °F2026-08-25: -1.46 °F2026-08-26: -2.71 °F2026-08-27: -4.5 °F2026-08-28: -5.01 °F2026-08-29: -0.38 °F2026-08-30: +1.45 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.45
2026-08-29-0.38
2026-08-28-5.01
2026-08-27-4.50
2026-08-26-2.71
2026-08-25-1.46
2026-08-24-4.41
2026-08-23-4.97
2026-08-22+2.04
2026-08-21+1.55
2026-08-20-4.89
2026-08-19-2.35
2026-08-18-3.61
2026-08-17-9.77
2026-08-16+9.43
2026-08-15-4.42
2026-08-14+3.02
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-3.50

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDCA, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 3.56 · P90 |e| 6.34 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.86 -1.92

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.20 [-2.66, 2.90] no
NCEP GFS 18 -0.72 [-2.68, 1.02] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -1.52 [-4.27, -0.14] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.92 [-2.37, 0.84] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDCA ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDCA (Washington Reagan), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence