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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Miami Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KMIA · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC3.27 [2.60, 4.06]1.29-3.27 [-4.06, -2.60]3.76 [2.83, 4.85]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC3.27 [2.42, 4.49]1.29-3.27 [-4.49, -2.42]3.76 [2.64, 5.21]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC3.27 [2.36, 4.68]1.29-3.27 [-4.68, -2.36]3.76 [2.58, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 2 QC3.27 [2.39, 4.63]1.29-3.27 [-4.63, -2.39]3.76 [2.67, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 2 QC3.72 [3.18, 4.29]1.19-3.72 [-4.29, -3.18]4.06 [3.39, 4.80]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 2 QC3.72 [2.98, 4.60]1.19-3.72 [-4.60, -2.98]4.06 [3.22, 5.17]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 2 QC3.72 [2.91, 4.74]1.19-3.72 [-4.74, -2.91]4.06 [3.15, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 2 QC3.72 [2.95, 4.67]1.19-3.72 [-4.67, -2.95]4.06 [3.23, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]12%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 2 QC2.02 [1.25, 2.99]2.01+0.62 [-0.26, 1.63]2.47 [1.60, 3.50]29% [7%, 57%]58%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 2 QC2.02 [1.23, 3.16]2.01+0.62 [-0.33, 2.09]2.47 [1.68, 3.77]29% [5%, 59%]58%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 2 QC2.02 [1.18, 3.14]2.01+0.62 [-0.39, 2.00]2.47 [1.54, 3.61]29% [0%, 59%]58%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 2 QC2.02 [1.16, 3.43]2.01+0.62 [-0.36, 2.42]2.47 [1.58, 3.94]29% [0%, 59%]58%79%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 2 QC2.26 [1.35, 3.36]2.10+1.35 [0.37, 2.47]2.77 [1.70, 3.79]25% [4%, 50%]54%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 2 QC2.26 [1.36, 3.60]2.10+1.35 [0.27, 2.92]2.77 [1.73, 4.13]25% [0%, 55%]54%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 2 QC2.26 [1.34, 3.54]2.10+1.35 [0.24, 2.85]2.77 [1.70, 3.94]25% [0%, 56%]54%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 2 QC2.26 [1.34, 3.91]2.10+1.35 [0.32, 3.13]2.77 [1.70, 4.35]25% [0%, 54%]54%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -1.18 °F2026-08-08: -3.34 °F2026-08-09: -3.7 °F2026-08-10: -3.24 °F2026-08-11: -3.84 °F2026-08-12: -2.97 °F2026-08-13: -3.7 °F2026-08-14: -5.49 °F2026-08-15: -1.39 °F2026-08-16: -2.33 °F2026-08-17: -1.54 °F2026-08-18: -3.76 °F2026-08-19: -2.17 °F2026-08-20: -1.01 °F2026-08-21: -3.03 °F2026-08-22: -3.43 °F2026-08-23: -2.62 °F2026-08-24: -1.31 °F2026-08-25: -2.23 °F2026-08-26: -5.24 °F2026-08-27: -5.1 °F2026-08-28: -2 °F2026-08-29: -4.18 °F2026-08-30: -9.77 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-9.77
2026-08-29-4.18
2026-08-28-2.00
2026-08-27-5.10
2026-08-26-5.24
2026-08-25-2.23
2026-08-24-1.31
2026-08-23-2.62
2026-08-22-3.43
2026-08-21-3.03
2026-08-20-1.01
2026-08-19-2.17
2026-08-18-3.76
2026-08-17-1.54
2026-08-16-2.33
2026-08-15-1.39
2026-08-14-5.49
2026-08-13-3.70
2026-08-12-2.97
2026-08-11-3.84
2026-08-10-3.24
2026-08-09-3.70
2026-08-08-3.34
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-1.18

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMIA, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.14 · P90 |e| 5.2 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.27 -3.27

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -0.65 [-1.14, 0.15] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 +0.02 [-2.29, 2.32] no
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -1.62 [-4.66, 3.55] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +2.43 [0.05, 4.81] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +0.23 [-3.57, 4.63] no
NCEP GFS 24 +1.63 [0.97, 2.86] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +0.92 [-1.41, 3.26] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -0.39 [-1.29, 0.79] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.14 [-1.08, 3.37] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.67 [-2.45, 5.94] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMIA ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMIA (Miami Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMIA/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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