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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 2 QC3.85 [2.64, 5.42]2.71-3.63 [-5.40, -2.38]5.04 [3.05, 6.92]12% [0%, 26%]38%50%-0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 2 QC3.85 [2.66, 5.43]2.71-3.63 [-5.42, -2.38]5.04 [3.02, 7.05]12% [0%, 25%]38%50%-0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 2 QC3.85 [2.61, 5.43]2.71-3.63 [-5.42, -2.38]5.04 [2.90, 6.98]12% [0%, 27%]38%50%-0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 2 QC3.85 [2.37, 5.42]2.71-3.63 [-5.42, -2.30]5.04 [2.57, 6.98]12% [0%, 26%]38%50%-0.37-0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 2 QC4.28 [3.16, 5.66]2.58-4.28 [-5.66, -3.16]5.34 [3.63, 6.96]12% [0%, 27%]25%44%-0.52+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 2 QC4.28 [3.19, 5.81]2.58-4.28 [-5.81, -3.19]5.34 [3.51, 7.05]12% [0%, 26%]25%44%-0.52+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 2 QC4.28 [3.05, 5.81]2.58-4.28 [-5.81, -3.05]5.34 [3.32, 7.00]12% [0%, 29%]25%44%-0.52+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 2 QC4.28 [2.85, 5.81]2.58-4.28 [-5.81, -2.85]5.34 [3.07, 7.01]12% [0%, 29%]25%44%-0.52+0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 2 QC3.92 [2.73, 5.64]2.61-3.80 [-5.64, -2.56]5.05 [3.08, 6.79]7% [0%, 15%]40%53%-0.31+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 2 QC3.92 [2.75, 6.76]2.61-3.80 [-6.76, -2.57]5.05 [3.08, 7.23]7% [0%, 15%]40%53%-0.31+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 2 QC3.92 [2.74, 6.36]2.61-3.80 [-6.36, -2.58]5.05 [3.12, 7.23]7% [0%, 15%]40%53%-0.31+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 2 QC3.92 [2.34, 6.36]2.61-3.80 [-6.36, -2.07]5.05 [2.52, 7.23]7% [0%, 16%]40%53%-0.31+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 2 QC4.66 [3.58, 6.02]2.30-4.66 [-6.02, -3.58]5.47 [3.98, 6.90]7% [0%, 15%]13%33%-0.55+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 2 QC4.66 [3.67, 7.16]2.30-4.66 [-7.16, -3.67]5.47 [4.05, 7.72]7% [0%, 15%]13%33%-0.55+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 2 QC4.66 [3.67, 6.75]2.30-4.66 [-6.75, -3.67]5.47 [4.10, 7.46]7% [0%, 15%]13%33%-0.55+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 2 QC4.66 [3.26, 6.74]2.30-4.66 [-6.74, -3.26]5.47 [3.56, 7.46]7% [0%, 16%]13%33%-0.55+0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 2 QC1.89 [1.15, 2.77]1.85+0.68 [-1.42, 1.59]2.41 [1.47, 3.16]38% [9%, 63%]69%75%+0.43+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 2 QC1.89 [1.14, 3.56]1.85+0.68 [-3.50, 1.70]2.41 [1.41, 3.70]38% [0%, 63%]69%75%+0.43+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 2 QC1.89 [1.02, 3.20]1.85+0.68 [-2.85, 1.74]2.41 [1.24, 3.49]38% [0%, 67%]69%75%+0.43+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 2 QC1.89 [0.98, 3.18]1.85+0.68 [-2.94, 1.73]2.41 [1.23, 3.53]38% [0%, 67%]69%75%+0.43+0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 2 QC2.20 [1.25, 3.20]2.02+1.28 [-0.91, 2.26]2.85 [1.67, 3.69]31% [0%, 62%]62%75%+0.34+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 2 QC2.20 [1.20, 3.58]2.02+1.28 [-3.31, 2.36]2.85 [1.60, 3.86]31% [0%, 62%]62%75%+0.34+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 2 QC2.20 [1.08, 3.43]2.02+1.28 [-2.62, 2.45]2.85 [1.38, 3.82]31% [0%, 65%]62%75%+0.34+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 2 QC2.20 [1.10, 3.41]2.02+1.28 [-2.62, 2.45]2.85 [1.36, 3.82]31% [0%, 64%]62%75%+0.34+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 2 QC2.13 [1.39, 3.10]2.12+0.35 [-1.44, 1.13]2.57 [1.88, 3.37]20% [0%, 50%]47%80%+0.39+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 2 QC2.13 [1.28, 3.99]2.12+0.35 [-3.47, 1.17]2.57 [1.72, 4.13]20% [0%, 50%]47%80%+0.39+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 2 QC2.13 [1.18, 3.58]2.12+0.35 [-2.70, 1.17]2.57 [1.65, 3.83]20% [0%, 50%]47%80%+0.39+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 2 QC2.13 [1.15, 3.62]2.12+0.35 [-2.98, 1.19]2.57 [1.60, 3.92]20% [0%, 55%]47%80%+0.39+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 2 QC2.22 [1.53, 2.96]2.14+0.92 [-0.70, 1.67]2.71 [2.03, 3.32]40% [17%, 62%]47%60%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 2 QC2.22 [1.50, 3.42]2.14+0.92 [-2.58, 1.71]2.71 [1.98, 3.52]40% [0%, 67%]47%60%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 2 QC2.22 [1.45, 3.33]2.14+0.92 [-1.82, 1.73]2.71 [1.90, 3.52]40% [0%, 67%]47%60%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 2 QC2.22 [1.39, 3.32]2.14+0.92 [-2.04, 1.74]2.71 [1.77, 3.52]40% [0%, 67%]47%60%+0.36+0.352026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -5.26 °F2026-08-16: -2.11 °F2026-08-17: -1.94 °F2026-08-18: -4.33 °F2026-08-19: -1.14 °F2026-08-20: -3.01 °F2026-08-21: -5.94 °F2026-08-22: -3.46 °F2026-08-23: +1.23 °F2026-08-24: +0.56 °F2026-08-25: -5.56 °F2026-08-26: -0.65 °F2026-08-27: -10.1 °F2026-08-28: -12.24 °F2026-08-29: -2.49 °F2026-08-30: -1.61 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.61
2026-08-29-2.49
2026-08-28-12.24
2026-08-27-10.10
2026-08-26-0.65
2026-08-25-5.56
2026-08-24+0.56
2026-08-23+1.23
2026-08-22-3.46
2026-08-21-5.94
2026-08-20-3.01
2026-08-19-1.14
2026-08-18-4.33
2026-08-17-1.94
2026-08-16-2.11
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-5.26

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.75 · P90 |e| 8.02 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.004
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08163.85 -3.63

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -0.56 [-1.87, 0.94] no
NCEP GFS 16 +1.58 [-1.09, 4.16] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -1.35 [-2.31, 0.86] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +1.04 [-0.65, 3.65] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence