Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · NCEP GFS · lead day 1

KMIA · gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 2 QC1.65 [1.25, 2.17]1.02-1.39 [-2.07, -0.82]1.94 [1.46, 2.46]28% [10%, 48%]72%93%-0.06+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 2 QC1.65 [1.23, 2.14]1.02-1.39 [-2.06, -0.67]1.94 [1.41, 2.43]28% [10%, 50%]72%93%-0.06+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 2 QC1.65 [1.23, 2.23]1.02-1.39 [-2.13, -0.59]1.94 [1.38, 2.53]28% [9%, 50%]72%93%-0.06+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 2 QC1.65 [1.21, 2.16]1.02-1.39 [-2.08, -0.64]1.94 [1.41, 2.47]28% [8%, 50%]72%93%-0.06+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 2 QC3.16 [2.51, 3.96]1.15-3.16 [-3.96, -2.51]3.49 [2.84, 4.19]10% [0%, 22%]21%41%-1.04+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 2 QC3.16 [2.37, 3.92]1.15-3.16 [-3.92, -2.37]3.49 [2.70, 4.16]10% [0%, 29%]21%41%-1.04+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 2 QC3.16 [2.33, 3.99]1.15-3.16 [-3.99, -2.33]3.49 [2.64, 4.24]10% [0%, 32%]21%41%-1.04+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 2 QC3.16 [2.33, 3.96]1.15-3.16 [-3.96, -2.33]3.49 [2.70, 4.19]10% [0%, 31%]21%41%-1.04+0.272026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 2 QC1.90 [1.46, 2.38]0.99-1.63 [-2.27, -1.05]2.08 [1.60, 2.52]17% [7%, 31%]52%93%-0.23+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 2 QC1.90 [1.41, 2.34]0.99-1.63 [-2.26, -0.97]2.08 [1.51, 2.50]17% [5%, 33%]52%93%-0.23+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 2 QC1.90 [1.42, 2.39]0.99-1.63 [-2.27, -0.96]2.08 [1.54, 2.56]17% [4%, 33%]52%93%-0.23+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 2 QC1.90 [1.34, 2.37]0.99-1.63 [-2.27, -0.93]2.08 [1.43, 2.51]17% [4%, 33%]52%93%-0.23+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 2 QC3.50 [2.74, 4.31]1.25-3.50 [-4.31, -2.74]3.82 [3.05, 4.50]10% [3%, 17%]14%31%-1.26+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 2 QC3.50 [2.67, 4.28]1.25-3.50 [-4.28, -2.67]3.82 [2.93, 4.47]10% [0%, 20%]14%31%-1.26+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 2 QC3.50 [2.65, 4.33]1.25-3.50 [-4.33, -2.65]3.82 [2.94, 4.54]10% [0%, 19%]14%31%-1.26+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 2 QC3.50 [2.61, 4.33]1.25-3.50 [-4.33, -2.61]3.82 [2.82, 4.51]10% [0%, 19%]14%31%-1.26+0.212026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 2 QC4.84 [3.94, 5.83]1.84+4.78 [3.92, 5.75]5.33 [4.40, 6.20]7% [0%, 15%]10%28%-0.87+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 2 QC4.84 [3.93, 6.05]1.84+4.78 [3.89, 5.97]5.33 [4.42, 6.39]7% [0%, 16%]10%28%-0.87+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 2 QC4.84 [3.91, 6.18]1.84+4.78 [3.86, 6.08]5.33 [4.37, 6.48]7% [0%, 17%]10%28%-0.87+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 2 QC4.84 [3.87, 6.04]1.84+4.78 [3.80, 5.93]5.33 [4.38, 6.44]7% [0%, 18%]10%28%-0.87+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 2 QC5.21 [4.26, 6.20]1.90+5.21 [4.26, 6.20]5.72 [4.79, 6.60]3% [0%, 11%]7%21%-1.02+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 2 QC5.21 [4.25, 6.44]1.90+5.21 [4.25, 6.44]5.72 [4.76, 6.78]3% [0%, 12%]7%21%-1.02+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 2 QC5.21 [4.17, 6.55]1.90+5.21 [4.17, 6.55]5.72 [4.70, 6.88]3% [0%, 12%]7%21%-1.02+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 2 QC5.21 [4.12, 6.41]1.90+5.21 [4.12, 6.41]5.72 [4.72, 6.84]3% [0%, 14%]7%21%-1.02+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 2 QC4.63 [3.83, 5.42]1.68+4.63 [3.83, 5.42]5.08 [4.28, 5.79]3% [0%, 10%]7%28%-0.79+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 2 QC4.63 [3.79, 5.56]1.68+4.63 [3.79, 5.56]5.08 [4.24, 5.93]3% [0%, 10%]7%28%-0.79+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 2 QC4.63 [3.73, 5.59]1.68+4.63 [3.73, 5.59]5.08 [4.19, 5.96]3% [0%, 11%]7%28%-0.79+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 2 QC4.63 [3.73, 5.59]1.68+4.63 [3.73, 5.59]5.08 [4.18, 5.97]3% [0%, 11%]7%28%-0.79+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 2 QC5.05 [4.13, 5.91]1.75+5.05 [4.13, 5.91]5.48 [4.59, 6.23]0% [0%, 0%]7%17%-0.95+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 2 QC5.05 [4.10, 6.03]1.75+5.05 [4.10, 6.03]5.48 [4.58, 6.35]0% [0%, 0%]7%17%-0.95+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 2 QC5.05 [4.02, 6.05]1.75+5.05 [4.02, 6.05]5.48 [4.49, 6.36]0% [0%, 0%]7%17%-0.95+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 2 QC5.05 [3.99, 6.05]1.75+5.05 [3.99, 6.05]5.48 [4.45, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]7%17%-0.95+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMIA, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-02: -3 °F2026-08-03: -0.98 °F2026-08-04: -0.54 °F2026-08-05: -0.71 °F2026-08-06: +1.29 °F2026-08-07: -1.25 °F2026-08-08: -1.38 °F2026-08-09: -1.58 °F2026-08-10: -1.92 °F2026-08-11: -2.8 °F2026-08-12: -3.94 °F2026-08-13: -1.24 °F2026-08-14: -4.43 °F2026-08-15: -1.99 °F2026-08-16: -2.25 °F2026-08-17: -1.68 °F2026-08-18: -2.43 °F2026-08-19: +0.15 °F2026-08-20: +0.06 °F2026-08-21: -1.47 °F2026-08-22: -2.89 °F2026-08-23: -1.52 °F2026-08-24: -0.27 °F2026-08-25: -0.87 °F2026-08-26: -1.26 °F2026-08-27: -1.59 °F2026-08-28: -2.07 °F2026-08-29: +1.49 °F2026-08-30: +0.78 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.78
2026-08-29+1.49
2026-08-28-2.07
2026-08-27-1.59
2026-08-26-1.26
2026-08-25-0.87
2026-08-24-0.27
2026-08-23-1.52
2026-08-22-2.89
2026-08-21-1.47
2026-08-20+0.06
2026-08-19+0.15
2026-08-18-2.43
2026-08-17-1.68
2026-08-16-2.25
2026-08-15-1.99
2026-08-14-4.43
2026-08-13-1.24
2026-08-12-3.94
2026-08-11-2.80
2026-08-10-1.92
2026-08-09-1.58
2026-08-08-1.38
2026-08-07-1.25
2026-08-06+1.29
2026-08-05-0.71
2026-08-04-0.54
2026-08-03-0.98
2026-08-02-3.00

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMIA, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 3 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 6 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 4 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 0.5 °F: 2 days0.5 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 1.5 °F: 2 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.49 · P90 |e| 2.91 °F-50+5 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.001
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.503
-2.50-2.003
-2.00-1.506
-1.50-1.005
-1.00-0.504
-0.50+0.001
+0.00+0.502
+0.50+1.001
+1.00+1.502
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08291.65 -1.39

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 29 -2.70 [-3.81, -1.81] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -6.15 [-6.15, -6.15] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -5.74 [-6.58, -4.90] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -4.55 [-4.55, -4.55] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -3.85 [-5.23, -2.47] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -5.29 [-5.29, -5.29] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -2.80 [-4.59, -1.55] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -2.21 [-3.89, -1.06] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -5.21 [-5.21, -5.21] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -5.41 [-6.66, -4.17] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 +0.10 [-0.71, 0.94] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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