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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC3.95 [2.69, 5.47]1.93-3.85 [-5.47, -2.46]4.62 [3.17, 6.14]11% [0%, 24%]11%53%-0.63+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC3.95 [2.47, 5.58]1.93-3.85 [-5.58, -2.25]4.62 [2.79, 6.33]11% [0%, 25%]11%53%-0.63+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC3.95 [2.40, 5.67]1.93-3.85 [-5.67, -2.16]4.62 [2.76, 6.38]11% [0%, 27%]11%53%-0.63+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 2 QC3.95 [2.47, 5.78]1.93-3.85 [-5.78, -2.25]4.62 [2.79, 6.46]11% [0%, 27%]11%53%-0.63+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 2 QC4.66 [3.59, 5.94]1.66-4.66 [-5.94, -3.59]5.14 [3.90, 6.46]0% [0%, 0%]11%11%-0.93+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 2 QC4.66 [3.37, 6.07]1.66-4.66 [-6.07, -3.37]5.14 [3.63, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]11%11%-0.93+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 2 QC4.66 [3.37, 6.16]1.66-4.66 [-6.16, -3.37]5.14 [3.63, 6.67]0% [0%, 0%]11%11%-0.93+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 2 QC4.66 [3.38, 6.23]1.66-4.66 [-6.23, -3.38]5.14 [3.63, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]11%11%-0.93+0.322026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC3.05 [2.56, 3.64]1.63-3.05 [-3.64, -2.56]3.56 [3.03, 4.10]11% [0%, 23%]42%53%-0.26+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC3.05 [2.45, 3.67]1.63-3.05 [-3.67, -2.45]3.56 [2.91, 4.10]11% [0%, 24%]42%53%-0.26+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC3.05 [2.45, 3.69]1.63-3.05 [-3.69, -2.45]3.56 [2.91, 4.18]11% [0%, 25%]42%53%-0.26+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 2 QC3.05 [2.46, 3.79]1.63-3.05 [-3.79, -2.46]3.56 [2.95, 4.24]11% [0%, 27%]42%53%-0.26+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 2 QC3.99 [3.45, 4.56]1.71-3.99 [-4.56, -3.45]4.45 [3.75, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%-0.65+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 2 QC3.99 [3.38, 4.55]1.71-3.99 [-4.55, -3.38]4.45 [3.56, 5.01]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%-0.65+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 2 QC3.99 [3.37, 4.57]1.71-3.99 [-4.57, -3.37]4.45 [3.56, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%-0.65+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 2 QC3.99 [3.42, 4.63]1.71-3.99 [-4.63, -3.42]4.45 [3.61, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]21%42%-0.65+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 2 QC1.75 [1.23, 2.13]1.68+0.29 [-0.32, 0.72]2.09 [1.53, 2.45]32% [16%, 54%]63%79%+0.24+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 2 QC1.75 [1.02, 2.22]1.68+0.29 [-0.27, 0.74]2.09 [1.34, 2.51]32% [14%, 67%]63%79%+0.24+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 2 QC1.75 [1.00, 2.24]1.68+0.29 [-0.28, 0.76]2.09 [1.34, 2.51]32% [12%, 57%]63%79%+0.24+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 2 QC1.75 [1.03, 2.26]1.68+0.29 [-0.35, 0.75]2.09 [1.33, 2.53]32% [14%, 60%]63%79%+0.24+0.212026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 2 QC2.18 [1.69, 2.46]1.78+1.08 [0.39, 1.57]2.42 [1.96, 2.70]16% [4%, 42%]58%79%+0.06+0.162026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 2 QC2.18 [1.35, 2.50]1.78+1.08 [0.46, 1.57]2.42 [1.73, 2.76]16% [3%, 60%]58%79%+0.06+0.162026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 2 QC2.18 [1.33, 2.50]1.78+1.08 [0.42, 1.60]2.42 [1.66, 2.77]16% [0%, 60%]58%79%+0.06+0.162026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 2 QC2.18 [1.38, 2.50]1.78+1.08 [0.37, 1.60]2.42 [1.67, 2.76]16% [0%, 50%]58%79%+0.06+0.162026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 2 QC1.40 [0.92, 1.74]1.33+0.65 [0.16, 0.96]1.72 [1.23, 2.04]37% [25%, 57%]74%95%+0.39+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 2 QC1.40 [0.74, 1.76]1.33+0.65 [0.14, 0.95]1.72 [1.06, 2.04]37% [23%, 67%]74%95%+0.39+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 2 QC1.40 [0.73, 1.76]1.33+0.65 [-0.06, 0.96]1.72 [1.01, 2.04]37% [24%, 64%]74%95%+0.39+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 2 QC1.40 [0.73, 1.75]1.33+0.65 [-0.10, 0.98]1.72 [0.99, 2.03]37% [25%, 67%]74%95%+0.39+0.372026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 2 QC1.74 [1.34, 2.02]1.32+1.26 [0.77, 1.59]2.06 [1.58, 2.34]26% [12%, 45%]68%84%+0.25+0.382026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 2 QC1.74 [1.16, 2.05]1.32+1.26 [0.72, 1.59]2.06 [1.28, 2.35]26% [11%, 56%]68%84%+0.25+0.382026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 2 QC1.74 [0.93, 2.07]1.32+1.26 [0.57, 1.61]2.06 [1.01, 2.36]26% [8%, 50%]68%84%+0.25+0.382026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 2 QC1.74 [1.09, 2.01]1.32+1.26 [0.54, 1.60]2.06 [1.15, 2.34]26% [10%, 51%]68%84%+0.25+0.382026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -2.98 °F2026-08-13: -3.71 °F2026-08-14: -5.27 °F2026-08-15: -6.47 °F2026-08-16: -2.87 °F2026-08-17: -2.51 °F2026-08-18: -5.02 °F2026-08-19: -2.21 °F2026-08-20: +0.61 °F2026-08-21: +0.36 °F2026-08-22: -2.68 °F2026-08-23: -2.87 °F2026-08-24: -2.94 °F2026-08-25: -4.12 °F2026-08-26: -8.38 °F2026-08-27: -5.84 °F2026-08-28: -3.32 °F2026-08-29: -2.76 °F2026-08-30: -10.19 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-10.19
2026-08-29-2.76
2026-08-28-3.32
2026-08-27-5.84
2026-08-26-8.38
2026-08-25-4.12
2026-08-24-2.94
2026-08-23-2.87
2026-08-22-2.68
2026-08-21+0.36
2026-08-20+0.61
2026-08-19-2.21
2026-08-18-5.02
2026-08-17-2.51
2026-08-16-2.87
2026-08-15-6.47
2026-08-14-5.27
2026-08-13-3.71
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-2.98

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -2 °F: 10 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.98 · P90 |e| 6.85 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.004
-4.00-2.0010
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08193.95 -3.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -0.39 [-1.55, 0.92] no
NCEP GFS 19 +1.25 [-1.18, 4.13] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -1.47 [-2.55, -0.55] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 +1.53 [-0.19, 3.91] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence