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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.97 [3.21, 4.78]1.47-3.97 [-4.78, -3.21]4.40 [3.65, 5.21]5% [0%, 12%]9%36%-0.94+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.97 [3.12, 4.80]1.47-3.97 [-4.80, -3.12]4.40 [3.54, 5.25]5% [0%, 12%]9%36%-0.94+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.97 [3.10, 4.84]1.47-3.97 [-4.84, -3.10]4.40 [3.49, 5.30]5% [0%, 12%]9%36%-0.94+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.97 [3.18, 4.79]1.47-3.97 [-4.79, -3.18]4.40 [3.58, 5.23]5% [0%, 12%]9%36%-0.94+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC4.62 [4.01, 5.18]1.16-4.62 [-5.18, -4.01]4.83 [4.30, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.26+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC4.62 [3.94, 5.21]1.16-4.62 [-5.21, -3.94]4.83 [4.22, 5.34]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.26+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC4.62 [3.93, 5.22]1.16-4.62 [-5.22, -3.93]4.83 [4.20, 5.37]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.26+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC4.62 [4.00, 5.21]1.16-4.62 [-5.21, -4.00]4.83 [4.27, 5.34]0% [0%, 0%]5%9%-1.26+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.87 [2.92, 4.88]1.48-3.87 [-4.88, -2.92]4.34 [3.38, 5.13]9% [0%, 20%]18%32%-0.89+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.87 [2.87, 5.02]1.48-3.87 [-5.02, -2.87]4.34 [3.33, 5.19]9% [0%, 20%]18%32%-0.89+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.87 [2.85, 5.04]1.48-3.87 [-5.04, -2.85]4.34 [3.30, 5.24]9% [0%, 21%]18%32%-0.89+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.87 [2.87, 5.04]1.48-3.87 [-5.04, -2.87]4.34 [3.36, 5.23]9% [0%, 21%]18%32%-0.89+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC4.75 [3.81, 5.73]1.48-4.75 [-5.73, -3.81]5.19 [4.23, 6.06]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-1.32+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC4.75 [3.72, 5.96]1.48-4.75 [-5.96, -3.72]5.19 [4.13, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-1.32+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC4.75 [3.70, 5.97]1.48-4.75 [-5.97, -3.70]5.19 [4.09, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-1.32+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC4.75 [3.73, 6.02]1.48-4.75 [-6.02, -3.73]5.19 [4.13, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-1.32+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.65 [1.17, 2.36]1.66-0.04 [-1.37, 0.78]2.25 [1.66, 3.02]45% [26%, 71%]68%82%+0.29+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.65 [1.11, 2.55]1.66-0.04 [-1.63, 0.86]2.25 [1.57, 3.22]45% [19%, 75%]68%82%+0.29+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.65 [1.09, 2.50]1.66-0.04 [-1.58, 0.82]2.25 [1.45, 3.13]45% [16%, 76%]68%82%+0.29+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.65 [0.99, 2.41]1.66-0.04 [-1.57, 0.94]2.25 [1.37, 3.08]45% [19%, 81%]68%82%+0.29+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC1.97 [1.60, 2.41]1.71+0.73 [-0.56, 1.53]2.35 [1.96, 2.74]23% [10%, 29%]55%73%+0.15+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC1.97 [1.57, 2.48]1.71+0.73 [-0.84, 1.65]2.35 [1.89, 2.82]23% [0%, 29%]55%73%+0.15+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC1.97 [1.55, 2.46]1.71+0.73 [-0.81, 1.61]2.35 [1.90, 2.79]23% [0%, 29%]55%73%+0.15+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC1.97 [1.45, 2.46]1.71+0.73 [-0.79, 1.67]2.35 [1.77, 2.82]23% [0%, 29%]55%73%+0.15+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.74 [1.26, 2.57]1.70-0.23 [-0.82, 0.37]2.19 [1.68, 2.97]45% [21%, 67%]64%82%+0.25+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.74 [1.32, 2.89]1.70-0.23 [-1.00, 0.68]2.19 [1.73, 3.31]45% [14%, 64%]64%82%+0.25+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.74 [1.25, 2.94]1.70-0.23 [-1.08, 0.65]2.19 [1.68, 3.29]45% [11%, 68%]64%82%+0.25+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.74 [1.26, 3.38]1.70-0.23 [-1.01, 0.78]2.19 [1.64, 3.38]45% [0%, 67%]64%82%+0.25+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC1.84 [1.35, 2.80]1.74+0.55 [-0.03, 1.16]2.35 [1.75, 3.28]36% [17%, 54%]55%77%+0.21+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC1.84 [1.38, 3.11]1.74+0.55 [-0.35, 1.47]2.35 [1.83, 3.62]36% [14%, 55%]55%77%+0.21+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC1.84 [1.33, 3.11]1.74+0.55 [-0.40, 1.47]2.35 [1.74, 3.65]36% [11%, 57%]55%77%+0.21+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC1.84 [1.34, 3.82]1.74+0.55 [-0.36, 1.62]2.35 [1.77, 3.95]36% [0%, 57%]55%77%+0.21+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -3.71 °F2026-08-10: -3.38 °F2026-08-11: -5.21 °F2026-08-12: -3.78 °F2026-08-13: -3.39 °F2026-08-14: -5.51 °F2026-08-15: -4.42 °F2026-08-16: -2.46 °F2026-08-17: -2.45 °F2026-08-18: -5.76 °F2026-08-19: -2.35 °F2026-08-20: -0.17 °F2026-08-21: -2.54 °F2026-08-22: -2.95 °F2026-08-23: -7.59 °F2026-08-24: -1.88 °F2026-08-25: -3.54 °F2026-08-26: -5.65 °F2026-08-27: -8.93 °F2026-08-28: -4.65 °F2026-08-29: -4.14 °F2026-08-30: -2.85 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.85
2026-08-29-4.14
2026-08-28-4.65
2026-08-27-8.93
2026-08-26-5.65
2026-08-25-3.54
2026-08-24-1.88
2026-08-23-7.59
2026-08-22-2.95
2026-08-21-2.54
2026-08-20-0.17
2026-08-19-2.35
2026-08-18-5.76
2026-08-17-2.45
2026-08-16-2.46
2026-08-15-4.42
2026-08-14-5.51
2026-08-13-3.39
2026-08-12-3.78
2026-08-11-5.21
2026-08-10-3.38
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-3.71

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.62 · P90 |e| 5.75 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.97 -3.97

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.23 [-1.16, 0.34] no
NCEP GFS 22 +1.89 [0.91, 3.24] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.47 [-1.45, 0.32] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.92 [0.52, 3.05] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence