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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.95 [3.26, 4.95]1.31-3.95 [-4.95, -3.26]4.30 [3.46, 5.18]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-0.93+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.95 [3.21, 4.96]1.31-3.95 [-4.96, -3.21]4.30 [3.39, 5.31]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-0.93+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.95 [3.14, 5.05]1.31-3.95 [-5.05, -3.14]4.30 [3.33, 5.40]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-0.93+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.95 [3.17, 5.06]1.31-3.95 [-5.06, -3.17]4.30 [3.35, 5.43]0% [0%, 0%]14%27%-0.93+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC4.63 [3.91, 5.53]1.32-4.63 [-5.53, -3.91]4.98 [4.07, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.26+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC4.63 [3.89, 5.60]1.32-4.63 [-5.60, -3.89]4.98 [4.06, 6.04]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.26+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC4.63 [3.84, 5.68]1.32-4.63 [-5.68, -3.84]4.98 [3.99, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.26+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC4.63 [3.86, 5.71]1.32-4.63 [-5.71, -3.86]4.98 [4.02, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-1.26+0.362026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.64 [2.76, 4.60]1.65-3.64 [-4.60, -2.76]4.27 [3.09, 5.34]0% [0%, 0%]32%50%-0.91+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.64 [2.66, 4.61]1.65-3.64 [-4.61, -2.66]4.27 [2.93, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]32%50%-0.91+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.64 [2.56, 4.66]1.65-3.64 [-4.66, -2.56]4.27 [2.87, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]32%50%-0.91+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.64 [2.67, 4.62]1.65-3.64 [-4.62, -2.67]4.27 [2.99, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]32%50%-0.91+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC4.34 [3.44, 5.37]1.65-4.34 [-5.37, -3.44]4.84 [3.73, 5.93]0% [0%, 0%]5%36%-1.27+0.152026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC4.34 [3.31, 5.52]1.65-4.34 [-5.52, -3.31]4.84 [3.55, 5.93]0% [0%, 0%]5%36%-1.27+0.152026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC4.34 [3.27, 5.48]1.65-4.34 [-5.48, -3.27]4.84 [3.50, 5.91]0% [0%, 0%]5%36%-1.27+0.152026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC4.34 [3.35, 5.45]1.65-4.34 [-5.45, -3.35]4.84 [3.63, 5.92]0% [0%, 0%]5%36%-1.27+0.152026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.54 [1.11, 2.33]1.51-0.18 [-0.66, 0.57]1.95 [1.40, 2.78]45% [22%, 65%]64%91%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.54 [1.12, 2.69]1.51-0.18 [-0.77, 0.94]1.95 [1.39, 3.17]45% [15%, 65%]64%91%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.54 [1.07, 2.52]1.51-0.18 [-0.76, 0.79]1.95 [1.33, 2.99]45% [14%, 67%]64%91%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.54 [1.08, 2.74]1.51-0.18 [-0.72, 1.19]1.95 [1.34, 3.21]45% [0%, 67%]64%91%+0.26+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC1.59 [1.18, 2.33]1.52+0.52 [-0.07, 1.20]1.99 [1.41, 2.91]36% [18%, 50%]73%91%+0.24+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC1.59 [1.16, 2.66]1.52+0.52 [-0.19, 1.58]1.99 [1.36, 3.30]36% [14%, 50%]73%91%+0.24+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC1.59 [1.15, 2.57]1.52+0.52 [-0.18, 1.52]1.99 [1.33, 3.12]36% [13%, 50%]73%91%+0.24+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC1.59 [1.14, 2.68]1.52+0.52 [-0.16, 1.76]1.99 [1.34, 3.34]36% [0%, 50%]73%91%+0.24+0.292026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC1.71 [1.21, 2.87]1.68-0.07 [-0.86, 1.25]2.30 [1.50, 3.66]45% [21%, 60%]59%86%+0.08+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC1.71 [1.26, 3.52]1.68-0.07 [-0.90, 2.01]2.30 [1.55, 4.39]45% [0%, 62%]59%86%+0.08+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC1.71 [1.22, 3.22]1.68-0.07 [-0.99, 1.56]2.30 [1.50, 3.90]45% [0%, 62%]59%86%+0.08+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC1.71 [1.23, 3.82]1.68-0.07 [-1.01, 2.28]2.30 [1.51, 4.53]45% [0%, 62%]59%86%+0.08+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC1.63 [1.01, 2.92]1.64+0.84 [0.08, 2.20]2.44 [1.34, 4.12]45% [18%, 64%]82%82%+0.12+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC1.63 [1.02, 3.71]1.64+0.84 [0.02, 2.94]2.44 [1.31, 4.86]45% [8%, 63%]82%82%+0.12+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC1.63 [1.01, 3.43]1.64+0.84 [-0.02, 2.65]2.44 [1.28, 4.47]45% [10%, 66%]82%82%+0.12+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC1.63 [1.01, 4.13]1.64+0.84 [-0.08, 3.26]2.44 [1.25, 5.21]45% [0%, 65%]82%82%+0.12+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.36 °F2026-08-08: -4.56 °F2026-08-09: -5.27 °F2026-08-11: -4.46 °F2026-08-13: -3.12 °F2026-08-14: -5.08 °F2026-08-15: -3.31 °F2026-08-16: -2.6 °F2026-08-17: -2.84 °F2026-08-18: -4.48 °F2026-08-19: -1.35 °F2026-08-20: -3 °F2026-08-21: -4.09 °F2026-08-22: -3.45 °F2026-08-23: -3.18 °F2026-08-24: -1.58 °F2026-08-25: -1.58 °F2026-08-26: -7.49 °F2026-08-27: -7.78 °F2026-08-28: -4.06 °F2026-08-29: -3.58 °F2026-08-30: -6.68 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.68
2026-08-29-3.58
2026-08-28-4.06
2026-08-27-7.78
2026-08-26-7.49
2026-08-25-1.58
2026-08-24-1.58
2026-08-23-3.18
2026-08-22-3.45
2026-08-21-4.09
2026-08-20-3.00
2026-08-19-1.35
2026-08-18-4.48
2026-08-17-2.84
2026-08-16-2.60
2026-08-15-3.31
2026-08-14-5.08
2026-08-13-3.12
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-4.46
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-5.27
2026-08-08-4.56
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-3.36

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.52 · P90 |e| 6.54 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.95 -3.95

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.42 [-1.16, 0.33] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -0.18 [-0.18, -0.18] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +1.42 [1.42, 1.42] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +2.20 [1.26, 3.76] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.64 [-2.01, 0.51] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.43 [-0.43, -0.43] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.91 [0.62, 3.25] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence