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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Washington Reagan · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KDCA · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.91 [2.51, 5.22]3.27-2.37 [-4.11, -0.31]4.86 [3.03, 6.10]14% [0%, 29%]36%41%+0.07+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.91 [2.25, 5.33]3.27-2.37 [-4.09, 0.07]4.86 [2.64, 6.18]14% [0%, 30%]36%41%+0.07+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.91 [2.25, 5.40]3.27-2.37 [-4.36, -0.05]4.86 [2.64, 6.24]14% [0%, 33%]36%41%+0.07+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.91 [2.33, 5.37]3.27-2.37 [-4.28, 0.07]4.86 [2.69, 6.16]14% [0%, 33%]36%41%+0.07+0.202026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.00 [2.38, 5.39]3.63-1.99 [-3.95, 0.30]5.09 [2.94, 6.45]14% [0%, 27%]27%45%+0.04+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.00 [1.94, 5.52]3.63-1.99 [-3.97, 0.72]5.09 [2.42, 6.52]14% [0%, 29%]27%45%+0.04+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.00 [1.94, 5.59]3.63-1.99 [-4.22, 0.65]5.09 [2.49, 6.54]14% [0%, 32%]27%45%+0.04+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.00 [2.00, 5.55]3.63-1.99 [-4.16, 0.70]5.09 [2.45, 6.51]14% [0%, 30%]27%45%+0.04+0.122026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.75 [2.69, 4.53]2.69-3.00 [-4.17, -1.30]4.39 [3.32, 4.94]9% [0%, 18%]27%50%+0.10+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.75 [2.46, 4.55]2.69-3.00 [-4.19, -0.87]4.39 [2.97, 4.97]9% [0%, 18%]27%50%+0.10+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.75 [2.47, 4.63]2.69-3.00 [-4.21, -0.86]4.39 [2.94, 4.98]9% [0%, 18%]27%50%+0.10+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.75 [2.47, 4.56]2.69-3.00 [-4.15, -0.94]4.39 [2.93, 4.95]9% [0%, 18%]27%50%+0.10+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.72 [2.77, 4.36]2.86-2.74 [-3.92, -0.95]4.45 [3.30, 5.11]5% [0%, 12%]23%45%+0.11+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.72 [2.55, 4.41]2.86-2.74 [-3.97, -0.45]4.45 [2.64, 5.10]5% [0%, 13%]23%45%+0.11+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.72 [2.49, 4.44]2.86-2.74 [-3.95, -0.31]4.45 [2.74, 5.17]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%+0.11+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.72 [2.51, 4.44]2.86-2.74 [-3.89, -0.58]4.45 [2.58, 5.11]5% [0%, 13%]23%45%+0.11+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.79 [1.54, 3.77]2.81+0.66 [-0.77, 2.22]3.46 [2.02, 4.43]14% [0%, 33%]50%55%+0.24+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.79 [1.32, 3.87]2.81+0.66 [-0.81, 2.54]3.46 [1.55, 4.56]14% [0%, 42%]50%55%+0.24+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.79 [1.31, 3.92]2.81+0.66 [-0.90, 2.48]3.46 [1.53, 4.61]14% [0%, 40%]50%55%+0.24+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.79 [1.15, 4.05]2.81+0.66 [-0.98, 2.58]3.46 [1.39, 4.74]14% [0%, 44%]50%55%+0.24+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.76 [1.59, 3.73]2.77+0.81 [-0.58, 2.34]3.49 [2.08, 4.50]27% [15%, 47%]55%59%+0.25+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.76 [1.39, 3.90]2.77+0.81 [-0.66, 2.70]3.49 [1.68, 4.67]27% [14%, 50%]55%59%+0.25+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.76 [1.40, 3.88]2.77+0.81 [-0.74, 2.59]3.49 [1.71, 4.68]27% [12%, 50%]55%59%+0.25+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.76 [1.30, 4.05]2.77+0.81 [-0.82, 2.71]3.49 [1.56, 4.83]27% [13%, 53%]55%59%+0.25+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.38 [1.63, 3.19]2.36+0.43 [-0.74, 1.64]2.96 [2.01, 3.75]32% [18%, 46%]55%64%+0.35+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.38 [1.47, 3.29]2.36+0.43 [-0.84, 1.89]2.96 [1.90, 3.87]32% [13%, 50%]55%64%+0.35+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.38 [1.46, 3.30]2.36+0.43 [-0.89, 1.83]2.96 [1.82, 3.85]32% [12%, 50%]55%64%+0.35+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.38 [1.42, 3.35]2.36+0.43 [-0.99, 1.89]2.96 [1.74, 3.90]32% [12%, 50%]55%64%+0.35+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.25 [1.41, 3.08]2.23+0.51 [-0.58, 1.70]2.85 [1.89, 3.73]27% [12%, 44%]50%64%+0.39+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.25 [1.31, 3.18]2.23+0.51 [-0.70, 1.94]2.85 [1.78, 3.93]27% [9%, 50%]50%64%+0.39+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.25 [1.31, 3.21]2.23+0.51 [-0.75, 1.90]2.85 [1.76, 3.84]27% [7%, 50%]50%64%+0.39+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.25 [1.20, 3.28]2.23+0.51 [-0.80, 1.94]2.85 [1.62, 3.85]27% [8%, 50%]50%64%+0.39+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDCA, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: -3.19 °F2026-08-10: +1.74 °F2026-08-11: +5.37 °F2026-08-12: +0.54 °F2026-08-13: +0.14 °F2026-08-14: -8.95 °F2026-08-15: -1.13 °F2026-08-16: +6.69 °F2026-08-17: -3.73 °F2026-08-18: -5.12 °F2026-08-19: -3.78 °F2026-08-20: -12.51 °F2026-08-21: -5.47 °F2026-08-22: +2.44 °F2026-08-23: -5.06 °F2026-08-24: -5.5 °F2026-08-25: -5.14 °F2026-08-26: -1.82 °F2026-08-27: -1.79 °F2026-08-28: -1.57 °F2026-08-29: -0.66 °F2026-08-30: -3.58 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.58
2026-08-29-0.66
2026-08-28-1.57
2026-08-27-1.79
2026-08-26-1.82
2026-08-25-5.14
2026-08-24-5.50
2026-08-23-5.06
2026-08-22+2.44
2026-08-21-5.47
2026-08-20-12.51
2026-08-19-3.78
2026-08-18-5.12
2026-08-17-3.73
2026-08-16+6.69
2026-08-15-1.13
2026-08-14-8.95
2026-08-13+0.14
2026-08-12+0.54
2026-08-11+5.37
2026-08-10+1.74
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-3.19

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDCA, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.65 · P90 |e| 6.57 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.91 -2.37

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.65 [-0.97, 1.78] no
NCEP GFS 22 +0.25 [-3.45, 1.94] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.81 [-4.29, 0.81] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 -0.28 [-1.08, 0.97] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDCA ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDCA (Washington Reagan), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDCA/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence