KMIA — Miami Intl
25.7906, -80.3164 · 3 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIMIA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.05-4.05 · n=30 | 4.35-4.35 · n=29 | 4.40-4.40 · n=28 | 4.18-4.18 · n=27 | 4.32-4.32 · n=26 | 4.52-4.52 · n=25 | 4.44-4.44 · n=24 | 4.27-4.27 · n=23 | 4.21-4.21 · n=22 | 4.48-4.48 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.96-6.96 · n=2 | 6.93-6.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.93-6.93 · n=3 | 6.88-6.88 · n=2 | 6.86-6.86 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.54-4.54 · n=2 | 5.33-5.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.08-5.08 · n=3 | 4.98-4.98 · n=2 | 5.26-5.26 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.52-1.25 · n=30 | 1.65-1.39 · n=29 | 1.69-1.46 · n=28 | 1.98-1.69 · n=27 | 2.04-1.91 · n=26 | 2.17-1.92 · n=25 | 2.71-2.54 · n=24 | 2.76-2.67 · n=23 | 2.56-2.56 · n=22 | 2.64-2.52 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.05-6.05 · n=2 | 6.08-6.08 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 3.48-3.48 · n=34 | 4.18-4.18 · n=33 | 4.40-4.40 · n=32 | 4.18-4.18 · n=31 | 4.31-4.31 · n=31 | 4.74-4.74 · n=31 | 4.76-4.73 · n=30 | 5.32-4.91 · n=29 | 5.18-5.14 · n=28 | 5.45-5.12 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.27-3.27 · n=24 | 4.02-4.02 · n=23 | 3.95-3.95 · n=22 | 3.97-3.97 · n=22 | 3.57-3.57 · n=20 | 3.92-3.66 · n=18 | 3.95-3.85 · n=19 | 3.69-3.69 · n=18 | 4.27-4.15 · n=17 | 3.85-3.63 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 5.83-5.83 · n=2 | 5.99-5.99 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 4.65-4.65 · n=3 | 6.55-6.55 · n=2 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.57+0.01 · n=365 | 3.38+0.01 · n=365 | 3.76+0.01 · n=365 | 3.97+0.02 · n=365 | 4.04+0.02 · n=365 | 4.02+0.02 · n=365 | 4.30+0.03 · n=365 | 4.36+0.02 · n=365 | 4.43+0.02 · n=365 |
Up to 3 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.10+1.89 · n=30 | 1.89+1.60 · n=29 | 1.98+1.64 · n=28 | 1.92+1.63 · n=27 | 1.87+1.57 · n=26 | 2.01+1.61 · n=25 | 2.11+1.50 · n=24 | 2.13+1.65 · n=23 | 2.13+1.77 · n=22 | 2.40+1.98 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 2.72+1.99 · n=2 | 2.10-2.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.84+1.49 · n=3 | 2.97+1.32 · n=2 | 1.72-1.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.05+4.05 · n=2 | 0.61+0.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.31+2.26 · n=3 | 3.41+3.41 · n=2 | 0.73+0.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 4.51+4.50 · n=30 | 4.84+4.78 · n=29 | 4.86+4.86 · n=28 | 4.92+4.92 · n=27 | 4.64+4.64 · n=26 | 4.80+4.80 · n=25 | 4.68+4.68 · n=24 | 4.76+4.76 · n=23 | 4.28+4.11 · n=22 | 4.60+4.60 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 3.60+3.60 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.54+0.78 · n=34 | 1.71+0.27 · n=33 | 1.71+0.11 · n=32 | 1.42-0.28 · n=31 | 1.46-0.30 · n=31 | 1.82-0.49 · n=31 | 1.75-0.39 · n=30 | 2.13-1.15 · n=29 | 2.61-1.63 · n=28 | 3.86-1.66 · n=27 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.02+0.62 · n=24 | 1.68-0.17 · n=23 | 1.54-0.18 · n=22 | 1.65-0.04 · n=22 | 1.10+0.28 · n=20 | 1.25+0.61 · n=18 | 1.75+0.29 · n=19 | 1.86+0.53 · n=18 | 1.63+0.13 · n=17 | 1.89+0.68 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.53+3.53 · n=2 | 0.07-0.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.32+1.27 · n=3 | 2.33+2.26 · n=2 | 0.74-0.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.74-0.01 · n=365 | 3.78-0.01 · n=365 | 4.26-0.01 · n=365 | 4.54-0.01 · n=365 | 4.84+0.00 · n=365 | 5.12-0.00 · n=365 | 5.36-0.00 · n=365 | 5.58-0.01 · n=365 | 5.63-0.02 · n=365 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences