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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC4.27 [3.36, 5.49]2.24-4.15 [-5.48, -3.12]4.94 [3.90, 5.99]12% [0%, 24%]24%35%-0.61+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC4.27 [3.33, 5.59]2.24-4.15 [-5.59, -3.10]4.94 [3.91, 6.03]12% [0%, 25%]24%35%-0.61+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC4.27 [3.28, 5.57]2.24-4.15 [-5.57, -3.03]4.94 [3.83, 6.03]12% [0%, 29%]24%35%-0.61+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 2 QC4.27 [3.29, 5.59]2.24-4.15 [-5.59, -3.07]4.94 [3.83, 6.04]12% [0%, 27%]24%35%-0.61+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 2 QC4.97 [4.11, 6.11]1.98-4.97 [-6.11, -4.11]5.53 [4.65, 6.49]12% [0%, 24%]12%24%-0.88+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 2 QC4.97 [4.07, 6.18]1.98-4.97 [-6.18, -4.07]5.53 [4.65, 6.60]12% [0%, 25%]12%24%-0.88+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 2 QC4.97 [4.01, 6.13]1.98-4.97 [-6.13, -4.01]5.53 [4.60, 6.55]12% [0%, 29%]12%24%-0.88+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 2 QC4.97 [4.02, 6.18]1.98-4.97 [-6.18, -4.02]5.53 [4.63, 6.63]12% [0%, 27%]12%24%-0.88+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC4.06 [3.16, 5.52]2.08-3.99 [-5.52, -3.06]4.73 [3.55, 6.11]12% [0%, 21%]24%41%-0.53+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC4.06 [3.06, 5.89]2.08-3.99 [-5.89, -2.93]4.73 [3.39, 6.47]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.53+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC4.06 [3.04, 5.70]2.08-3.99 [-5.70, -2.91]4.73 [3.38, 6.29]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.53+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC4.06 [3.07, 5.83]2.08-3.99 [-5.83, -2.93]4.73 [3.33, 6.29]12% [0%, 23%]24%41%-0.53+0.202026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC4.57 [3.84, 5.85]1.74-4.57 [-5.85, -3.84]5.02 [4.10, 6.33]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.72+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC4.57 [3.71, 6.49]1.74-4.57 [-6.49, -3.71]5.02 [3.97, 6.79]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.72+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC4.57 [3.75, 6.18]1.74-4.57 [-6.18, -3.75]5.02 [4.01, 6.62]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.72+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC4.57 [3.74, 6.21]1.74-4.57 [-6.21, -3.74]5.02 [3.98, 6.67]0% [0%, 0%]12%24%-0.72+0.332026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 2 QC1.63 [1.31, 2.18]1.64+0.13 [-0.97, 0.68]1.85 [1.45, 2.30]35% [11%, 50%]59%94%+0.41+0.372026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 2 QC1.63 [1.32, 2.23]1.64+0.13 [-1.83, 0.67]1.85 [1.47, 2.41]35% [0%, 50%]59%94%+0.41+0.372026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 2 QC1.63 [1.33, 2.21]1.64+0.13 [-2.19, 0.72]1.85 [1.47, 2.40]35% [0%, 50%]59%94%+0.41+0.372026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 2 QC1.63 [1.30, 2.21]1.64+0.13 [-1.86, 0.78]1.85 [1.45, 2.40]35% [0%, 54%]59%94%+0.41+0.372026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 2 QC1.84 [1.16, 2.26]1.79+0.94 [-0.10, 1.53]2.22 [1.40, 2.66]29% [15%, 43%]53%82%+0.33+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 2 QC1.84 [1.07, 2.31]1.79+0.94 [-0.83, 1.52]2.22 [1.16, 2.72]29% [0%, 44%]53%82%+0.33+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 2 QC1.84 [1.04, 2.32]1.79+0.94 [-1.16, 1.57]2.22 [1.16, 2.72]29% [0%, 44%]53%82%+0.33+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 2 QC1.84 [1.02, 2.32]1.79+0.94 [-0.84, 1.73]2.22 [1.16, 2.76]29% [0%, 45%]53%82%+0.33+0.312026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC1.76 [1.36, 2.28]1.71+0.91 [0.07, 1.36]2.22 [1.69, 2.77]41% [22%, 56%]65%82%+0.36+0.342026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC1.76 [1.37, 2.43]1.71+0.91 [-0.34, 1.39]2.22 [1.71, 2.89]41% [0%, 56%]65%82%+0.36+0.342026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC1.76 [1.31, 2.38]1.71+0.91 [-0.86, 1.45]2.22 [1.64, 2.91]41% [0%, 57%]65%82%+0.36+0.342026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC1.76 [1.34, 2.39]1.71+0.91 [-0.22, 1.40]2.22 [1.66, 2.90]41% [10%, 57%]65%82%+0.36+0.342026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC1.98 [1.42, 2.47]1.77+1.55 [0.72, 2.15]2.63 [1.81, 3.37]41% [29%, 64%]65%71%+0.28+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC1.98 [1.32, 2.59]1.77+1.55 [0.41, 2.29]2.63 [1.64, 3.53]41% [29%, 80%]65%71%+0.28+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC1.98 [0.98, 2.58]1.77+1.55 [0.03, 2.31]2.63 [0.98, 3.57]41% [29%, 100%]65%71%+0.28+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC1.98 [1.16, 2.55]1.77+1.55 [0.44, 2.22]2.63 [1.59, 3.54]41% [29%, 77%]65%71%+0.28+0.322026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -4.48 °F2026-08-15: -3.63 °F2026-08-16: -2.86 °F2026-08-17: -2.89 °F2026-08-18: -5.56 °F2026-08-19: -7.13 °F2026-08-20: +0.92 °F2026-08-21: -3.01 °F2026-08-22: +0.1 °F2026-08-23: -1.68 °F2026-08-24: -6.72 °F2026-08-25: -3.45 °F2026-08-26: -8.71 °F2026-08-27: -8.35 °F2026-08-28: -4.9 °F2026-08-29: -1.78 °F2026-08-30: -6.44 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.44
2026-08-29-1.78
2026-08-28-4.90
2026-08-27-8.35
2026-08-26-8.71
2026-08-25-3.45
2026-08-24-6.72
2026-08-23-1.68
2026-08-22+0.10
2026-08-21-3.01
2026-08-20+0.92
2026-08-19-7.13
2026-08-18-5.56
2026-08-17-2.89
2026-08-16-2.86
2026-08-15-3.63
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-4.48

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.63 · P90 |e| 7.62 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08174.27 -4.15

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 +0.15 [-1.28, 1.50] no
NCEP GFS 17 +2.02 [0.32, 4.11] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -1.05 [-2.00, 1.05] no
Persistence (baseline) 17 +1.62 [0.90, 2.48] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence