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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KMIA · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 2 QC4.18 [3.77, 4.74]1.21-4.18 [-4.74, -3.77]4.41 [3.98, 4.95]0% [0%, 0%]4%26%-0.95+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 2 QC4.18 [3.74, 4.82]1.21-4.18 [-4.82, -3.74]4.41 [3.93, 5.01]0% [0%, 0%]4%26%-0.95+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 2 QC4.18 [3.72, 4.75]1.21-4.18 [-4.75, -3.72]4.41 [3.93, 4.96]0% [0%, 0%]4%26%-0.95+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 2 QC4.18 [3.73, 4.95]1.21-4.18 [-4.95, -3.73]4.41 [3.93, 5.13]0% [0%, 0%]4%26%-0.95+0.442026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 2 QC5.03 [4.71, 5.47]1.14-5.03 [-5.47, -4.71]5.21 [4.87, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.34+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 2 QC5.03 [4.66, 5.52]1.14-5.03 [-5.52, -4.66]5.21 [4.81, 5.67]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.34+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 2 QC5.03 [4.63, 5.45]1.14-5.03 [-5.45, -4.63]5.21 [4.79, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.34+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 2 QC5.03 [4.64, 5.62]1.14-5.03 [-5.62, -4.64]5.21 [4.81, 5.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.34+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 2 QC4.51 [4.08, 5.03]1.12-4.51 [-5.03, -4.08]4.71 [4.27, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.10+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 2 QC4.51 [4.03, 5.11]1.12-4.51 [-5.11, -4.03]4.71 [4.19, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.10+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 2 QC4.51 [4.04, 5.15]1.12-4.51 [-5.15, -4.04]4.71 [4.19, 5.27]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.10+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 2 QC4.51 [4.02, 5.26]1.12-4.51 [-5.26, -4.02]4.71 [4.21, 5.37]0% [0%, 0%]4%11%-1.10+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 2 QC5.37 [4.99, 5.82]1.05-5.37 [-5.82, -4.99]5.53 [5.12, 5.94]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.50+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 2 QC5.37 [4.93, 5.84]1.05-5.37 [-5.84, -4.93]5.53 [5.05, 5.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.50+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 2 QC5.37 [4.96, 5.87]1.05-5.37 [-5.87, -4.96]5.53 [5.08, 5.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.50+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 2 QC5.37 [4.93, 5.94]1.05-5.37 [-5.94, -4.93]5.53 [5.05, 6.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.50+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 2 QC1.92 [1.41, 2.47]1.50+1.63 [1.00, 2.29]2.45 [1.94, 2.89]37% [15%, 57%]56%78%+0.21+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 2 QC1.92 [1.34, 2.52]1.50+1.63 [0.90, 2.36]2.45 [1.86, 2.91]37% [14%, 61%]56%78%+0.21+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 2 QC1.92 [1.30, 2.55]1.50+1.63 [0.87, 2.39]2.45 [1.82, 2.94]37% [11%, 61%]56%78%+0.21+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 2 QC1.92 [1.29, 2.59]1.50+1.63 [0.84, 2.48]2.45 [1.77, 2.97]37% [8%, 62%]56%78%+0.21+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 2 QC2.45 [1.81, 3.10]1.48+2.38 [1.72, 3.06]2.99 [2.44, 3.50]33% [13%, 54%]37%63%-0.00+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 2 QC2.45 [1.69, 3.16]1.48+2.38 [1.62, 3.12]2.99 [2.35, 3.52]33% [11%, 57%]37%63%-0.00+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 2 QC2.45 [1.68, 3.20]1.48+2.38 [1.61, 3.16]2.99 [2.27, 3.58]33% [9%, 59%]37%63%-0.00+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 2 QC2.45 [1.66, 3.28]1.48+2.38 [1.58, 3.25]2.99 [2.26, 3.60]33% [7%, 58%]37%63%-0.00+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 2 QC1.75 [1.28, 2.25]1.50+1.37 [0.83, 1.94]2.24 [1.81, 2.63]33% [14%, 53%]67%81%+0.28+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 2 QC1.75 [1.23, 2.28]1.50+1.37 [0.74, 2.00]2.24 [1.76, 2.65]33% [14%, 56%]67%81%+0.28+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 2 QC1.75 [1.22, 2.36]1.50+1.37 [0.72, 2.04]2.24 [1.72, 2.70]33% [12%, 56%]67%81%+0.28+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 2 QC1.75 [1.22, 2.34]1.50+1.37 [0.71, 2.14]2.24 [1.69, 2.70]33% [12%, 57%]67%81%+0.28+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 2 QC2.21 [1.68, 2.76]1.46+2.08 [1.52, 2.67]2.72 [2.22, 3.17]37% [15%, 57%]52%78%+0.10+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 2 QC2.21 [1.60, 2.81]1.46+2.08 [1.46, 2.73]2.72 [2.15, 3.19]37% [14%, 61%]52%78%+0.10+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 2 QC2.21 [1.60, 2.88]1.46+2.08 [1.45, 2.81]2.72 [2.13, 3.27]37% [11%, 61%]52%78%+0.10+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 2 QC2.21 [1.57, 2.91]1.46+2.08 [1.43, 2.88]2.72 [2.12, 3.28]37% [8%, 62%]52%78%+0.10+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -6.89 °F2026-08-05: -5.7 °F2026-08-06: -3.96 °F2026-08-07: -4.89 °F2026-08-08: -2.79 °F2026-08-09: -3.31 °F2026-08-10: -3.14 °F2026-08-11: -3.63 °F2026-08-12: -4.47 °F2026-08-13: -4.93 °F2026-08-14: -6.12 °F2026-08-15: -2.59 °F2026-08-16: -2.92 °F2026-08-17: -3.1 °F2026-08-18: -6.25 °F2026-08-19: -4.14 °F2026-08-20: -2.06 °F2026-08-21: -2.84 °F2026-08-22: -3.53 °F2026-08-23: -4.62 °F2026-08-24: -1.79 °F2026-08-25: -5.16 °F2026-08-26: -6.52 °F2026-08-27: -5.42 °F2026-08-28: -4.7 °F2026-08-29: -2.45 °F2026-08-30: -5 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.00
2026-08-29-2.45
2026-08-28-4.70
2026-08-27-5.42
2026-08-26-6.52
2026-08-25-5.16
2026-08-24-1.79
2026-08-23-4.62
2026-08-22-3.53
2026-08-21-2.84
2026-08-20-2.06
2026-08-19-4.14
2026-08-18-6.25
2026-08-17-3.10
2026-08-16-2.92
2026-08-15-2.59
2026-08-14-6.12
2026-08-13-4.93
2026-08-12-4.47
2026-08-11-3.63
2026-08-10-3.14
2026-08-09-3.31
2026-08-08-2.79
2026-08-07-4.89
2026-08-06-3.96
2026-08-05-5.70
2026-08-04-6.89

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.14 · P90 |e| 6.18 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.004
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08274.18 -4.18

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +2.21 [1.47, 3.44] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.24 [-1.02, 0.34] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.23 [-0.34, 1.16] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +2.03 [1.18, 2.96] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence