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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KMIA · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC6.88 [6.39, 7.37]0.49-6.88 [-7.37, -6.39]6.90 [6.39, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.44+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC6.88 [6.39, 7.37]0.49-6.88 [-7.37, -6.39]6.90 [6.39, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.44+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC6.88 [6.39, 7.37]0.49-6.88 [-7.37, -6.39]6.90 [6.39, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.44+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 2 QC6.88 [6.39, 7.37]0.49-6.88 [-7.37, -6.39]6.90 [6.39, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.44+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 2 QC7.30 [6.90, 7.70]0.40-7.30 [-7.70, -6.90]7.31 [6.90, 7.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.65+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 2 QC7.30 [6.90, 7.70]0.40-7.30 [-7.70, -6.90]7.31 [6.90, 7.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.65+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 2 QC7.30 [6.90, 7.70]0.40-7.30 [-7.70, -6.90]7.31 [6.90, 7.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.65+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 2 QC7.30 [6.90, 7.70]0.40-7.30 [-7.70, -6.90]7.31 [6.90, 7.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.65+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 2 QC7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0.17-7.01 [-7.17, -6.84]7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.50+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 2 QC7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0.17-7.01 [-7.17, -6.84]7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.50+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 2 QC7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0.17-7.01 [-7.17, -6.84]7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.50+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 2 QC7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0.17-7.01 [-7.17, -6.84]7.01 [6.84, 7.17]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.50+0.922026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 2 QC7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0.06-7.41 [-7.48, -7.35]7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.71+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 2 QC7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0.06-7.41 [-7.48, -7.35]7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.71+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 2 QC7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0.06-7.41 [-7.48, -7.35]7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.71+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 2 QC7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0.06-7.41 [-7.48, -7.35]7.41 [7.35, 7.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-2.71+0.972026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 2 QC2.97 [1.65, 4.29]2.97+1.32 [-1.65, 4.29]3.25 [1.65, 4.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.34+0.342026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 2 QC2.97 [1.65, 4.29]2.97+1.32 [-1.65, 4.29]3.25 [1.65, 4.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.34+0.342026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 2 QC2.97 [1.65, 4.29]2.97+1.32 [-1.65, 4.29]3.25 [1.65, 4.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.34+0.342026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 2 QC2.97 [1.65, 4.29]2.97+1.32 [-1.65, 4.29]3.25 [1.65, 4.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.34+0.342026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 2 QC2.80 [0.62, 4.98]2.80+2.18 [-0.62, 4.98]3.55 [0.62, 4.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.38+0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 2 QC2.80 [0.62, 4.98]2.80+2.18 [-0.62, 4.98]3.55 [0.62, 4.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.38+0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 2 QC2.80 [0.62, 4.98]2.80+2.18 [-0.62, 4.98]3.55 [0.62, 4.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.38+0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 2 QC2.80 [0.62, 4.98]2.80+2.18 [-0.62, 4.98]3.55 [0.62, 4.98]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.38+0.382026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 2 QC3.13 [1.85, 4.40]3.13+1.28 [-1.85, 4.40]3.38 [1.85, 4.40]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.31+0.312026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 2 QC3.13 [1.85, 4.40]3.13+1.28 [-1.85, 4.40]3.38 [1.85, 4.40]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.31+0.312026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 2 QC3.13 [1.85, 4.40]3.13+1.28 [-1.85, 4.40]3.38 [1.85, 4.40]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.31+0.312026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 2 QC3.13 [1.85, 4.40]3.13+1.28 [-1.85, 4.40]3.38 [1.85, 4.40]0% [0%, 0%]50%50%+0.31+0.312026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 2 QC2.92 [0.91, 4.93]2.92+2.01 [-0.91, 4.93]3.55 [0.91, 4.93]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.35+0.352026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 2 QC2.92 [0.91, 4.93]2.92+2.01 [-0.91, 4.93]3.55 [0.91, 4.93]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.35+0.352026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 2 QC2.92 [0.91, 4.93]2.92+2.01 [-0.91, 4.93]3.55 [0.91, 4.93]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.35+0.352026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 2 QC2.92 [0.91, 4.93]2.92+2.01 [-0.91, 4.93]3.55 [0.91, 4.93]50% [0%, 100%]50%50%+0.35+0.352026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KMIA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -6.39 °F2026-08-30: -7.37 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.37
2026-08-29-6.39

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KMIA, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.88 · P90 |e| 7.27 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0826.88 -6.88

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +1.31 [0.96, 1.66] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 +0.44 [0.44, 0.44] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +2.04 [2.04, 2.04] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.90 [1.35, 2.44] yes
NCEP GFS 2 +5.74 [4.90, 6.58] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +1.29 [1.29, 1.29] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -0.22 [-0.33, -0.10] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +0.12 [-1.95, 2.19] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +1.37 [1.37, 1.37] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.33 [-0.07, 0.73] no
Persistence (baseline) 2 +4.88 [3.39, 6.37] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence