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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 9

KMIA · aifs_single · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 2 QC4.48 [3.98, 4.92]1.33-4.48 [-4.92, -3.98]4.80 [4.23, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]5%29%-0.52+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 2 QC4.48 [3.98, 4.95]1.33-4.48 [-4.95, -3.98]4.80 [4.23, 5.24]0% [0%, 0%]5%29%-0.52+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 2 QC4.48 [3.96, 4.90]1.33-4.48 [-4.90, -3.96]4.80 [4.21, 5.25]0% [0%, 0%]5%29%-0.52+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 2 QC4.48 [3.82, 4.91]1.33-4.48 [-4.91, -3.82]4.80 [4.07, 5.25]0% [0%, 0%]5%29%-0.52+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 2 QC5.39 [4.84, 5.86]1.29-5.39 [-5.86, -4.84]5.65 [5.03, 6.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.83+0.572026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 2 QC5.39 [4.84, 5.86]1.29-5.39 [-5.86, -4.84]5.65 [5.04, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.83+0.572026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 2 QC5.39 [4.82, 5.86]1.29-5.39 [-5.86, -4.82]5.65 [4.98, 6.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.83+0.572026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 2 QC5.39 [4.75, 5.86]1.29-5.39 [-5.86, -4.75]5.65 [4.92, 6.17]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.83+0.572026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC4.54 [3.94, 5.12]1.37-4.54 [-5.12, -3.94]4.87 [4.20, 5.45]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.54+0.542026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC4.54 [3.94, 5.16]1.37-4.54 [-5.16, -3.94]4.87 [4.23, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.54+0.542026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC4.54 [3.87, 5.11]1.37-4.54 [-5.11, -3.87]4.87 [4.15, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.54+0.542026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 2 QC4.54 [3.73, 5.13]1.37-4.54 [-5.13, -3.73]4.87 [3.98, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.54+0.542026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 2 QC5.46 [4.82, 6.04]1.30-5.46 [-6.04, -4.82]5.74 [5.02, 6.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.85+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 2 QC5.46 [4.83, 6.07]1.30-5.46 [-6.07, -4.83]5.74 [5.03, 6.35]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.85+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 2 QC5.46 [4.77, 6.05]1.30-5.46 [-6.05, -4.77]5.74 [4.95, 6.35]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.85+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 2 QC5.46 [4.65, 6.05]1.30-5.46 [-6.05, -4.65]5.74 [4.83, 6.34]0% [0%, 0%]0%5%-0.85+0.562026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 2 QC2.40 [1.79, 3.00]1.85+1.98 [0.73, 2.84]2.92 [2.25, 3.41]33% [19%, 50%]48%62%+0.33+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 2 QC2.40 [1.78, 3.05]1.85+1.98 [0.24, 2.87]2.92 [2.18, 3.40]33% [18%, 50%]48%62%+0.33+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 2 QC2.40 [1.74, 3.05]1.85+1.98 [0.38, 3.00]2.92 [2.15, 3.41]33% [14%, 50%]48%62%+0.33+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 2 QC2.40 [1.72, 3.05]1.85+1.98 [0.42, 2.96]2.92 [2.10, 3.42]33% [14%, 50%]48%62%+0.33+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 2 QC2.90 [2.09, 3.59]1.84+2.70 [1.46, 3.54]3.46 [2.63, 4.00]24% [11%, 37%]38%52%+0.19+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 2 QC2.90 [1.96, 3.63]1.84+2.70 [1.01, 3.59]3.46 [2.49, 4.01]24% [10%, 38%]38%52%+0.19+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 2 QC2.90 [2.00, 3.71]1.84+2.70 [1.17, 3.69]3.46 [2.57, 4.03]24% [10%, 39%]38%52%+0.19+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 2 QC2.90 [1.98, 3.69]1.84+2.70 [1.19, 3.69]3.46 [2.56, 4.06]24% [11%, 40%]38%52%+0.19+0.492026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC2.06 [1.64, 2.51]1.63+1.57 [0.47, 2.28]2.54 [2.06, 2.94]29% [14%, 43%]52%76%+0.42+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC2.06 [1.65, 2.51]1.63+1.57 [0.14, 2.32]2.54 [2.06, 2.92]29% [10%, 47%]52%76%+0.42+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC2.06 [1.65, 2.52]1.63+1.57 [0.24, 2.33]2.54 [2.02, 2.97]29% [11%, 50%]52%76%+0.42+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 2 QC2.06 [1.60, 2.52]1.63+1.57 [0.24, 2.37]2.54 [1.98, 2.96]29% [11%, 50%]52%76%+0.42+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 2 QC2.59 [1.93, 3.16]1.69+2.37 [1.25, 3.13]3.12 [2.44, 3.62]24% [10%, 43%]38%62%+0.28+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 2 QC2.59 [1.85, 3.21]1.69+2.37 [0.93, 3.18]3.12 [2.36, 3.63]24% [7%, 50%]38%62%+0.28+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 2 QC2.59 [1.89, 3.21]1.69+2.37 [1.06, 3.21]3.12 [2.40, 3.64]24% [7%, 50%]38%62%+0.28+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 2 QC2.59 [1.90, 3.26]1.69+2.37 [1.00, 3.22]3.12 [2.39, 3.64]24% [0%, 50%]38%62%+0.28+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: -5.06 °F2026-08-11: -4.41 °F2026-08-12: -4.4 °F2026-08-13: -4.37 °F2026-08-14: -7.55 °F2026-08-15: -2.74 °F2026-08-16: -3.83 °F2026-08-17: -2.57 °F2026-08-18: -8.71 °F2026-08-19: -5.13 °F2026-08-20: -2.21 °F2026-08-21: -5.38 °F2026-08-22: -5.24 °F2026-08-23: -4.22 °F2026-08-24: -2.78 °F2026-08-25: -1.73 °F2026-08-26: -3.85 °F2026-08-27: -6.53 °F2026-08-28: -6.22 °F2026-08-29: -2.88 °F2026-08-30: -4.32 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.32
2026-08-29-2.88
2026-08-28-6.22
2026-08-27-6.53
2026-08-26-3.85
2026-08-25-1.73
2026-08-24-2.78
2026-08-23-4.22
2026-08-22-5.24
2026-08-21-5.38
2026-08-20-2.21
2026-08-19-5.13
2026-08-18-8.71
2026-08-17-2.57
2026-08-16-3.83
2026-08-15-2.74
2026-08-14-7.55
2026-08-13-4.37
2026-08-12-4.40
2026-08-11-4.41
2026-08-10-5.06

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.37 · P90 |e| 6.53 °F-100+10 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08214.48 -4.48

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 21 +1.84 [0.76, 3.12] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.53 [-1.42, 0.40] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 +0.56 [-0.94, 1.87] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 +1.53 [0.76, 2.53] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA aifs_single lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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