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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 2 QC3.57 [2.85, 4.49]1.44-3.57 [-4.49, -2.85]3.96 [3.21, 4.83]5% [0%, 13%]25%45%-0.62+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 2 QC3.57 [2.76, 4.77]1.44-3.57 [-4.77, -2.76]3.96 [3.10, 5.10]5% [0%, 13%]25%45%-0.62+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 2 QC3.57 [2.74, 4.70]1.44-3.57 [-4.70, -2.74]3.96 [3.06, 5.06]5% [0%, 13%]25%45%-0.62+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 2 QC3.57 [2.78, 4.73]1.44-3.57 [-4.73, -2.78]3.96 [3.07, 5.13]5% [0%, 14%]25%45%-0.62+0.352026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 2 QC4.28 [3.71, 4.94]1.27-4.28 [-4.94, -3.71]4.54 [3.95, 5.18]0% [0%, 0%]5%30%-0.94+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 2 QC4.28 [3.62, 5.05]1.27-4.28 [-5.05, -3.62]4.54 [3.87, 5.30]0% [0%, 0%]5%30%-0.94+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 2 QC4.28 [3.64, 5.07]1.27-4.28 [-5.07, -3.64]4.54 [3.87, 5.27]0% [0%, 0%]5%30%-0.94+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 2 QC4.28 [3.66, 5.08]1.27-4.28 [-5.08, -3.66]4.54 [3.87, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]5%30%-0.94+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC4.03 [3.09, 5.57]1.98-4.00 [-5.53, -3.06]4.68 [3.58, 6.08]10% [0%, 19%]19%38%-0.88+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC4.03 [2.94, 6.12]1.98-4.00 [-6.12, -2.91]4.68 [3.49, 6.59]10% [0%, 19%]19%38%-0.88+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC4.03 [2.92, 6.13]1.98-4.00 [-6.13, -2.89]4.68 [3.40, 6.56]10% [0%, 20%]19%38%-0.88+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 2 QC4.03 [2.92, 6.11]1.98-4.00 [-6.11, -2.89]4.68 [3.43, 6.57]10% [0%, 22%]19%38%-0.88+0.072026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 2 QC4.70 [3.87, 5.96]1.80-4.70 [-5.96, -3.87]5.16 [4.28, 6.32]5% [0%, 12%]10%29%-1.19+0.152026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 2 QC4.70 [3.80, 6.39]1.80-4.70 [-6.39, -3.80]5.16 [4.22, 6.65]5% [0%, 13%]10%29%-1.19+0.152026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 2 QC4.70 [3.79, 6.47]1.80-4.70 [-6.47, -3.79]5.16 [4.12, 6.73]5% [0%, 14%]10%29%-1.19+0.152026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 2 QC4.70 [3.78, 6.46]1.80-4.70 [-6.46, -3.78]5.16 [4.15, 6.73]5% [0%, 14%]10%29%-1.19+0.152026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 2 QC1.10 [0.83, 1.30]1.15+0.28 [-0.13, 0.61]1.43 [1.03, 1.64]55% [44%, 67%]75%100%+0.57+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 2 QC1.10 [0.75, 1.29]1.15+0.28 [-0.27, 0.56]1.43 [0.92, 1.63]55% [40%, 71%]75%100%+0.57+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 2 QC1.10 [0.77, 1.32]1.15+0.28 [-0.27, 0.59]1.43 [0.96, 1.64]55% [38%, 71%]75%100%+0.57+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 2 QC1.10 [0.73, 1.31]1.15+0.28 [-0.33, 0.60]1.43 [0.88, 1.64]55% [38%, 73%]75%100%+0.57+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 2 QC1.33 [1.05, 1.52]1.10+1.01 [0.64, 1.32]1.70 [1.36, 1.91]55% [40%, 75%]75%90%+0.48+0.562026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 2 QC1.33 [0.94, 1.50]1.10+1.01 [0.65, 1.29]1.70 [1.24, 1.88]55% [41%, 80%]75%90%+0.48+0.562026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 2 QC1.33 [0.96, 1.51]1.10+1.01 [0.59, 1.30]1.70 [1.22, 1.91]55% [38%, 80%]75%90%+0.48+0.562026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 2 QC1.33 [0.88, 1.51]1.10+1.01 [0.60, 1.31]1.70 [1.03, 1.90]55% [40%, 85%]75%90%+0.48+0.562026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC1.56 [1.10, 2.35]1.56-0.02 [-0.64, 0.55]2.03 [1.30, 3.00]38% [20%, 55%]76%95%+0.39+0.382026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC1.56 [1.08, 2.58]1.56-0.02 [-0.80, 0.78]2.03 [1.26, 3.26]38% [9%, 57%]76%95%+0.39+0.382026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC1.56 [1.09, 2.63]1.56-0.02 [-0.90, 0.79]2.03 [1.26, 3.31]38% [12%, 56%]76%95%+0.39+0.382026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 2 QC1.56 [1.05, 2.82]1.56-0.02 [-0.92, 0.79]2.03 [1.22, 3.54]38% [0%, 56%]76%95%+0.39+0.382026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 2 QC1.74 [1.31, 2.44]1.51+0.74 [0.10, 1.32]2.18 [1.58, 3.09]33% [19%, 46%]67%90%+0.32+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 2 QC1.74 [1.26, 2.67]1.51+0.74 [-0.05, 1.44]2.18 [1.55, 3.33]33% [14%, 45%]67%90%+0.32+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 2 QC1.74 [1.26, 2.65]1.51+0.74 [-0.16, 1.46]2.18 [1.55, 3.36]33% [14%, 45%]67%90%+0.32+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 2 QC1.74 [1.25, 2.87]1.51+0.74 [-0.18, 1.49]2.18 [1.54, 3.58]33% [0%, 46%]67%90%+0.32+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -5.54 °F2026-08-11: -3.91 °F2026-08-12: -4.51 °F2026-08-13: -2.88 °F2026-08-14: -4.99 °F2026-08-16: -1.98 °F2026-08-17: -2.98 °F2026-08-18: -5.07 °F2026-08-19: -0.84 °F2026-08-20: -1.23 °F2026-08-21: -2.17 °F2026-08-22: -3.06 °F2026-08-23: -3.82 °F2026-08-24: -1.91 °F2026-08-25: -4.79 °F2026-08-26: -2.56 °F2026-08-27: -6.14 °F2026-08-28: -7.72 °F2026-08-29: -1.96 °F2026-08-30: -3.32 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.32
2026-08-29-1.96
2026-08-28-7.72
2026-08-27-6.14
2026-08-26-2.56
2026-08-25-4.79
2026-08-24-1.91
2026-08-23-3.82
2026-08-22-3.06
2026-08-21-2.17
2026-08-20-1.23
2026-08-19-0.84
2026-08-18-5.07
2026-08-17-2.98
2026-08-16-1.98
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.99
2026-08-13-2.88
2026-08-12-4.51
2026-08-11-3.91
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-5.54

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.19 · P90 |e| 5.6 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.57 -3.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -0.89 [-1.37, -0.19] yes
NCEP GFS 20 +1.49 [0.43, 3.45] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -1.29 [-1.92, 0.03] no
Persistence (baseline) 20 +1.37 [0.33, 2.60] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence