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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KMIA · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.44 [3.76, 5.06]1.34-4.44 [-5.06, -3.76]4.77 [4.12, 5.29]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-0.81+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.44 [3.78, 5.05]1.34-4.44 [-5.05, -3.78]4.77 [4.15, 5.31]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-0.81+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.44 [3.71, 5.07]1.34-4.44 [-5.07, -3.71]4.77 [4.17, 5.31]4% [0%, 14%]4%17%-0.81+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.44 [3.65, 5.07]1.34-4.44 [-5.07, -3.65]4.77 [4.06, 5.32]4% [0%, 14%]4%17%-0.81+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 2 QC5.31 [4.64, 5.88]1.30-5.31 [-5.88, -4.64]5.57 [4.95, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-1.16+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 2 QC5.31 [4.65, 5.91]1.30-5.31 [-5.91, -4.65]5.57 [4.96, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-1.16+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 2 QC5.31 [4.63, 5.89]1.30-5.31 [-5.89, -4.63]5.57 [4.97, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-1.16+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 2 QC5.31 [4.58, 5.92]1.30-5.31 [-5.92, -4.58]5.57 [4.85, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-1.16+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.72 [4.32, 5.18]1.19-4.72 [-5.18, -4.32]4.94 [4.45, 5.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-0.92+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.72 [4.31, 5.17]1.19-4.72 [-5.17, -4.31]4.94 [4.44, 5.38]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-0.92+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.72 [4.30, 5.18]1.19-4.72 [-5.18, -4.30]4.94 [4.40, 5.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-0.92+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.72 [4.20, 5.24]1.19-4.72 [-5.24, -4.20]4.94 [4.35, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-0.92+0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC5.59 [5.12, 6.05]1.16-5.59 [-6.05, -5.12]5.77 [5.24, 6.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.27+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC5.59 [5.10, 6.03]1.16-5.59 [-6.03, -5.10]5.77 [5.18, 6.24]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.27+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC5.59 [5.04, 6.06]1.16-5.59 [-6.06, -5.04]5.77 [5.16, 6.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.27+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC5.59 [5.01, 6.11]1.16-5.59 [-6.11, -5.01]5.77 [5.11, 6.31]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.27+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC2.11 [1.55, 2.61]1.76+1.50 [0.02, 2.49]2.65 [1.93, 3.18]33% [15%, 53%]54%75%+0.32+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC2.11 [1.44, 2.64]1.76+1.50 [-0.46, 2.54]2.65 [1.81, 3.19]33% [14%, 57%]54%75%+0.32+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC2.11 [1.46, 2.70]1.76+1.50 [-0.56, 2.61]2.65 [1.81, 3.17]33% [14%, 57%]54%75%+0.32+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 2 QC2.11 [1.44, 2.75]1.76+1.50 [-0.53, 2.64]2.65 [1.81, 3.26]33% [11%, 58%]54%75%+0.32+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 2 QC2.57 [1.62, 3.30]1.79+2.25 [0.75, 3.27]3.15 [2.17, 3.80]17% [3%, 42%]42%58%+0.17+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 2 QC2.57 [1.29, 3.34]1.79+2.25 [0.26, 3.33]3.15 [1.87, 3.82]17% [0%, 50%]42%58%+0.17+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 2 QC2.57 [1.36, 3.41]1.79+2.25 [0.16, 3.39]3.15 [1.82, 3.86]17% [0%, 50%]42%58%+0.17+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 2 QC2.57 [1.35, 3.42]1.79+2.25 [0.20, 3.41]3.15 [1.80, 3.92]17% [0%, 50%]42%58%+0.17+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC1.78 [1.27, 2.23]1.60+1.23 [0.10, 2.08]2.28 [1.58, 2.76]33% [21%, 50%]67%79%+0.42+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC1.78 [1.20, 2.26]1.60+1.23 [-0.32, 2.09]2.28 [1.47, 2.77]33% [21%, 53%]67%79%+0.42+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC1.78 [1.16, 2.32]1.60+1.23 [-0.33, 2.18]2.28 [1.44, 2.79]33% [20%, 53%]67%79%+0.42+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC1.78 [1.15, 2.33]1.60+1.23 [-0.32, 2.19]2.28 [1.40, 2.81]33% [19%, 57%]67%79%+0.42+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC2.16 [1.28, 2.85]1.63+1.96 [0.82, 2.83]2.75 [1.88, 3.33]38% [17%, 64%]50%75%+0.30+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC2.16 [1.04, 2.87]1.63+1.96 [0.40, 2.86]2.75 [1.60, 3.35]38% [14%, 75%]50%75%+0.30+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC2.16 [1.05, 2.95]1.63+1.96 [0.40, 2.95]2.75 [1.57, 3.40]38% [14%, 71%]50%75%+0.30+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC2.16 [0.99, 2.96]1.63+1.96 [0.39, 2.96]2.75 [1.49, 3.41]38% [11%, 75%]50%75%+0.30+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -4.53 °F2026-08-08: -7.67 °F2026-08-09: -3.46 °F2026-08-10: -3.98 °F2026-08-11: -4.22 °F2026-08-12: -4.71 °F2026-08-13: -4.79 °F2026-08-14: -7.18 °F2026-08-15: -2.57 °F2026-08-16: -3.61 °F2026-08-17: -4.32 °F2026-08-18: -7.89 °F2026-08-19: -4.35 °F2026-08-20: -3.09 °F2026-08-21: -4.02 °F2026-08-22: -2.73 °F2026-08-23: -2.77 °F2026-08-24: -0.34 °F2026-08-25: -3.58 °F2026-08-26: -6.55 °F2026-08-27: -6.64 °F2026-08-28: -5.54 °F2026-08-29: -3.03 °F2026-08-30: -4.94 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.94
2026-08-29-3.03
2026-08-28-5.54
2026-08-27-6.64
2026-08-26-6.55
2026-08-25-3.58
2026-08-24-0.34
2026-08-23-2.77
2026-08-22-2.73
2026-08-21-4.02
2026-08-20-3.09
2026-08-19-4.35
2026-08-18-7.89
2026-08-17-4.32
2026-08-16-3.61
2026-08-15-2.57
2026-08-14-7.18
2026-08-13-4.79
2026-08-12-4.71
2026-08-11-4.22
2026-08-10-3.98
2026-08-09-3.46
2026-08-08-7.67
2026-08-07-4.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 3 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 8 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.27 · P90 |e| 7.02 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.003
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.008
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08244.44 -4.44

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +1.72 [0.72, 3.32] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -0.68 [-1.81, 0.24] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +0.39 [-0.92, 1.55] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +1.98 [1.03, 3.36] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence