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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC4.02 [3.06, 5.17]1.63-4.02 [-5.17, -3.06]4.57 [3.48, 5.69]4% [0%, 12%]17%35%-1.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC4.02 [3.03, 5.35]1.63-4.02 [-5.35, -3.03]4.57 [3.41, 5.90]4% [0%, 12%]17%35%-1.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC4.02 [2.95, 5.54]1.63-4.02 [-5.54, -2.95]4.57 [3.38, 6.08]4% [0%, 12%]17%35%-1.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC4.02 [3.03, 5.61]1.63-4.02 [-5.61, -3.03]4.57 [3.41, 6.14]4% [0%, 12%]17%35%-1.72-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC4.56 [3.55, 5.59]1.65-4.56 [-5.59, -3.55]5.07 [3.91, 6.15]4% [0%, 12%]13%26%-2.09-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC4.56 [3.37, 5.83]1.65-4.56 [-5.83, -3.37]5.07 [3.69, 6.32]4% [0%, 12%]13%26%-2.09-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC4.56 [3.27, 5.97]1.65-4.56 [-5.97, -3.27]5.07 [3.60, 6.51]4% [0%, 12%]13%26%-2.09-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC4.56 [3.38, 5.98]1.65-4.56 [-5.98, -3.38]5.07 [3.73, 6.44]4% [0%, 12%]13%26%-2.09-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC3.42 [2.81, 4.05]1.25-3.42 [-4.05, -2.81]3.81 [3.32, 4.33]4% [0%, 12%]21%42%-1.34+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC3.42 [2.78, 4.09]1.25-3.42 [-4.09, -2.78]3.81 [3.24, 4.38]4% [0%, 11%]21%42%-1.34+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC3.42 [2.73, 4.15]1.25-3.42 [-4.15, -2.73]3.81 [3.20, 4.40]4% [0%, 12%]21%42%-1.34+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC3.42 [2.76, 4.13]1.25-3.42 [-4.13, -2.76]3.81 [3.20, 4.38]4% [0%, 12%]21%42%-1.34+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC4.12 [3.45, 4.85]1.34-4.12 [-4.85, -3.45]4.51 [3.97, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]17%21%-1.83+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC4.12 [3.42, 4.85]1.34-4.12 [-4.85, -3.42]4.51 [3.90, 5.02]0% [0%, 0%]17%21%-1.83+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC4.12 [3.36, 4.94]1.34-4.12 [-4.94, -3.36]4.51 [3.83, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]17%21%-1.83+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC4.12 [3.44, 4.89]1.34-4.12 [-4.89, -3.44]4.51 [3.84, 5.07]0% [0%, 0%]17%21%-1.83+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC1.68 [1.38, 2.03]1.68-0.17 [-1.02, 0.52]2.02 [1.72, 2.33]30% [14%, 44%]57%87%+0.30+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC1.68 [1.38, 2.07]1.68-0.17 [-1.11, 0.62]2.02 [1.70, 2.36]30% [8%, 43%]57%87%+0.30+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC1.68 [1.36, 2.07]1.68-0.17 [-1.02, 0.67]2.02 [1.70, 2.33]30% [6%, 45%]57%87%+0.30+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC1.68 [1.33, 2.09]1.68-0.17 [-1.04, 0.61]2.02 [1.66, 2.35]30% [0%, 44%]57%87%+0.30+0.302026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC1.86 [1.60, 2.12]1.76+0.49 [-0.35, 1.27]2.19 [1.93, 2.41]35% [19%, 48%]61%74%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC1.86 [1.61, 2.20]1.76+0.49 [-0.45, 1.41]2.19 [1.94, 2.44]35% [18%, 50%]61%74%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC1.86 [1.57, 2.15]1.76+0.49 [-0.42, 1.43]2.19 [1.92, 2.42]35% [14%, 50%]61%74%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC1.86 [1.60, 2.24]1.76+0.49 [-0.47, 1.51]2.19 [1.91, 2.43]35% [12%, 50%]61%74%+0.22+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC1.46 [1.09, 1.89]1.41-0.31 [-1.55, 0.53]1.82 [1.41, 2.27]50% [33%, 63%]67%92%+0.40+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC1.46 [1.05, 1.98]1.41-0.31 [-1.82, 0.60]1.82 [1.38, 2.39]50% [33%, 67%]67%92%+0.40+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC1.46 [1.07, 2.00]1.41-0.31 [-1.81, 0.68]1.82 [1.40, 2.38]50% [33%, 66%]67%92%+0.40+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC1.46 [0.96, 2.00]1.41-0.31 [-1.81, 0.67]1.82 [1.28, 2.44]50% [33%, 67%]67%92%+0.40+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC1.56 [1.14, 2.00]1.53+0.54 [-0.76, 1.38]1.95 [1.51, 2.34]38% [23%, 55%]67%79%+0.36+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC1.56 [1.01, 2.00]1.53+0.54 [-1.21, 1.48]1.95 [1.41, 2.34]38% [22%, 60%]67%79%+0.36+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC1.56 [1.01, 2.01]1.53+0.54 [-1.07, 1.50]1.95 [1.37, 2.34]38% [21%, 60%]67%79%+0.36+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC1.56 [0.95, 2.01]1.53+0.54 [-1.19, 1.52]1.95 [1.30, 2.35]38% [22%, 61%]67%79%+0.36+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -3.41 °F2026-08-09: -3.65 °F2026-08-10: -4.03 °F2026-08-11: -4.81 °F2026-08-12: -2.78 °F2026-08-13: -4.21 °F2026-08-14: -6.67 °F2026-08-15: -2.1 °F2026-08-16: -2.91 °F2026-08-17: -1.49 °F2026-08-18: -4.68 °F2026-08-19: -0.86 °F2026-08-20: -1.53 °F2026-08-21: -3.58 °F2026-08-22: -2.51 °F2026-08-23: -6.21 °F2026-08-24: -1.11 °F2026-08-25: -4.86 °F2026-08-26: -8.98 °F2026-08-27: -5.05 °F2026-08-28: -3.64 °F2026-08-29: -4.2 °F2026-08-30: -9.32 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-9.32
2026-08-29-4.20
2026-08-28-3.64
2026-08-27-5.05
2026-08-26-8.98
2026-08-25-4.86
2026-08-24-1.11
2026-08-23-6.21
2026-08-22-2.51
2026-08-21-3.58
2026-08-20-1.53
2026-08-19-0.86
2026-08-18-4.68
2026-08-17-1.49
2026-08-16-2.91
2026-08-15-2.10
2026-08-14-6.67
2026-08-13-4.21
2026-08-12-2.78
2026-08-11-4.81
2026-08-10-4.03
2026-08-09-3.65
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-3.41

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.65 · P90 |e| 6.58 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.02 -4.02

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.20 [-0.76, 0.53] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 +2.39 [2.39, 2.39] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.12 [-2.19, 1.95] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +3.99 [3.99, 3.99] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.77 [0.24, 3.31] yes
NCEP GFS 23 +2.21 [1.06, 3.89] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 +3.24 [3.24, 3.24] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.19 [-0.93, 0.86] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +3.32 [3.32, 3.32] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.21 [-1.46, 1.88] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +2.55 [0.78, 4.25] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence