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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.69 [2.74, 4.84]1.95-3.69 [-4.84, -2.74]4.32 [3.31, 5.23]17% [0%, 33%]22%50%-0.38+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.69 [2.73, 5.14]1.95-3.69 [-5.14, -2.73]4.32 [3.32, 5.33]17% [0%, 33%]22%50%-0.38+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.69 [2.80, 5.14]1.95-3.69 [-5.14, -2.80]4.32 [3.37, 5.42]17% [0%, 35%]22%50%-0.38+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.69 [2.61, 5.09]1.95-3.69 [-5.09, -2.61]4.32 [3.13, 5.37]17% [0%, 38%]22%50%-0.38+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC4.65 [3.88, 5.59]2.04-4.65 [-5.59, -3.88]5.17 [4.39, 5.93]0% [0%, 0%]17%33%-0.74+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC4.65 [3.90, 5.97]2.04-4.65 [-5.97, -3.90]5.17 [4.44, 6.26]0% [0%, 0%]17%33%-0.74+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC4.65 [3.91, 5.98]2.04-4.65 [-5.98, -3.91]5.17 [4.43, 6.24]0% [0%, 0%]17%33%-0.74+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC4.65 [3.77, 5.90]2.04-4.65 [-5.90, -3.77]5.17 [4.29, 6.09]0% [0%, 0%]17%33%-0.74+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC3.77 [2.52, 4.90]2.35-3.71 [-4.86, -2.41]4.67 [3.20, 5.57]12% [0%, 25%]35%53%-0.39+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC3.77 [2.40, 4.87]2.35-3.71 [-4.86, -2.39]4.67 [2.44, 5.48]12% [0%, 25%]35%53%-0.39+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC3.77 [2.40, 4.95]2.35-3.71 [-4.95, -2.39]4.67 [2.44, 5.50]12% [0%, 25%]35%53%-0.39+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC3.77 [2.39, 4.99]2.35-3.71 [-4.99, -2.35]4.67 [2.40, 5.53]12% [0%, 25%]35%53%-0.39+0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC4.51 [3.43, 5.38]2.03-4.51 [-5.38, -3.43]5.15 [3.85, 5.98]6% [0%, 14%]6%35%-0.67+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC4.51 [3.09, 5.33]2.03-4.51 [-5.33, -3.09]5.15 [3.38, 5.84]6% [0%, 14%]6%35%-0.67+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC4.51 [3.14, 5.39]2.03-4.51 [-5.39, -3.14]5.15 [3.39, 5.95]6% [0%, 14%]6%35%-0.67+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC4.51 [3.00, 5.43]2.03-4.51 [-5.43, -3.00]5.15 [3.36, 5.94]6% [0%, 14%]6%35%-0.67+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC1.86 [1.39, 2.43]1.83+0.53 [-0.84, 1.18]2.26 [1.85, 2.74]33% [20%, 50%]61%72%+0.20+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC1.86 [1.35, 2.64]1.83+0.53 [-1.57, 1.20]2.26 [1.78, 2.95]33% [19%, 50%]61%72%+0.20+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC1.86 [1.35, 2.52]1.83+0.53 [-1.60, 1.21]2.26 [1.77, 2.80]33% [18%, 50%]61%72%+0.20+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC1.86 [1.34, 2.57]1.83+0.53 [-1.38, 1.31]2.26 [1.75, 2.87]33% [17%, 50%]61%72%+0.20+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC2.33 [1.94, 2.77]1.90+1.35 [-0.08, 2.00]2.72 [2.31, 3.16]28% [14%, 43%]39%67%+0.00+0.132026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC2.33 [1.87, 2.87]1.90+1.35 [-1.09, 1.98]2.72 [2.30, 3.25]28% [0%, 46%]39%67%+0.00+0.132026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC2.33 [1.85, 2.89]1.90+1.35 [-0.92, 2.04]2.72 [2.28, 3.27]28% [0%, 46%]39%67%+0.00+0.132026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC2.33 [1.83, 2.96]1.90+1.35 [-0.71, 2.13]2.72 [2.20, 3.33]28% [0%, 50%]39%67%+0.00+0.132026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC1.76 [1.29, 2.57]1.79+0.50 [-0.92, 1.14]2.22 [1.73, 2.97]41% [12%, 60%]59%76%+0.21+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC1.76 [1.29, 3.05]1.79+0.50 [-1.66, 1.15]2.22 [1.70, 3.41]41% [0%, 60%]59%76%+0.21+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC1.76 [1.24, 2.75]1.79+0.50 [-2.34, 1.21]2.22 [1.67, 3.18]41% [0%, 62%]59%76%+0.21+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC1.76 [1.24, 2.80]1.79+0.50 [-1.36, 1.14]2.22 [1.67, 3.22]41% [0%, 62%]59%76%+0.21+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC2.19 [1.64, 2.79]1.89+1.21 [-0.09, 1.90]2.65 [2.05, 3.18]29% [11%, 46%]53%65%+0.02+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC2.19 [1.61, 2.88]1.89+1.21 [-0.73, 1.94]2.65 [1.98, 3.28]29% [9%, 50%]53%65%+0.02+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC2.19 [1.61, 2.93]1.89+1.21 [-1.60, 1.99]2.65 [1.93, 3.27]29% [7%, 50%]53%65%+0.02+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC2.19 [1.61, 2.99]1.89+1.21 [-0.57, 1.90]2.65 [1.92, 3.30]29% [3%, 50%]53%65%+0.02+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -5.14 °F2026-08-14: -7.77 °F2026-08-15: -2.31 °F2026-08-16: -4.3 °F2026-08-17: -2.14 °F2026-08-18: -7.83 °F2026-08-19: -1.6 °F2026-08-20: -2.64 °F2026-08-21: -0.69 °F2026-08-22: -3.46 °F2026-08-23: -2.67 °F2026-08-24: -0.97 °F2026-08-25: -0.73 °F2026-08-26: -6.38 °F2026-08-27: -6.46 °F2026-08-28: -5.47 °F2026-08-29: -2.42 °F2026-08-30: -3.37 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.37
2026-08-29-2.42
2026-08-28-5.47
2026-08-27-6.46
2026-08-26-6.38
2026-08-25-0.73
2026-08-24-0.97
2026-08-23-2.67
2026-08-22-3.46
2026-08-21-0.69
2026-08-20-2.64
2026-08-19-1.60
2026-08-18-7.83
2026-08-17-2.14
2026-08-16-4.30
2026-08-15-2.31
2026-08-14-7.77
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-5.14

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.02 · P90 |e| 6.85 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.69 -3.69

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.64 [-1.39, 0.53] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.07 [-0.22, 2.97] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -2.00 [-2.82, -0.22] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.02 [0.04, 2.77] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence