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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.92 [2.78, 5.25]2.11-3.66 [-5.25, -2.18]4.66 [2.97, 6.10]6% [0%, 13%]22%56%-1.01-0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.92 [2.62, 5.31]2.11-3.66 [-5.31, -2.01]4.66 [2.80, 6.21]6% [0%, 13%]22%56%-1.01-0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.92 [2.58, 5.28]2.11-3.66 [-5.28, -1.94]4.66 [2.80, 6.19]6% [0%, 14%]22%56%-1.01-0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.92 [2.55, 5.24]2.11-3.66 [-5.24, -1.98]4.66 [2.69, 6.13]6% [0%, 14%]22%56%-1.01-0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC4.44 [3.29, 5.76]1.93-4.30 [-5.76, -2.96]5.08 [3.56, 6.52]0% [0%, 0%]11%33%-1.28+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC4.44 [3.12, 5.83]1.93-4.30 [-5.83, -2.82]5.08 [3.38, 6.60]0% [0%, 0%]11%33%-1.28+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC4.44 [3.11, 5.79]1.93-4.30 [-5.79, -2.76]5.08 [3.38, 6.51]0% [0%, 0%]11%33%-1.28+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC4.44 [3.10, 5.76]1.93-4.30 [-5.76, -2.75]5.08 [3.27, 6.51]0% [0%, 0%]11%33%-1.28+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC4.20 [2.99, 5.98]2.06-4.07 [-5.98, -2.70]4.88 [3.30, 6.60]5% [0%, 12%]15%40%-1.05+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC4.20 [2.91, 6.34]2.06-4.07 [-6.34, -2.59]4.88 [3.21, 6.85]5% [0%, 12%]15%40%-1.05+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC4.20 [2.91, 6.48]2.06-4.07 [-6.48, -2.57]4.88 [3.20, 7.04]5% [0%, 13%]15%40%-1.05+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 2 QC4.20 [2.96, 6.60]2.06-4.07 [-6.60, -2.69]4.88 [3.26, 7.15]5% [0%, 14%]15%40%-1.05+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 2 QC4.90 [3.70, 6.62]1.85-4.89 [-6.62, -3.68]5.45 [4.08, 7.02]5% [0%, 12%]10%15%-1.39+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 2 QC4.90 [3.63, 6.92]1.85-4.89 [-6.92, -3.61]5.45 [4.00, 7.30]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.39+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 2 QC4.90 [3.59, 7.02]1.85-4.89 [-7.02, -3.57]5.45 [3.98, 7.42]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.39+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 2 QC4.90 [3.65, 7.18]1.85-4.89 [-7.18, -3.63]5.45 [4.04, 7.52]5% [0%, 13%]10%15%-1.39+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC1.25 [0.83, 2.38]1.32+0.61 [-0.11, 2.07]1.92 [1.17, 3.38]61% [44%, 73%]83%89%+0.22+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC1.25 [0.81, 3.04]1.32+0.61 [-0.23, 2.69]1.92 [1.13, 3.97]61% [38%, 75%]83%89%+0.22+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC1.25 [0.78, 2.86]1.32+0.61 [-0.28, 2.68]1.92 [1.04, 3.78]61% [33%, 75%]83%89%+0.22+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC1.25 [0.75, 2.84]1.32+0.61 [-0.24, 2.53]1.92 [1.01, 3.74]61% [36%, 75%]83%89%+0.22+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC1.54 [1.05, 2.64]1.39+1.26 [0.59, 2.58]2.17 [1.43, 3.51]50% [29%, 67%]72%83%+0.05+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC1.54 [0.93, 3.19]1.39+1.26 [0.42, 3.16]2.17 [1.28, 4.08]50% [20%, 70%]72%83%+0.05+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC1.54 [0.91, 3.24]1.39+1.26 [0.42, 3.24]2.17 [1.25, 4.03]50% [15%, 72%]72%83%+0.05+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC1.54 [0.94, 3.14]1.39+1.26 [0.44, 3.09]2.17 [1.27, 3.88]50% [22%, 71%]72%83%+0.05+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC1.82 [1.26, 2.89]1.87+0.53 [0.04, 1.64]2.35 [1.76, 3.52]45% [19%, 67%]60%70%+0.02-0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC1.82 [1.20, 3.54]1.87+0.53 [-0.09, 2.44]2.35 [1.69, 4.04]45% [12%, 69%]60%70%+0.02-0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC1.82 [1.15, 3.27]1.87+0.53 [-0.14, 1.97]2.35 [1.69, 3.83]45% [0%, 70%]60%70%+0.02-0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 2 QC1.82 [1.15, 3.35]1.87+0.53 [-0.10, 2.05]2.35 [1.66, 3.85]45% [0%, 71%]60%70%+0.02-0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 2 QC2.03 [1.53, 3.00]1.81+1.22 [0.77, 2.24]2.55 [1.99, 3.62]40% [18%, 62%]50%70%-0.10+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 2 QC2.03 [1.47, 3.57]1.81+1.22 [0.65, 2.92]2.55 [1.89, 4.15]40% [12%, 63%]50%70%-0.10+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 2 QC2.03 [1.46, 3.32]1.81+1.22 [0.64, 2.59]2.55 [1.86, 3.84]40% [0%, 67%]50%70%-0.10+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 2 QC2.03 [1.44, 3.38]1.81+1.22 [0.66, 2.66]2.55 [1.89, 3.99]40% [0%, 62%]50%70%-0.10+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -5.14 °F2026-08-12: -3.93 °F2026-08-13: -3.72 °F2026-08-14: -4.87 °F2026-08-16: -2.6 °F2026-08-17: -2.93 °F2026-08-19: -2 °F2026-08-20: +2.3 °F2026-08-21: -2.7 °F2026-08-22: -2.93 °F2026-08-23: -1.62 °F2026-08-24: -0.88 °F2026-08-25: -4.71 °F2026-08-26: -10.44 °F2026-08-27: -5.86 °F2026-08-28: -9.62 °F2026-08-29: -2.59 °F2026-08-30: -1.69 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.69
2026-08-29-2.59
2026-08-28-9.62
2026-08-27-5.86
2026-08-26-10.44
2026-08-25-4.71
2026-08-24-0.88
2026-08-23-1.62
2026-08-22-2.93
2026-08-21-2.70
2026-08-20+2.30
2026-08-19-2.00
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-2.93
2026-08-16-2.60
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.87
2026-08-13-3.72
2026-08-12-3.93
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-5.14

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -2 °F: 7 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.93 · P90 |e| 6.99 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.004
-4.00-2.007
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.92 -3.66

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.40 [-1.32, 0.78] no
NCEP GFS 18 +2.15 [0.79, 4.25] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -1.17 [-1.89, 0.05] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.97 [0.13, 3.66] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence