Model
Aurora (GFS init)
aurora_gfs
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 3.33−3.33 · n=2 | 4.34−4.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 4.17−0.05 · n=2 | 4.47−2.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 3.53−3.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 2.49−2.49 · n=2 | 3.40−3.40 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 3.00−1.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 3.05−2.47 · n=2 | 3.44−3.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 2.45−1.84 · n=2 | 2.58−1.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 2.66−1.49 · n=2 | 3.23−2.99 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 7.21−7.21 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 2.52−2.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 2.69−1.83 · n=2 | 3.28−3.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 3.11−3.11 · n=2 | 4.34−4.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 3.80−3.80 · n=2 | 3.23−3.23 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.28−0.56 · n=2 | 1.68−0.32 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 3.97−0.66 · n=2 | 4.81−0.58 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 2.00−1.43 · n=2 | 4.59−4.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 2.67−2.54 · n=2 | 3.36−2.89 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 8.95−8.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 4.44−4.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 3.01−2.06 · n=2 | 4.09−4.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 2.02−2.02 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 2.91−2.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 2.54+1.28 · n=2 | 4.13+1.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 3.56−3.56 · n=2 | 5.31−5.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 6.72−6.72 · n=2 | 8.28−8.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 2.62−2.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 2.15−2.15 · n=2 | 2.99−2.99 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 4.33−4.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 4.21−4.21 · n=2 | 5.39−5.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 2.66−2.66 · n=2 | 2.80−2.80 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 2.44−2.44 · n=2 | 3.54−3.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 6.20−6.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 4.27−4.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 4.13−4.13 · n=2 | 6.92−6.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 5.32−5.32 · n=2 | 8.97−8.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 5.96−5.96 · n=2 | 4.57−4.57 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 0.88−0.88 · n=2 | 0.62−0.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 3.74−3.74 · n=2 | 4.94−4.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 3.25−2.62 · n=2 | 8.53−8.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 2.33−2.33 · n=2 | 5.15−5.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 12.07−12.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 8.69−8.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 6.80−6.80 · n=2 | 7.84−7.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 5.31−5.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 4.28−4.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 1.09+1.09 · n=2 | 0.07+0.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 1.46−1.46 · n=2 | 1.51−1.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 5.26+5.26 · n=2 | 4.37+4.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 4.16−4.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 2.39−2.39 · n=2 | 3.06−3.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 3.10+3.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 1.15+1.15 · n=2 | 0.29−0.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 0.65−0.53 · n=2 | 0.33+0.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 0.74+0.74 · n=2 | 0.48+0.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 8.53−8.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 1.96−1.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 0.74−0.74 · n=2 | 1.95−1.95 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 1.03−1.03 · n=2 | 1.98−1.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 1.59−1.56 · n=2 | 3.10−3.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 0.53+0.27 · n=2 | 0.30−0.30 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 4.38+4.38 · n=2 | 4.10+4.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 1.25+0.41 · n=2 | 2.31−2.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 1.21−1.21 · n=2 | 0.04+0.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 7.52−7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 1.14−1.14 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 1.54−0.31 · n=2 | 2.60−2.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 1.30−1.30 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 0.16−0.16 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 3.10+3.10 · n=2 | 5.91+5.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 6.56−6.56 · n=2 | 7.31−7.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 8.92−8.92 · n=2 | 9.68−9.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 4.39−4.39 · n=2 | 5.36−5.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 7.05−7.05 · n=2 | 8.79−8.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 7.61−7.61 · n=2 | 5.90−5.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 7.21−7.21 · n=2 | 7.39−7.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 4.36−4.36 · n=2 | 3.20−3.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 6.44−6.44 · n=2 | 7.54−7.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 6.44−6.44 · n=2 | 6.07−6.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 6.93−6.93 · n=2 | 6.28−6.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 6.63−6.63 · n=2 | 6.92−6.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 7.82−7.82 · n=2 | 8.97−8.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 7.46−7.46 · n=2 | 5.57−5.57 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.34−1.34 · n=2 | 0.54−0.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 8.24−8.24 · n=2 | 8.94−8.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 4.12−4.12 · n=2 | 8.53−8.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 5.33−5.33 · n=2 | 7.15−7.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 13.30−13.30 · n=2 | 15.69−15.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 6.71−6.71 · n=2 | 4.48−4.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 7.90−7.90 · n=2 | 8.04−8.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 6.50−6.50 · n=2 | 4.84−4.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 6.92−6.92 · n=2 | 6.19−6.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 1.91−1.91 · n=2 | 2.93−2.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 0.96−0.96 · n=2 | 0.51−0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 5.76+5.76 · n=2 | 4.37+4.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 3.31−3.31 · n=2 | 5.13−5.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 1.24−0.39 · n=2 | 1.06−1.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 3.99+3.99 · n=2 | 1.94+1.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 1.15+1.15 · n=2 | 0.29−0.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 1.97+1.97 · n=2 | 2.33+2.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 0.74+0.74 · n=2 | 0.48+0.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 7.33−7.33 · n=2 | 8.46−8.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 2.72−2.72 · n=2 | 2.93−2.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 2.94+1.06 · n=2 | 2.35−2.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 1.45−0.53 · n=2 | 1.98−1.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 2.59−0.56 · n=2 | 3.10−3.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 0.77+0.77 · n=2 | 0.70+0.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 5.88+5.88 · n=2 | 4.10+4.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 1.41+1.41 · n=2 | 0.31−0.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 0.79+0.79 · n=2 | 2.04+2.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 5.90−5.90 · n=2 | 8.23−8.23 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 2.42−2.42 · n=2 | 3.19−3.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 1.54−0.31 · n=2 | 2.60−2.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 0.90+0.80 · n=2 | 0.01−0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 0.54+0.30 · n=2 | 0.36−0.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 5.60+5.60 · n=2 | 6.91+6.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.