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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 4

KMIA · aifs_single · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d26 2 QC4.32 [3.95, 4.75]1.04-4.32 [-4.75, -3.95]4.51 [4.12, 4.95]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.97+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d26 2 QC4.32 [3.91, 4.78]1.04-4.32 [-4.78, -3.91]4.51 [4.06, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.97+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d26 2 QC4.32 [3.91, 4.74]1.04-4.32 [-4.74, -3.91]4.51 [4.05, 4.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.97+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall26 2 QC4.32 [3.88, 4.81]1.04-4.32 [-4.81, -3.88]4.51 [4.02, 4.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-0.97+0.532026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d26 2 QC5.15 [4.79, 5.56]1.00-5.15 [-5.56, -4.79]5.31 [4.91, 5.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.35+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d26 2 QC5.15 [4.76, 5.54]1.00-5.15 [-5.54, -4.76]5.31 [4.88, 5.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.35+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d26 2 QC5.15 [4.74, 5.57]1.00-5.15 [-5.57, -4.74]5.31 [4.87, 5.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.35+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall26 2 QC5.15 [4.72, 5.62]1.00-5.15 [-5.62, -4.72]5.31 [4.83, 5.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.35+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d26 2 QC4.46 [4.14, 4.86]1.06-4.46 [-4.86, -4.14]4.65 [4.29, 5.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-1.04+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d26 2 QC4.46 [4.11, 4.86]1.06-4.46 [-4.86, -4.11]4.65 [4.25, 5.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-1.04+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d26 2 QC4.46 [4.07, 4.83]1.06-4.46 [-4.83, -4.07]4.65 [4.23, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-1.04+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall26 2 QC4.46 [4.12, 4.91]1.06-4.46 [-4.91, -4.12]4.65 [4.24, 5.09]0% [0%, 0%]0%12%-1.04+0.522026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d26 2 QC5.33 [5.00, 5.70]1.01-5.33 [-5.70, -5.00]5.48 [5.10, 5.88]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.43+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d26 2 QC5.33 [4.95, 5.67]1.01-5.33 [-5.67, -4.95]5.48 [5.05, 5.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.43+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d26 2 QC5.33 [4.96, 5.68]1.01-5.33 [-5.68, -4.96]5.48 [5.06, 5.87]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.43+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall26 2 QC5.33 [4.93, 5.72]1.01-5.33 [-5.72, -4.93]5.48 [5.03, 5.88]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.43+0.542026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d26 2 QC1.87 [1.39, 2.34]1.57+1.57 [0.84, 2.23]2.43 [1.93, 2.87]38% [23%, 53%]50%77%+0.40+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d26 2 QC1.87 [1.30, 2.37]1.57+1.57 [0.66, 2.28]2.43 [1.85, 2.89]38% [25%, 56%]50%77%+0.40+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d26 2 QC1.87 [1.29, 2.40]1.57+1.57 [0.68, 2.31]2.43 [1.81, 2.89]38% [23%, 57%]50%77%+0.40+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall26 2 QC1.87 [1.26, 2.44]1.57+1.57 [0.71, 2.36]2.43 [1.79, 2.94]38% [22%, 57%]50%77%+0.40+0.502026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d26 2 QC2.39 [1.75, 3.01]1.55+2.31 [1.57, 3.00]2.95 [2.40, 3.45]31% [9%, 56%]46%69%+0.23+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d26 2 QC2.39 [1.62, 3.07]1.55+2.31 [1.39, 3.07]2.95 [2.26, 3.47]31% [7%, 60%]46%69%+0.23+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d26 2 QC2.39 [1.62, 3.08]1.55+2.31 [1.42, 3.08]2.95 [2.23, 3.50]31% [7%, 61%]46%69%+0.23+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall26 2 QC2.39 [1.64, 3.14]1.55+2.31 [1.44, 3.14]2.95 [2.19, 3.54]31% [4%, 60%]46%69%+0.23+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d26 2 QC1.77 [1.32, 2.25]1.55+1.39 [0.72, 2.05]2.31 [1.84, 2.72]31% [12%, 48%]62%77%+0.43+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d26 2 QC1.77 [1.27, 2.30]1.55+1.39 [0.61, 2.10]2.31 [1.78, 2.74]31% [11%, 50%]62%77%+0.43+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d26 2 QC1.77 [1.24, 2.34]1.55+1.39 [0.57, 2.16]2.31 [1.74, 2.77]31% [11%, 50%]62%77%+0.43+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall26 2 QC1.77 [1.22, 2.36]1.55+1.39 [0.60, 2.22]2.31 [1.69, 2.80]31% [7%, 50%]62%77%+0.43+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d26 2 QC2.23 [1.62, 2.86]1.53+2.12 [1.44, 2.81]2.80 [2.26, 3.28]38% [16%, 60%]50%69%+0.28+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d26 2 QC2.23 [1.52, 2.90]1.53+2.12 [1.33, 2.87]2.80 [2.19, 3.31]38% [14%, 63%]50%69%+0.28+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d26 2 QC2.23 [1.49, 2.96]1.53+2.12 [1.29, 2.92]2.80 [2.14, 3.34]38% [12%, 64%]50%69%+0.28+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall26 2 QC2.23 [1.48, 3.02]1.53+2.12 [1.28, 2.99]2.80 [2.13, 3.39]38% [10%, 64%]50%69%+0.28+0.512026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -5.89 °F2026-08-06: -4.07 °F2026-08-07: -5.79 °F2026-08-08: -3.09 °F2026-08-09: -3.19 °F2026-08-10: -3.26 °F2026-08-11: -4.05 °F2026-08-12: -4.12 °F2026-08-13: -4.55 °F2026-08-14: -6.99 °F2026-08-15: -3.81 °F2026-08-16: -3.17 °F2026-08-17: -4.01 °F2026-08-18: -6.41 °F2026-08-19: -4.09 °F2026-08-20: -2.41 °F2026-08-21: -3.66 °F2026-08-22: -3.75 °F2026-08-23: -4 °F2026-08-24: -2.07 °F2026-08-25: -4.66 °F2026-08-26: -6.61 °F2026-08-27: -6.63 °F2026-08-28: -4.84 °F2026-08-29: -3.21 °F2026-08-30: -3.97 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.97
2026-08-29-3.21
2026-08-28-4.84
2026-08-27-6.63
2026-08-26-6.61
2026-08-25-4.66
2026-08-24-2.07
2026-08-23-4.00
2026-08-22-3.75
2026-08-21-3.66
2026-08-20-2.41
2026-08-19-4.09
2026-08-18-6.41
2026-08-17-4.01
2026-08-16-3.17
2026-08-15-3.81
2026-08-14-6.99
2026-08-13-4.55
2026-08-12-4.12
2026-08-11-4.05
2026-08-10-3.26
2026-08-09-3.19
2026-08-08-3.09
2026-08-07-5.79
2026-08-06-4.07
2026-08-05-5.89

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMIA, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -3 °F: 9 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.03 · P90 |e| 6.51 °F-100+10 °Fn = 26 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.004
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.009
-4.00-3.009
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08264.32 -4.32

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 26

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 26 +2.28 [1.64, 3.44] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.23 [-1.14, 0.39] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 20 +0.89 [0.19, 1.37] yes
Persistence (baseline) 26 +2.13 [1.45, 2.88] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA aifs_single lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/aifs_single/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence