KMIA — Miami Intl
25.7906, -80.3164 · 3 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIMIA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.05-4.05 · n=30 | 4.35-4.35 · n=29 | 4.40-4.40 · n=28 | 4.18-4.18 · n=27 | 4.32-4.32 · n=26 | 4.52-4.52 · n=25 | 4.44-4.44 · n=24 | 4.27-4.27 · n=23 | 4.21-4.21 · n=22 | 4.48-4.48 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.96-6.96 · n=2 | 6.93-6.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.93-6.93 · n=3 | 6.88-6.88 · n=2 | 6.86-6.86 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.54-4.54 · n=2 | 5.33-5.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.08-5.08 · n=3 | 4.98-4.98 · n=2 | 5.26-5.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.52-1.25 · n=30 | 1.65-1.39 · n=29 | 1.69-1.46 · n=28 | 1.98-1.69 · n=27 | 2.04-1.91 · n=26 | 2.17-1.92 · n=25 | 2.71-2.54 · n=24 | 2.76-2.67 · n=23 | 2.56-2.56 · n=22 | 2.64-2.52 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.05-6.05 · n=2 | 6.08-6.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 3.66-3.66 · n=28 | 4.43-4.43 · n=27 | 4.65-4.65 · n=26 | 4.46-4.46 · n=25 | 4.57-4.57 · n=25 | 5.03-5.03 · n=25 | 5.12-5.12 · n=24 | 5.22-5.22 · n=23 | 5.10-5.10 · n=22 | 5.01-5.01 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.27-3.27 · n=24 | 4.02-4.02 · n=23 | 3.95-3.95 · n=22 | 3.97-3.97 · n=22 | 3.57-3.57 · n=20 | 3.92-3.66 · n=18 | 3.95-3.85 · n=19 | 3.69-3.69 · n=18 | 4.27-4.15 · n=17 | 3.85-3.63 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 5.83-5.83 · n=2 | 5.99-5.99 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.65-4.65 · n=3 | 6.55-6.55 · n=2 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.41+0.03 · n=90 | 1.89+0.09 · n=90 | 2.18+0.02 · n=90 | 2.23+0.01 · n=90 | 2.28-0.06 · n=90 | 2.36-0.09 · n=90 | 2.48-0.12 · n=90 | 2.53-0.18 · n=90 | 2.61-0.23 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.10+1.89 · n=30 | 1.89+1.60 · n=29 | 1.98+1.64 · n=28 | 1.92+1.63 · n=27 | 1.87+1.57 · n=26 | 2.01+1.61 · n=25 | 2.11+1.50 · n=24 | 2.13+1.65 · n=23 | 2.13+1.77 · n=22 | 2.40+1.98 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 2.72+1.99 · n=2 | 2.10-2.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.84+1.49 · n=3 | 2.97+1.32 · n=2 | 1.72-1.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.05+4.05 · n=2 | 0.61+0.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.31+2.26 · n=3 | 3.41+3.41 · n=2 | 0.73+0.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 4.51+4.50 · n=30 | 4.84+4.78 · n=29 | 4.86+4.86 · n=28 | 4.92+4.92 · n=27 | 4.64+4.64 · n=26 | 4.80+4.80 · n=25 | 4.68+4.68 · n=24 | 4.76+4.76 · n=23 | 4.28+4.11 · n=22 | 4.60+4.60 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 3.60+3.60 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.47+0.66 · n=28 | 1.60+0.28 · n=27 | 1.71+0.06 · n=26 | 1.51-0.15 · n=25 | 1.52-0.08 · n=25 | 1.75-0.10 · n=25 | 1.68-0.34 · n=24 | 1.68-0.44 · n=23 | 1.63-0.38 · n=22 | 1.50-0.14 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.02+0.62 · n=24 | 1.68-0.17 · n=23 | 1.54-0.18 · n=22 | 1.65-0.04 · n=22 | 1.10+0.28 · n=20 | 1.25+0.61 · n=18 | 1.75+0.29 · n=19 | 1.86+0.53 · n=18 | 1.63+0.13 · n=17 | 1.89+0.68 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.53+3.53 · n=2 | 0.07-0.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.32+1.27 · n=3 | 2.33+2.26 · n=2 | 0.74-0.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.40-0.04 · n=90 | 2.90-0.06 · n=90 | 2.98-0.09 · n=90 | 2.99-0.12 · n=90 | 3.01-0.14 · n=90 | 3.14-0.14 · n=90 | 3.16-0.11 · n=90 | 3.36-0.13 · n=90 | 3.47-0.16 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 4.35-4.35 · n=29 | 6.93-6.93 · n=1 | 6.88-6.88 · n=2 | 5.33-5.33 · n=1 | 4.98-4.98 · n=2 | 1.65-1.39 · n=29 | 6.08-6.08 · n=1 | 4.43-4.43 · n=27 | 4.02-4.02 · n=23 | 5.99-5.99 · n=1 | 6.55-6.55 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06-3.06 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 969 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 91 | 81 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 90 | 76 | CLI | obs_diff_gt2f |
| 2026-08-28 | 93 | 80 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 93 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 92 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 92 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 91 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 93 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 94 | 80 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 94 | 81 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 93 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 96 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 100 | 82 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 95 | 80 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 94 | 82 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 93 | 80 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 96 | 82 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 94 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 94 | 80 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 94 | 83 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 93 | 84 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 92 | 82 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 92 | 82 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 91 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 88 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 90 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 92 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 93 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 91 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 94 | 74 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences