Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 8

KMIA · aifs_single · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC4.21 [3.60, 4.74]1.39-4.21 [-4.74, -3.60]4.57 [3.97, 5.09]5% [0%, 12%]9%27%-0.49+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC4.21 [3.59, 4.72]1.39-4.21 [-4.72, -3.59]4.57 [3.95, 5.10]5% [0%, 13%]9%27%-0.49+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC4.21 [3.50, 4.77]1.39-4.21 [-4.77, -3.50]4.57 [3.94, 5.16]5% [0%, 14%]9%27%-0.49+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC4.21 [3.45, 4.72]1.39-4.21 [-4.72, -3.45]4.57 [3.84, 5.10]5% [0%, 14%]9%27%-0.49+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC5.12 [4.48, 5.72]1.35-5.12 [-5.72, -4.48]5.42 [4.74, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]5%5%-0.82+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC5.12 [4.44, 5.74]1.35-5.12 [-5.74, -4.44]5.42 [4.73, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]5%5%-0.82+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC5.12 [4.38, 5.83]1.35-5.12 [-5.83, -4.38]5.42 [4.68, 6.19]0% [0%, 0%]5%5%-0.82+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC5.12 [4.35, 5.72]1.35-5.12 [-5.72, -4.35]5.42 [4.63, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]5%5%-0.82+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC4.68 [4.14, 5.19]1.36-4.68 [-5.19, -4.14]5.02 [4.34, 5.61]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-0.66+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC4.68 [4.13, 5.15]1.36-4.68 [-5.15, -4.13]5.02 [4.28, 5.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-0.66+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC4.68 [4.11, 5.17]1.36-4.68 [-5.17, -4.11]5.02 [4.29, 5.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-0.66+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC4.68 [3.95, 5.17]1.36-4.68 [-5.17, -3.95]5.02 [4.11, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%18%-0.66+0.522026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC5.58 [4.96, 6.17]1.29-5.58 [-6.17, -4.96]5.86 [5.12, 6.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC5.58 [4.93, 6.15]1.29-5.58 [-6.15, -4.93]5.86 [5.10, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC5.58 [4.92, 6.17]1.29-5.58 [-6.17, -4.92]5.86 [5.06, 6.56]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC5.58 [4.80, 6.18]1.29-5.58 [-6.18, -4.80]5.86 [4.94, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.98+0.552026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC2.13 [1.46, 2.76]1.80+1.77 [0.61, 2.66]2.76 [2.09, 3.29]41% [22%, 59%]50%77%+0.36+0.462026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC2.13 [1.38, 2.85]1.80+1.77 [0.24, 2.77]2.76 [1.92, 3.33]41% [22%, 62%]50%77%+0.36+0.462026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC2.13 [1.37, 2.95]1.80+1.77 [0.35, 2.82]2.76 [2.00, 3.37]41% [20%, 62%]50%77%+0.36+0.462026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC2.13 [1.34, 2.95]1.80+1.77 [0.32, 2.91]2.76 [1.98, 3.36]41% [16%, 62%]50%77%+0.36+0.462026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC2.66 [1.80, 3.44]1.84+2.51 [1.35, 3.43]3.29 [2.47, 3.91]32% [13%, 53%]45%55%+0.20+0.452026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC2.66 [1.56, 3.55]1.84+2.51 [0.94, 3.53]3.29 [2.20, 3.96]32% [13%, 56%]45%55%+0.20+0.452026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC2.66 [1.65, 3.60]1.84+2.51 [1.09, 3.60]3.29 [2.33, 4.04]32% [11%, 57%]45%55%+0.20+0.452026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC2.66 [1.61, 3.69]1.84+2.51 [1.02, 3.69]3.29 [2.28, 4.05]32% [7%, 60%]45%55%+0.20+0.452026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.95 [1.39, 2.47]1.73+1.42 [0.35, 2.17]2.44 [1.84, 2.86]36% [19%, 56%]59%77%+0.41+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.95 [1.34, 2.52]1.73+1.42 [-0.00, 2.23]2.44 [1.73, 2.89]36% [18%, 57%]59%77%+0.41+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.95 [1.26, 2.57]1.73+1.42 [0.04, 2.30]2.44 [1.65, 2.90]36% [16%, 60%]59%77%+0.41+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.95 [1.29, 2.58]1.73+1.42 [0.12, 2.39]2.44 [1.66, 2.95]36% [17%, 57%]59%77%+0.41+0.492026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC2.44 [1.69, 3.05]1.74+2.21 [1.11, 2.96]2.98 [2.19, 3.50]32% [13%, 53%]55%59%+0.27+0.482026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC2.44 [1.47, 3.13]1.74+2.21 [0.76, 3.03]2.98 [1.97, 3.54]32% [13%, 56%]55%59%+0.27+0.482026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC2.44 [1.52, 3.17]1.74+2.21 [0.78, 3.10]2.98 [2.00, 3.58]32% [11%, 57%]55%59%+0.27+0.482026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC2.44 [1.53, 3.20]1.74+2.21 [0.89, 3.20]2.98 [1.97, 3.62]32% [7%, 60%]55%59%+0.27+0.482026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -4.98 °F2026-08-10: -3.5 °F2026-08-11: -4.36 °F2026-08-12: -5.11 °F2026-08-13: -3.72 °F2026-08-14: -5.87 °F2026-08-15: -2.82 °F2026-08-16: -3.34 °F2026-08-17: -2.51 °F2026-08-18: -8.77 °F2026-08-19: -5.94 °F2026-08-20: -4.56 °F2026-08-21: -5.07 °F2026-08-22: -3.91 °F2026-08-23: -2.86 °F2026-08-24: -0.21 °F2026-08-25: -1.94 °F2026-08-26: -4.71 °F2026-08-27: -5.48 °F2026-08-28: -6.75 °F2026-08-29: -2.69 °F2026-08-30: -3.45 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.45
2026-08-29-2.69
2026-08-28-6.75
2026-08-27-5.48
2026-08-26-4.71
2026-08-25-1.94
2026-08-24-0.21
2026-08-23-2.86
2026-08-22-3.91
2026-08-21-5.07
2026-08-20-4.56
2026-08-19-5.94
2026-08-18-8.77
2026-08-17-2.51
2026-08-16-3.34
2026-08-15-2.82
2026-08-14-5.87
2026-08-13-3.72
2026-08-12-5.11
2026-08-11-4.36
2026-08-10-3.50
2026-08-09-4.98

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 5 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.14 · P90 |e| 5.93 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.005
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.21 -4.21

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 22 +1.65 [0.95, 2.73] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -0.89 [-2.36, 0.46] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 -0.15 [-1.50, 1.28] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.39 [0.60, 2.41] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA aifs_single lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence