CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (GFS init)

aurora_gfs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp GFS initAURO_v100
Window
the last 30 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.73−1.43 · n=171.69−1.07 · n=171.89−0.63 · n=171.99−0.68 · n=162.27−0.02 · n=172.82−0.16 · n=183.33−0.01 · n=183.70−0.15 · n=184.83+0.30 · n=185.29−0.13 · n=18KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS3.51+0.08 · n=174.01−0.00 · n=174.11−1.30 · n=174.48−1.06 · n=164.56−1.16 · n=174.73−1.06 · n=185.50−1.04 · n=185.88−1.19 · n=186.34−2.09 · n=186.67−1.29 · n=18KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS2.43−2.16 · n=162.31−1.82 · n=162.49−1.95 · n=162.59−1.70 · n=163.22−2.22 · n=164.67−2.77 · n=174.71−1.80 · n=185.35−2.21 · n=175.49−1.16 · n=186.62−2.01 · n=17KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA2.48−2.12 · n=171.87−1.15 · n=172.16−1.28 · n=172.00−1.45 · n=163.09−2.07 · n=173.67−2.78 · n=184.82−1.91 · n=184.51−2.14 · n=185.57−1.15 · n=185.98−1.85 · n=18KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN2.33−1.66 · n=172.63−2.02 · n=173.83−3.02 · n=174.47−3.44 · n=165.32−4.02 · n=176.00−4.47 · n=187.74−5.50 · n=187.46−4.88 · n=188.04−5.99 · n=18—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW1.68−1.20 · n=172.52−2.13 · n=173.02−2.63 · n=173.10−2.56 · n=163.64−2.86 · n=174.03−3.14 · n=185.24−3.60 · n=186.05−4.05 · n=186.25−4.29 · n=186.26−3.15 · n=18KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR2.20−1.14 · n=172.44−1.42 · n=172.51−1.15 · n=172.76−1.10 · n=163.41−1.88 · n=174.33−2.81 · n=184.36−1.92 · n=184.97−2.25 · n=185.84−1.37 · n=186.45−2.46 · n=18KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.41−0.63 · n=172.64−1.18 · n=172.84−1.45 · n=173.07−2.17 · n=163.70−2.13 · n=173.88−1.49 · n=184.39−1.67 · n=184.28−1.32 · n=185.37−1.96 · n=185.54−1.82 · n=18KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS3.06−2.99 · n=173.30−3.16 · n=173.88−3.45 · n=174.29−4.18 · n=164.24−3.52 · n=174.54−3.74 · n=185.34−3.20 · n=184.63−3.44 · n=184.83−2.68 · n=18—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX2.76−2.25 · n=173.67−3.44 · n=174.23−4.12 · n=174.63−4.33 · n=164.53−3.98 · n=173.91−3.46 · n=184.01−2.57 · n=184.98−2.53 · n=185.66−3.57 · n=18—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA1.79−0.91 · n=172.23−1.98 · n=172.29−1.88 · n=172.65−1.85 · n=162.65−1.82 · n=172.33−1.29 · n=182.35−1.26 · n=182.56−1.16 · n=182.78−1.12 · n=182.79−1.31 · n=18KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP2.22−1.80 · n=172.58−1.94 · n=172.69−2.00 · n=173.68−2.97 · n=164.44−3.28 · n=176.21−5.44 · n=186.36−4.76 · n=187.85−5.99 · n=187.42−5.53 · n=189.07−7.76 · n=18KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY2.36−1.07 · n=172.25−0.45 · n=172.45−0.09 · n=172.67−0.29 · n=163.03−0.26 · n=173.36−0.63 · n=184.25+0.14 · n=183.55−0.25 · n=184.81+0.29 · n=184.96+0.54 · n=18KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC1.45−0.34 · n=171.71−0.64 · n=161.77−0.38 · n=162.12−0.17 · n=162.36−0.92 · n=173.55−1.96 · n=173.62−0.93 · n=174.25−1.28 · n=174.82−0.40 · n=186.24−1.62 · n=17KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC2.48+0.98 · n=173.21+0.80 · n=173.52−0.08 · n=173.42−0.31 · n=163.77−0.66 · n=174.55−0.56 · n=185.62−1.54 · n=186.04−2.57 · n=186.22−1.99 · n=186.00−1.22 · n=18KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD1.77−0.87 · n=172.02−1.36 · n=172.61−1.72 · n=173.04−2.08 · n=163.38−2.29 · n=174.86−2.86 · n=184.60−2.38 · n=185.80−3.06 · n=185.87−3.16 · n=185.44−3.61 · n=18KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL2.49−2.21 · n=172.52−1.75 · n=172.59−1.96 · n=172.59−1.63 · n=163.28−2.43 · n=174.26−3.14 · n=184.85−2.64 · n=184.88−2.57 · n=185.82−2.00 · n=186.35−2.60 · n=18KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX3.46−3.07 · n=173.87−3.36 · n=173.83−3.59 · n=174.03−2.83 · n=163.95−3.22 · n=173.92−2.47 · n=184.40−1.65 · n=184.88−1.12 · n=185.02−0.66 · n=18—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN3.63−3.00 · n=174.07−3.48 · n=174.34−4.07 · n=174.19−3.78 · n=164.35−4.04 · n=173.93−3.47 · n=183.89−3.08 · n=184.17−2.94 · n=185.41−3.82 · n=18—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT2.36−0.92 · n=172.91−1.50 · n=173.23−2.64 · n=173.58−2.63 · n=163.77−2.71 · n=174.16−2.55 · n=184.71−2.80 · n=185.40−2.69 · n=185.81−3.35 · n=185.95−2.68 · n=18KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA1.95−1.18 · n=172.29−1.49 · n=172.42−1.66 · n=172.80−1.51 · n=163.32−2.25 · n=173.01−2.07 · n=183.20−1.73 · n=183.55−1.55 · n=183.45−1.20 · n=18—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.69−1.25 · n=173.06−1.77 · n=173.27−1.96 · n=173.27−1.73 · n=163.62−1.13 · n=173.01−0.81 · n=183.77−0.45 · n=183.86+0.02 · n=184.06−1.17 · n=18—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN1.85+0.70 · n=172.32+1.03 · n=172.49+1.08 · n=172.73+1.23 · n=163.38+0.72 · n=173.69−0.35 · n=184.59+0.47 · n=184.51+0.43 · n=186.16+1.07 · n=186.78−0.04 · n=18KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL0.87−0.51 · n=171.25−0.98 · n=171.64−0.04 · n=171.61−0.72 · n=162.23−0.19 · n=173.38−1.14 · n=183.65−0.65 · n=184.51−1.28 · n=186.12−0.12 · n=186.09−1.61 · n=18KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS2.19−1.88 · n=172.95−2.23 · n=173.90−3.87 · n=174.21−3.74 · n=164.61−3.81 · n=174.95−3.92 · n=185.43−4.39 · n=186.45−4.19 · n=186.35−5.12 · n=185.53−3.34 · n=18KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS2.62−2.46 · n=162.35−2.34 · n=162.63−2.36 · n=162.39−1.72 · n=163.94−2.89 · n=165.04−4.27 · n=175.16−1.86 · n=185.88−3.65 · n=176.84−2.28 · n=188.08−3.59 · n=17KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.62−2.14 · n=172.62−1.65 · n=172.77−2.59 · n=172.88−2.81 · n=164.05−4.05 · n=175.30−3.90 · n=186.13−3.09 · n=185.29−4.07 · n=187.37−2.99 · n=187.18−3.75 · n=18KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN1.90−1.57 · n=171.99−1.93 · n=174.38−3.55 · n=174.77−3.81 · n=165.69−4.77 · n=176.28−4.58 · n=188.20−5.50 · n=188.09−5.11 · n=188.07−5.71 · n=18—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW1.32−1.16 · n=172.55−2.55 · n=173.30−3.29 · n=173.24−3.17 · n=164.32−3.82 · n=174.76−3.92 · n=186.12−5.30 · n=186.84−5.36 · n=186.67−5.60 · n=186.33−3.46 · n=18KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR3.13−2.93 · n=173.58−3.03 · n=173.10−2.70 · n=173.41−2.88 · n=164.48−3.81 · n=175.86−5.22 · n=185.44−3.64 · n=185.68−5.34 · n=188.16−4.39 · n=187.69−5.01 · n=18KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH3.14−2.74 · n=174.21−3.39 · n=174.50−3.82 · n=174.11−3.99 · n=164.66−4.25 · n=175.01−3.60 · n=185.78−4.65 · n=185.94−3.89 · n=186.44−5.75 · n=186.13−4.01 · n=18KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS3.35−3.24 · n=173.64−3.34 · n=174.36−3.59 · n=174.34−4.34 · n=164.00−3.55 · n=174.50−4.03 · n=186.44−3.27 · n=185.32−3.73 · n=185.82−2.24 · n=18—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX3.20−2.86 · n=174.92−4.80 · n=175.66−5.66 · n=175.74−5.68 · n=165.58−5.31 · n=174.34−4.14 · n=184.20−3.05 · n=185.91−2.75 · n=186.93−4.29 · n=18—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA2.10−1.35 · n=172.67−2.40 · n=172.31−1.59 · n=172.94−2.48 · n=162.97−1.74 · n=172.23−1.10 · n=182.21−1.30 · n=183.13−1.23 · n=183.18−1.13 · n=182.88−1.20 · n=18KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP2.27−2.07 · n=172.85−2.56 · n=172.80−2.36 · n=173.81−3.79 · n=165.29−3.89 · n=177.02−6.58 · n=186.95−5.24 · n=188.25−6.74 · n=188.31−6.45 · n=1810.11−9.26 · n=18KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY3.38−3.38 · n=172.77−2.72 · n=172.50−2.47 · n=172.81−2.79 · n=163.63−3.26 · n=173.82−3.37 · n=184.31−2.96 · n=183.61−3.05 · n=184.82−2.43 · n=184.02−2.69 · n=18KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC0.78+0.37 · n=171.52+0.21 · n=161.69+0.34 · n=162.32+0.18 · n=162.00−0.57 · n=173.28−2.59 · n=174.24−1.00 · n=173.97−2.55 · n=175.94−1.04 · n=186.60−2.34 · n=17KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC2.07−0.87 · n=172.76−1.35 · n=173.52−2.64 · n=173.17−2.62 · n=164.57−4.33 · n=175.91−3.55 · n=187.22−5.34 · n=187.20−5.27 · n=186.51−4.42 · n=186.57−3.51 · n=18KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD1.39−1.25 · n=171.89−1.89 · n=172.88−2.64 · n=173.42−3.28 · n=164.05−3.48 · n=175.57−4.83 · n=184.74−3.69 · n=186.84−5.42 · n=186.00−5.00 · n=186.42−5.73 · n=18KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL2.43−2.23 · n=173.17−1.86 · n=173.25−2.55 · n=172.80−2.02 · n=163.64−3.40 · n=174.56−4.15 · n=184.99−3.17 · n=184.52−3.97 · n=187.00−3.63 · n=186.55−3.54 · n=18KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX3.00−2.76 · n=173.60−3.59 · n=173.78−3.48 · n=172.98−2.41 · n=163.06−2.65 · n=172.55−2.01 · n=184.03−0.82 · n=184.14−0.08 · n=184.43+0.40 · n=18—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN5.63−5.63 · n=176.40−6.40 · n=176.80−6.80 · n=176.46−6.46 · n=166.82−6.82 · n=175.94−5.94 · n=185.39−5.16 · n=185.61−4.81 · n=187.55−5.99 · n=18—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT1.54−1.51 · n=172.69−2.69 · n=173.71−3.71 · n=173.99−3.99 · n=164.05−3.71 · n=174.71−4.18 · n=184.79−4.21 · n=186.15−4.47 · n=185.50−4.26 · n=184.76−3.74 · n=18KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA2.70−2.70 · n=173.30−3.30 · n=173.29−3.29 · n=174.42−4.42 · n=164.49−3.94 · n=173.98−3.73 · n=183.93−3.30 · n=184.45−3.31 · n=184.38−2.75 · n=18—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO4.16−3.58 · n=174.58−4.25 · n=175.31−4.49 · n=174.99−4.15 · n=165.40−3.05 · n=174.15−2.46 · n=185.62−1.98 · n=185.69−1.55 · n=186.28−3.30 · n=18—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN1.21−0.54 · n=172.06−0.44 · n=172.14−0.96 · n=172.32−0.64 · n=162.81−1.87 · n=173.68−2.62 · n=184.62−1.31 · n=183.73−2.57 · n=186.90−1.95 · n=187.11−2.32 · n=18KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.54−1.09 · n=171.60−0.44 · n=171.51−0.38 · n=171.75−0.01 · n=161.98+0.58 · n=172.61+1.02 · n=182.63+1.10 · n=182.84+1.33 · n=183.85+1.87 · n=184.46+1.92 · n=18KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS4.27+3.79 · n=174.62+3.48 · n=173.97+2.86 · n=174.55+3.37 · n=164.14+3.13 · n=174.46+3.12 · n=185.40+4.29 · n=184.61+3.23 · n=186.60+2.72 · n=187.23+2.40 · n=18KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS2.10−1.66 · n=161.39−0.63 · n=162.06−1.33 · n=162.23−0.90 · n=162.12−1.64 · n=163.47−0.64 · n=173.49−0.85 · n=184.51−0.29 · n=174.06+0.52 · n=185.40+0.35 · n=17KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA1.96−1.55 · n=171.20−0.21 · n=171.50+0.18 · n=170.99+0.01 · n=162.16−0.63 · n=172.15−1.43 · n=183.75−0.48 · n=183.81+0.04 · n=184.14+1.00 · n=185.76+0.25 · n=18KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN1.78−1.02 · n=172.70−1.66 · n=173.25−1.95 · n=173.91−2.30 · n=164.19−2.77 · n=174.92−4.10 · n=186.35−4.72 · n=186.19−4.38 · n=186.49−5.79 · n=18—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.37−0.06 · n=171.46−0.58 · n=171.62−0.67 · n=172.05−0.80 · n=162.14−0.69 · n=172.64−1.19 · n=183.49−0.86 · n=184.30−1.64 · n=185.78−1.82 · n=185.49−1.81 · n=18KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR1.65+1.28 · n=171.05+0.76 · n=171.92+0.92 · n=172.37+1.14 · n=162.44+0.02 · n=172.71−0.04 · n=183.17+0.61 · n=184.49+0.98 · n=184.76+2.02 · n=185.75+0.34 · n=18KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.95+1.62 · n=171.80+0.60 · n=171.91+0.98 · n=172.27−0.34 · n=163.28+0.17 · n=173.52+0.60 · n=183.99+1.28 · n=183.16+1.19 · n=185.52+1.69 · n=185.62+0.36 · n=18KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS2.57−2.57 · n=172.99−2.89 · n=173.12−3.08 · n=174.16−4.13 · n=163.44−3.03 · n=173.41−3.26 · n=184.23−3.02 · n=183.46−3.00 · n=183.29−2.28 · n=18—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX2.24−1.77 · n=171.93−1.69 · n=172.98−2.96 · n=173.47−3.47 · n=163.44−3.35 · n=173.06−2.70 · n=183.24−2.85 · n=182.74−2.19 · n=184.04−2.95 · n=18—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.35−0.13 · n=171.63−1.26 · n=171.83−1.49 · n=172.17−0.97 · n=162.29−1.37 · n=171.86−0.77 · n=181.96−0.58 · n=182.14−0.53 · n=182.51−0.67 · n=182.76−0.53 · n=18KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP1.38−0.68 · n=171.73−0.54 · n=171.55−0.68 · n=172.23−0.89 · n=162.59−1.58 · n=174.80−3.75 · n=184.88−3.33 · n=186.59−4.30 · n=185.95−3.83 · n=187.33−5.59 · n=18KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY2.23+0.71 · n=172.15+1.20 · n=172.84+1.89 · n=173.16+1.84 · n=163.10+2.11 · n=173.44+1.41 · n=184.41+2.81 · n=183.89+2.01 · n=185.43+2.86 · n=186.03+3.01 · n=18KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC1.34+0.47 · n=171.47−0.25 · n=161.76+0.02 · n=162.21+0.73 · n=162.19−0.58 · n=173.00−0.65 · n=172.97−0.00 · n=174.60+0.48 · n=174.68+1.29 · n=186.03+0.10 · n=17KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC2.98+2.68 · n=173.78+2.83 · n=173.17+1.95 · n=173.46+1.66 · n=163.42+2.57 · n=174.11+1.87 · n=184.97+1.74 · n=185.34−0.69 · n=186.09+0.28 · n=185.84+0.81 · n=18KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD1.48+0.39 · n=171.66+0.13 · n=172.09+0.14 · n=172.05−0.67 · n=162.60−0.48 · n=173.27−0.42 · n=183.65−0.24 · n=184.35−0.47 · n=185.94−0.85 · n=184.02−0.79 · n=18KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL1.61−1.39 · n=171.32−0.73 · n=171.67−0.73 · n=171.94−0.25 · n=162.29−1.16 · n=173.24−1.84 · n=184.50−1.51 · n=184.78−0.60 · n=184.80+0.23 · n=186.22−0.98 · n=18KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX4.04−4.04 · n=173.88−3.81 · n=174.10−4.10 · n=173.99−3.73 · n=164.31−4.13 · n=174.52−3.83 · n=184.07−3.12 · n=185.15−3.43 · n=184.10−2.75 · n=18—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN1.85+0.49 · n=171.92+0.06 · n=171.92−1.03 · n=171.95−0.74 · n=161.78−0.56 · n=171.91−0.72 · n=182.58−0.76 · n=182.98−0.60 · n=182.91−0.77 · n=18—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT2.37+1.13 · n=172.71+1.25 · n=172.17−0.15 · n=172.57+0.55 · n=162.30−0.25 · n=172.46+0.60 · n=183.00+0.47 · n=183.33+0.44 · n=185.19−0.38 · n=185.62−0.30 · n=18KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA0.95−0.15 · n=171.48−0.14 · n=171.55−0.53 · n=171.68+0.41 · n=162.10−0.84 · n=172.45−1.05 · n=183.29−0.67 · n=182.94−0.15 · n=183.08+0.02 · n=18—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO1.94+0.56 · n=172.14−0.15 · n=171.97−0.10 · n=172.23+0.03 · n=162.59+0.45 · n=171.90+0.23 · n=182.42+0.70 · n=182.47+1.28 · n=182.64+0.63 · n=18—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN2.73+2.68 · n=173.08+2.94 · n=173.61+3.12 · n=173.30+2.86 · n=163.87+2.94 · n=173.27+1.90 · n=184.50+2.53 · n=185.19+3.10 · n=185.97+4.18 · n=186.83+2.41 · n=18KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL3.27−3.27 · n=173.57−3.57 · n=173.47−2.80 · n=173.23−3.22 · n=163.99−2.95 · n=174.88−3.64 · n=184.99−3.71 · n=185.76−3.73 · n=187.02−2.95 · n=186.95−4.27 · n=18KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS6.07−6.00 · n=176.35−6.35 · n=178.34−8.34 · n=178.24−8.24 · n=168.40−8.40 · n=178.95−8.48 · n=189.51−9.17 · n=1810.34−8.85 · n=189.91−9.34 · n=189.09−7.79 · n=18KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS4.20−4.20 · n=174.23−4.23 · n=173.76−3.76 · n=173.30−3.16 · n=165.53−4.82 · n=176.64−6.26 · n=185.52−3.39 · n=186.12−4.80 · n=187.18−3.62 · n=188.03−5.41 · n=18KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA3.83−3.79 · n=174.02−3.94 · n=174.23−4.17 · n=174.69−4.69 · n=165.58−5.58 · n=176.91−6.23 · n=187.07−4.59 · n=187.00−6.23 · n=188.17−4.38 · n=188.34−5.80 · n=18KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN6.98−6.98 · n=176.93−6.93 · n=178.61−8.61 · n=178.56−8.56 · n=1610.06−10.01 · n=1710.87−9.59 · n=1811.32−10.28 · n=1811.99−10.27 · n=1811.34−10.61 · n=18—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW4.75−4.75 · n=175.96−5.96 · n=176.88−6.88 · n=176.86−6.86 · n=167.64−7.40 · n=177.54−7.36 · n=189.24−8.63 · n=189.68−8.64 · n=189.71−9.04 · n=188.83−6.63 · n=18KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR4.37−4.28 · n=174.82−4.82 · n=174.34−4.31 · n=175.06−5.06 · n=165.95−5.63 · n=177.56−7.36 · n=186.15−5.39 · n=187.32−7.26 · n=188.33−5.78 · n=188.77−6.86 · n=18KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH6.68−6.68 · n=177.03−6.80 · n=177.39−7.18 · n=177.12−7.12 · n=168.01−8.01 · n=177.90−7.27 · n=188.70−8.26 · n=188.38−7.45 · n=189.54−9.53 · n=188.63−7.62 · n=18KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS5.17−5.17 · n=175.26−5.26 · n=175.50−5.30 · n=175.90−5.90 · n=165.54−5.54 · n=175.72−5.69 · n=187.04−4.76 · n=186.07−5.17 · n=186.53−3.73 · n=18—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX5.92−5.92 · n=177.62−7.62 · n=178.54−8.54 · n=178.55−8.55 · n=167.41−7.37 · n=177.22−7.19 · n=185.88−5.33 · n=187.76−5.97 · n=188.83−7.07 · n=18—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA3.53−3.53 · n=173.58−3.58 · n=173.65−3.65 · n=174.11−4.11 · n=164.00−3.98 · n=173.66−3.60 · n=183.42−3.42 · n=183.43−3.01 · n=183.47−3.19 · n=183.27−2.70 · n=18KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP5.19−5.19 · n=176.21−6.21 · n=175.83−5.83 · n=176.85−6.85 · n=167.77−7.06 · n=179.81−9.81 · n=189.50−8.36 · n=1810.87−10.08 · n=1810.90−9.50 · n=1813.64−13.10 · n=18KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY5.62−5.62 · n=175.13−5.13 · n=175.00−5.00 · n=174.97−4.97 · n=165.61−5.61 · n=175.64−5.64 · n=185.46−5.13 · n=185.44−5.44 · n=185.83−4.70 · n=185.48−5.14 · n=18KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC1.85−1.57 · n=172.26−2.22 · n=172.46−1.95 · n=172.58−2.01 · n=163.60−2.86 · n=174.88−4.54 · n=184.48−2.61 · n=184.83−4.18 · n=186.55−2.99 · n=187.29−3.98 · n=18KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC4.30−3.69 · n=174.84−4.65 · n=176.17−5.94 · n=176.12−6.12 · n=167.38−7.38 · n=178.11−6.94 · n=189.77−8.40 · n=189.90−8.55 · n=188.83−7.42 · n=189.17−6.73 · n=18KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD3.78−3.78 · n=174.00−4.00 · n=174.98−4.98 · n=175.35−5.35 · n=166.24−5.90 · n=177.68−6.99 · n=186.46−6.18 · n=188.61−7.63 · n=187.43−7.11 · n=188.19−7.83 · n=18KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL4.16−4.06 · n=174.14−3.86 · n=174.28−3.97 · n=174.49−4.27 · n=165.70−5.63 · n=176.39−6.10 · n=186.10−4.84 · n=186.10−5.97 · n=188.17−5.24 · n=187.86−5.65 · n=18KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX5.87−5.87 · n=176.30−6.30 · n=176.01−6.01 · n=175.10−5.10 · n=165.54−5.54 · n=174.71−4.51 · n=185.03−3.26 · n=185.32−2.53 · n=185.62−2.32 · n=18—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN8.10−8.10 · n=178.93−8.93 · n=179.10−9.10 · n=178.83−8.83 · n=168.82−8.82 · n=178.27−8.27 · n=187.27−7.27 · n=187.37−7.37 · n=189.26−8.66 · n=18—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT5.10−5.10 · n=176.13−6.13 · n=177.56−7.56 · n=177.55−7.55 · n=167.48−7.48 · n=177.95−7.87 · n=188.10−7.96 · n=188.95−7.99 · n=188.12−7.93 · n=187.75−7.16 · n=18KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA4.26−4.26 · n=175.10−5.10 · n=174.82−4.82 · n=175.60−5.60 · n=165.86−5.33 · n=175.55−5.55 · n=184.81−4.73 · n=185.33−4.81 · n=185.04−4.11 · n=18—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO6.97−6.97 · n=176.87−6.87 · n=178.19−8.19 · n=177.65−7.65 · n=167.34−7.26 · n=176.45−6.44 · n=187.16−6.35 · n=186.65−5.38 · n=188.06−7.05 · n=18—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN2.57−2.25 · n=172.94−2.62 · n=172.97−2.55 · n=173.28−2.71 · n=164.40−3.81 · n=175.50−4.96 · n=185.17−2.98 · n=185.15−4.68 · n=187.67−3.84 · n=188.03−4.44 · n=18KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.40+0.14 · n=171.87+1.30 · n=171.29+0.95 · n=172.14+1.80 · n=162.23+2.05 · n=173.27+2.61 · n=183.20+2.30 · n=183.55+3.08 · n=184.08+3.32 · n=185.01+3.62 · n=18KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS5.57+5.26 · n=175.86+5.35 · n=174.95+4.38 · n=175.77+5.43 · n=165.51+5.25 · n=175.69+5.05 · n=186.61+5.67 · n=185.88+4.94 · n=187.40+4.11 · n=188.32+4.11 · n=18KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS1.40+0.83 · n=171.63+0.96 · n=172.14+1.09 · n=171.87+0.79 · n=161.83+0.93 · n=173.46+1.04 · n=183.58+1.37 · n=184.48+1.41 · n=185.35+2.80 · n=185.85+1.84 · n=18KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA1.15+0.27 · n=171.67+1.24 · n=172.36+2.00 · n=171.69+1.51 · n=162.55+1.07 · n=172.28+0.39 · n=183.44+1.23 · n=183.92+1.59 · n=184.95+2.84 · n=185.81+1.68 · n=18KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN2.31+1.45 · n=172.22+0.12 · n=172.49+0.13 · n=173.51−0.42 · n=163.26−0.53 · n=173.67−1.86 · n=184.61−2.75 · n=185.95−2.92 · n=185.20−3.57 · n=18—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW2.24+2.06 · n=171.62+1.20 · n=172.34+1.05 · n=172.57+1.20 · n=162.96+1.60 · n=173.01+0.54 · n=184.15+1.09 · n=184.39+0.10 · n=185.69+0.02 · n=185.68−0.02 · n=18KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR3.79+3.75 · n=172.87+2.75 · n=173.68+3.61 · n=173.41+2.96 · n=163.60+2.67 · n=174.07+2.34 · n=184.39+3.37 · n=185.14+3.14 · n=186.20+4.63 · n=186.33+2.55 · n=18KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH3.08+2.86 · n=173.21+2.86 · n=173.09+2.71 · n=173.13+2.10 · n=164.09+2.17 · n=174.49+2.90 · n=184.67+2.74 · n=184.32+3.71 · n=185.95+3.19 · n=186.38+2.83 · n=18KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS1.74−1.39 · n=172.44−1.19 · n=172.12−1.56 · n=173.15−2.20 · n=162.33−1.80 · n=172.78−1.71 · n=183.22−1.58 · n=182.77−1.17 · n=182.82−0.84 · n=18—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.36+0.04 · n=171.11−0.20 · n=171.17−0.98 · n=171.81−1.73 · n=161.83−1.41 · n=171.92−1.29 · n=182.18−1.00 · n=182.19−0.73 · n=183.42−1.01 · n=18—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA1.65+1.46 · n=171.23+0.27 · n=171.41+0.33 · n=171.63+0.41 · n=162.22+0.92 · n=171.69+0.68 · n=182.22+1.20 · n=182.26+1.08 · n=182.56+1.11 · n=182.33+1.08 · n=18KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP2.16+1.55 · n=172.16+1.58 · n=171.73+1.03 · n=172.52+1.73 · n=162.79+0.77 · n=174.69−1.64 · n=184.91−1.32 · n=185.85−1.63 · n=184.92−2.39 · n=185.27−2.70 · n=18KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY3.11+2.47 · n=173.86+3.72 · n=174.04+3.66 · n=174.56+4.21 · n=164.42+3.64 · n=175.17+3.96 · n=185.06+4.25 · n=185.41+4.45 · n=186.38+4.86 · n=186.89+5.50 · n=18KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.30+1.76 · n=171.82+1.13 · n=172.43+2.00 · n=172.08+1.61 · n=162.23+0.72 · n=173.23+0.92 · n=183.17+1.64 · n=184.26+1.69 · n=185.23+2.68 · n=185.83+1.36 · n=18KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC4.09+4.09 · n=174.43+3.91 · n=173.83+3.38 · n=174.33+3.23 · n=164.38+4.16 · n=174.41+3.28 · n=185.12+3.21 · n=185.23+0.83 · n=186.10+1.94 · n=185.80+1.89 · n=18KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD2.17+2.06 · n=172.26+1.72 · n=172.71+1.53 · n=172.82+0.89 · n=162.73+1.24 · n=173.96+0.92 · n=183.54+1.09 · n=184.73+0.85 · n=185.85+0.72 · n=184.42+0.82 · n=18KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL1.30+0.49 · n=171.66+1.29 · n=172.29+1.65 · n=172.37+1.44 · n=162.51+0.72 · n=173.33+0.35 · n=184.16+0.67 · n=184.89+1.09 · n=185.63+2.40 · n=186.27+0.71 · n=18KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX2.74−2.63 · n=172.85−2.65 · n=173.00−2.65 · n=173.21−2.67 · n=163.58−2.84 · n=174.01−2.46 · n=183.82−1.98 · n=184.56−2.01 · n=183.68−1.31 · n=18—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN2.28+2.26 · n=172.30+1.87 · n=171.58+1.07 · n=172.01+1.01 · n=161.88+1.38 · n=172.28+1.27 · n=182.42+1.17 · n=182.77+1.22 · n=183.01+1.01 · n=18—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT2.42+1.96 · n=173.15+2.33 · n=172.05+0.58 · n=173.03+1.93 · n=162.31+0.86 · n=173.31+1.74 · n=182.95+1.33 · n=184.06+1.41 · n=185.14+0.29 · n=186.14+0.89 · n=18KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA1.82+1.50 · n=172.02+1.76 · n=171.77+1.42 · n=172.44+2.35 · n=161.97+0.81 · n=172.10+1.02 · n=183.22+1.18 · n=182.90+1.87 · n=183.38+1.79 · n=18—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO2.11+1.56 · n=172.13+0.85 · n=171.87+0.84 · n=172.41+0.97 · n=162.42+1.33 · n=171.92+1.12 · n=182.38+1.58 · n=183.11+2.17 · n=182.86+1.63 · n=18—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN5.39+5.39 · n=175.87+5.87 · n=176.66+6.64 · n=176.07+5.93 · n=166.29+5.76 · n=175.98+5.33 · n=186.35+5.91 · n=185.87+5.53 · n=188.28+7.46 · n=187.50+4.95 · n=18KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.