KMIA — Miami Intl
25.7906, -80.3164 · 3 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIMIA
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 4.38-4.38 · n=29 | 4.53-4.53 · n=28 | 4.51-4.51 · n=27 | 4.46-4.46 · n=26 | 4.82-4.82 · n=24 | 4.72-4.72 · n=24 | 4.72-4.72 · n=23 | 4.68-4.68 · n=22 | 4.54-4.54 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 6.63-6.63 · n=2 | 6.92-6.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 7.01-7.01 · n=2 | 6.81-6.81 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 5.07-5.07 · n=2 | 4.90-4.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 5.26-5.26 · n=2 | 5.24-5.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.90-1.63 · n=29 | 1.74-1.41 · n=28 | 2.09-1.88 · n=27 | 2.08-1.76 · n=26 | 2.38-2.08 · n=25 | 2.58-2.51 · n=24 | 2.79-2.73 · n=23 | 2.82-2.73 · n=22 | 3.40-3.40 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 6.20-6.20 · n=2 | 5.95-5.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 4.11-4.11 · n=27 | 4.41-4.41 · n=26 | 4.56-4.56 · n=25 | 4.73-4.73 · n=25 | 5.26-5.26 · n=25 | 5.32-5.32 · n=24 | 5.23-5.23 · n=23 | 4.92-4.92 · n=22 | 5.06-5.06 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 3.42-3.42 · n=24 | 3.64-3.64 · n=22 | 3.87-3.87 · n=22 | 4.03-4.00 · n=21 | 4.20-4.07 · n=20 | 3.05-3.05 · n=19 | 3.77-3.71 · n=17 | 4.06-3.99 · n=17 | 3.92-3.80 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 5.94-5.94 · n=2 | 6.01-6.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 5.99-5.99 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.41+0.03 · n=90 | 1.89+0.09 · n=90 | 2.18+0.02 · n=90 | 2.23+0.01 · n=90 | 2.28-0.06 · n=90 | 2.36-0.09 · n=90 | 2.48-0.12 · n=90 | 2.53-0.18 · n=90 | 2.61-0.23 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 1.82+1.50 · n=29 | 1.80+1.45 · n=28 | 1.75+1.37 · n=27 | 1.77+1.39 · n=26 | 1.81+1.47 · n=24 | 1.78+1.23 · n=24 | 1.93+1.33 · n=23 | 1.95+1.42 · n=22 | 2.06+1.57 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 2.94+1.06 · n=2 | 2.35-2.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 3.13+1.28 · n=2 | 1.56-1.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 3.26+3.26 · n=2 | 0.76+0.76 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 3.22+2.78 · n=2 | 0.69+0.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 4.63+4.63 · n=29 | 4.72+4.72 · n=28 | 4.49+4.49 · n=27 | 4.45+4.44 · n=26 | 4.45+4.45 · n=25 | 4.30+4.30 · n=24 | 4.31+4.31 · n=23 | 4.60+3.97 · n=22 | 4.40+4.40 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 2.92+2.92 · n=2 | 0.56-0.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 1.58+0.20 · n=27 | 1.61+0.00 · n=26 | 1.49-0.19 · n=25 | 1.52+0.01 · n=25 | 1.73-0.16 · n=25 | 1.66-0.37 · n=24 | 1.69-0.49 · n=23 | 1.64-0.49 · n=22 | 1.65-0.33 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 1.46-0.31 · n=24 | 1.71-0.07 · n=22 | 1.74-0.23 · n=22 | 1.56-0.02 · n=21 | 1.82+0.53 · n=20 | 1.40+0.65 · n=19 | 1.76+0.50 · n=17 | 1.76+0.91 · n=17 | 2.13+0.35 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 2.71+1.46 · n=2 | 1.01-1.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 1.97-0.17 · n=2 | 1.69-1.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.40-0.04 · n=90 | 2.90-0.06 · n=90 | 2.98-0.09 · n=90 | 2.99-0.12 · n=90 | 3.01-0.14 · n=90 | 3.14-0.14 · n=90 | 3.16-0.11 · n=90 | 3.36-0.13 · n=90 | 3.47-0.16 · n=90 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences