CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (GFS init)

aurora_gfs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp GFS initAURO_v100
Window
the last 30 days
Init
12Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.60−0.76 · n=231.68−0.47 · n=241.80−0.22 · n=232.13−0.36 · n=232.67−0.24 · n=233.22+0.31 · n=223.83+0.08 · n=224.51−0.02 · n=225.11−0.56 · n=21KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS—3.97−0.31 · n=233.96−0.71 · n=244.01−0.82 · n=234.37−1.24 · n=234.52−1.81 · n=235.10−1.33 · n=226.03−1.08 · n=226.32−2.30 · n=227.31−2.89 · n=21KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS—2.36−1.81 · n=222.62−1.89 · n=232.82−2.37 · n=222.92−2.43 · n=223.55−2.05 · n=234.54−1.81 · n=225.39−1.34 · n=225.00−0.93 · n=216.26−0.23 · n=20KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA—1.86−1.32 · n=231.90−1.10 · n=242.12−1.19 · n=232.82−1.73 · n=233.34−1.99 · n=234.33−1.84 · n=224.17−1.60 · n=225.45−0.92 · n=226.04−1.14 · n=21KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN—2.75−1.97 · n=233.44−2.86 · n=244.23−3.61 · n=235.06−4.01 · n=236.52−4.60 · n=237.28−5.64 · n=228.28−7.40 · n=229.24−8.02 · n=229.72−8.56 · n=21KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW—2.03−1.31 · n=232.50−2.03 · n=242.60−2.02 · n=233.38−2.75 · n=233.81−3.26 · n=234.36−3.03 · n=225.65−3.65 · n=226.49−4.85 · n=227.65−5.69 · n=21KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR—2.33−1.20 · n=232.38−1.24 · n=242.79−1.52 · n=233.01−1.79 · n=233.56−1.72 · n=234.46−1.76 · n=224.66−1.39 · n=225.00−0.90 · n=226.03−0.86 · n=21KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH—2.68−1.20 · n=232.79−1.51 · n=243.06−1.75 · n=233.20−1.63 · n=233.69−1.82 · n=234.23−1.41 · n=224.43−1.55 · n=225.21−2.46 · n=225.95−3.26 · n=21KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS—3.15−2.93 · n=233.52−3.28 · n=243.65−3.54 · n=233.82−3.41 · n=234.54−3.92 · n=235.04−3.91 · n=225.44−2.87 · n=225.29−2.72 · n=225.11−3.12 · n=21KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX—3.33−3.10 · n=233.98−3.76 · n=244.15−3.83 · n=234.75−4.35 · n=234.85−4.38 · n=235.07−3.88 · n=225.26−3.27 · n=225.02−3.11 · n=225.18−3.14 · n=21KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA—2.03−1.46 · n=232.23−1.66 · n=242.42−1.68 · n=232.62−1.77 · n=232.68−1.94 · n=232.64−1.64 · n=222.51−1.45 · n=222.66−1.41 · n=222.74−1.26 · n=21KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP—2.36−1.53 · n=232.63−1.65 · n=243.28−2.49 · n=234.23−3.44 · n=235.46−4.78 · n=236.74−5.59 · n=227.70−5.97 · n=228.15−6.84 · n=229.03−7.83 · n=21KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY—2.35−0.41 · n=232.41−0.33 · n=242.44−0.46 · n=232.65−0.64 · n=233.21−0.30 · n=233.43−0.15 · n=223.75−0.26 · n=224.83−0.17 · n=225.05−0.26 · n=21KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC—1.54−0.33 · n=231.79−0.29 · n=232.07−0.51 · n=222.33−0.83 · n=222.77−0.63 · n=223.54−0.61 · n=214.10−0.33 · n=214.41+0.23 · n=215.73+0.11 · n=20KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC—3.35+1.31 · n=233.24+0.60 · n=243.33+0.12 · n=233.78−0.63 · n=234.65−1.37 · n=235.42−1.81 · n=225.76−2.79 · n=226.35−3.34 · n=226.45−3.72 · n=21KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD—1.89−0.91 · n=232.44−0.89 · n=243.08−1.21 · n=233.48−2.31 · n=234.21−2.58 · n=234.38−2.64 · n=225.79−2.98 · n=226.68−3.70 · n=227.15−4.94 · n=21KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL—2.36−1.83 · n=232.48−1.70 · n=242.69−1.92 · n=233.11−2.31 · n=233.45−2.36 · n=234.57−2.31 · n=224.72−1.92 · n=225.40−1.49 · n=226.11−1.68 · n=21KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX—3.18−2.56 · n=233.44−3.10 · n=243.66−3.13 · n=233.85−3.14 · n=234.02−2.93 · n=234.58−2.96 · n=225.05−1.97 · n=225.44−1.23 · n=225.43−1.74 · n=21KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN—3.64−3.12 · n=234.19−3.76 · n=244.62−4.31 · n=234.87−4.60 · n=234.92−4.55 · n=234.94−4.17 · n=224.79−3.79 · n=225.07−3.71 · n=224.97−3.52 · n=21KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT—2.82−1.53 · n=233.17−2.08 · n=243.25−2.27 · n=233.44−2.42 · n=233.99−3.15 · n=234.56−2.91 · n=225.44−2.64 · n=225.74−3.66 · n=226.68−4.50 · n=21KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA—2.57−2.06 · n=232.57−1.85 · n=242.70−1.88 · n=232.98−1.92 · n=233.09−1.71 · n=233.09−1.61 · n=223.40−1.82 · n=223.62−1.48 · n=223.53−0.92 · n=21KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO—2.75−0.68 · n=233.03−0.81 · n=243.32−1.13 · n=233.65−1.08 · n=233.38−1.02 · n=233.42−0.98 · n=223.57−0.54 · n=223.57−0.59 · n=224.40−0.54 · n=21KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN—2.20+1.14 · n=232.27+1.12 · n=242.60+0.99 · n=232.94+0.74 · n=233.46+0.65 · n=234.42+0.69 · n=224.60+1.06 · n=225.50+1.61 · n=226.63+1.47 · n=21KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.24−0.08 · n=231.21−0.05 · n=241.78−0.11 · n=232.17−0.41 · n=232.92−0.41 · n=233.61−0.34 · n=224.60−1.32 · n=225.86−1.67 · n=226.28−2.84 · n=21KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS—3.07−2.90 · n=233.24−2.83 · n=243.58−2.79 · n=233.93−3.48 · n=234.70−4.27 · n=235.02−4.18 · n=226.38−4.41 · n=226.97−5.80 · n=228.12−6.75 · n=21KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS—2.28−1.99 · n=222.59−2.08 · n=232.92−2.76 · n=223.23−2.72 · n=224.08−2.50 · n=234.49−2.95 · n=226.04−2.64 · n=225.54−2.14 · n=217.64−1.05 · n=20KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA—2.28−2.02 · n=232.44−1.90 · n=243.18−2.66 · n=233.65−2.99 · n=234.25−3.01 · n=235.86−3.16 · n=225.20−2.94 · n=226.49−2.63 · n=227.93−3.40 · n=21KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN—2.70−2.51 · n=233.60−3.46 · n=244.81−4.30 · n=235.61−4.90 · n=237.65−5.49 · n=238.12−6.53 · n=229.15−8.38 · n=229.72−8.06 · n=229.89−8.78 · n=21KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW—2.07−1.99 · n=232.69−2.66 · n=242.78−2.78 · n=233.61−3.49 · n=234.50−4.12 · n=235.34−4.41 · n=226.62−5.17 · n=227.70−6.29 · n=228.90−7.17 · n=21KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR—3.03−2.84 · n=233.19−2.76 · n=243.85−3.46 · n=233.86−3.43 · n=234.19−3.41 · n=235.48−4.08 · n=225.41−3.99 · n=225.91−3.77 · n=227.57−3.33 · n=21KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH—3.60−3.47 · n=234.17−3.39 · n=244.19−3.39 · n=234.50−3.55 · n=235.20−4.16 · n=235.13−3.67 · n=225.58−4.24 · n=227.48−6.24 · n=228.17−6.66 · n=21KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS—3.30−3.25 · n=233.71−3.52 · n=244.09−3.70 · n=233.98−3.73 · n=234.76−4.27 · n=235.83−4.11 · n=226.38−2.50 · n=226.05−2.22 · n=226.16−2.91 · n=21KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX—4.36−4.23 · n=235.05−5.05 · n=245.01−5.01 · n=235.94−5.62 · n=235.93−5.57 · n=236.00−4.93 · n=226.36−4.24 · n=226.20−4.14 · n=226.34−4.03 · n=21KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA—2.12−1.64 · n=232.41−1.70 · n=242.41−1.38 · n=232.51−1.53 · n=232.64−1.97 · n=232.93−1.85 · n=222.77−1.87 · n=222.88−1.46 · n=223.26−1.44 · n=21KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP—2.19−1.54 · n=232.84−2.09 · n=243.55−3.55 · n=234.94−4.46 · n=236.19−5.94 · n=237.94−6.93 · n=228.51−7.10 · n=228.82−8.06 · n=229.28−8.75 · n=21KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY—2.78−2.72 · n=232.87−2.78 · n=243.04−3.02 · n=233.14−3.07 · n=233.23−2.60 · n=233.47−2.38 · n=223.92−2.84 · n=224.83−3.00 · n=224.51−3.69 · n=21KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC—1.15+0.47 · n=231.44+0.54 · n=231.86−0.07 · n=221.99−0.21 · n=222.51−0.44 · n=223.44−1.30 · n=214.07−1.05 · n=214.37−0.75 · n=216.73−0.56 · n=20KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC—2.50−0.95 · n=232.53−1.76 · n=243.15−2.40 · n=234.01−3.52 · n=235.76−4.44 · n=237.05−5.10 · n=228.14−6.19 · n=228.45−6.64 · n=228.26−6.73 · n=21KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD—1.82−1.58 · n=232.32−1.71 · n=242.95−1.90 · n=234.24−3.33 · n=235.17−4.35 · n=235.26−4.43 · n=226.69−5.29 · n=227.57−6.05 · n=227.75−6.89 · n=21KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL—2.36−1.78 · n=232.50−1.66 · n=243.01−2.31 · n=233.27−2.70 · n=233.18−2.78 · n=234.74−3.24 · n=224.86−3.10 · n=225.71−2.94 · n=227.49−2.90 · n=21KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX—2.69−2.48 · n=232.89−2.70 · n=242.98−2.49 · n=233.09−2.89 · n=232.84−2.30 · n=233.85−2.05 · n=223.69−0.64 · n=225.01+0.24 · n=224.78−0.73 · n=21KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN—5.78−5.78 · n=236.58−6.58 · n=247.08−7.08 · n=237.66−7.66 · n=237.48−7.48 · n=237.30−6.69 · n=226.64−6.10 · n=226.98−5.94 · n=226.92−5.84 · n=21KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT—2.63−2.63 · n=233.24−3.16 · n=243.48−3.25 · n=233.74−3.62 · n=234.43−4.32 · n=234.72−4.31 · n=225.76−4.34 · n=226.55−5.45 · n=227.16−6.34 · n=21KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA—3.82−3.82 · n=233.58−3.58 · n=243.93−3.93 · n=234.37−3.67 · n=234.27−3.94 · n=234.30−3.97 · n=224.63−3.89 · n=223.88−2.72 · n=224.33−2.78 · n=21KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO—3.74−3.01 · n=234.28−3.21 · n=245.11−3.78 · n=235.84−3.67 · n=235.09−3.18 · n=235.30−3.05 · n=225.20−2.24 · n=225.23−2.18 · n=226.68−2.31 · n=21KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN—1.29−0.36 · n=231.75−0.22 · n=242.16−0.99 · n=232.55−1.14 · n=232.81−1.18 · n=234.04−1.59 · n=224.47−1.22 · n=224.92−1.17 · n=227.44−1.08 · n=21KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.49−0.61 · n=231.74−0.13 · n=241.66+0.28 · n=231.51+0.06 · n=232.18+0.46 · n=232.69+1.50 · n=223.14+1.57 · n=223.83+2.00 · n=224.15+2.20 · n=21KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS—4.48+3.56 · n=234.09+2.94 · n=244.09+2.73 · n=234.28+2.63 · n=234.34+2.16 · n=234.66+3.04 · n=225.13+3.49 · n=225.31+2.84 · n=225.95+2.28 · n=21KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS—1.95−1.25 · n=222.16−1.21 · n=232.20−1.45 · n=222.08−1.87 · n=222.43−1.28 · n=234.00−0.28 · n=224.72+0.49 · n=224.35+0.94 · n=215.55+1.36 · n=20KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA—1.32−0.26 · n=231.40−0.05 · n=241.31+0.19 · n=231.97−0.44 · n=232.18−0.83 · n=233.29−0.31 · n=223.44−0.05 · n=224.98+1.16 · n=224.64+1.13 · n=21KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN—2.28−1.36 · n=232.71−2.02 · n=243.42−2.41 · n=234.31−2.95 · n=235.15−3.33 · n=235.87−4.33 · n=226.36−5.86 · n=227.32−7.08 · n=227.83−7.21 · n=21KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW—1.62+0.28 · n=231.57−0.43 · n=241.80−0.46 · n=232.21−0.87 · n=232.66−1.44 · n=232.82−0.89 · n=223.53−1.07 · n=224.64−1.89 · n=225.74−2.99 · n=21KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR—1.42+0.97 · n=231.59+0.67 · n=241.81+0.70 · n=232.31+0.17 · n=232.24+0.36 · n=233.52+0.98 · n=224.33+1.35 · n=224.38+2.30 · n=225.20+2.24 · n=21KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH—1.83+1.10 · n=231.67+0.38 · n=242.12−0.07 · n=232.30+0.39 · n=233.16+0.56 · n=233.90+1.29 · n=223.76+1.22 · n=224.19+1.10 · n=224.58−0.05 · n=21KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS—2.65−2.52 · n=233.12−3.03 · n=243.38−3.36 · n=233.13−3.01 · n=233.65−3.39 · n=233.94−3.42 · n=224.18−2.72 · n=223.79−2.60 · n=223.50−2.47 · n=21KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX—2.13−1.90 · n=232.60−2.52 · n=243.11−3.07 · n=233.32−3.26 · n=233.68−3.66 · n=233.90−3.69 · n=223.92−3.13 · n=223.89−2.71 · n=223.48−2.45 · n=21KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA—1.72−0.85 · n=231.65−1.09 · n=241.95−1.32 · n=232.18−1.30 · n=232.29−1.39 · n=232.16−1.03 · n=222.18−0.70 · n=222.40−0.68 · n=222.30−0.60 · n=21KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP—1.66−0.46 · n=231.95−0.38 · n=242.25−0.78 · n=232.89−1.85 · n=234.02−3.11 · n=234.98−3.61 · n=225.40−3.28 · n=226.42−4.58 · n=227.40−5.56 · n=21KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY—2.51+1.45 · n=232.52+1.67 · n=242.43+1.58 · n=232.52+1.24 · n=233.42+1.71 · n=233.57+2.07 · n=224.15+2.11 · n=225.49+2.49 · n=225.89+2.67 · n=21KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC—1.48+0.22 · n=231.90+0.11 · n=232.00+0.13 · n=222.43−0.47 · n=222.44−0.09 · n=223.30+0.75 · n=214.42+0.99 · n=214.70+1.93 · n=215.80+1.77 · n=20KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC—3.84+3.16 · n=233.76+2.25 · n=243.25+2.07 · n=233.40+1.90 · n=234.22+1.46 · n=234.55+1.21 · n=224.15+0.47 · n=225.31−0.45 · n=225.40−1.04 · n=21KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD—1.64+0.53 · n=232.01+0.82 · n=242.36−0.08 · n=232.89−0.78 · n=232.92−0.32 · n=233.29−0.45 · n=224.62−0.03 · n=225.66−0.65 · n=226.43−2.44 · n=21KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL—1.56−0.95 · n=231.79−0.94 · n=241.94−0.92 · n=232.26−1.34 · n=232.69−1.44 · n=233.96−0.97 · n=224.30−0.34 · n=225.24+0.52 · n=225.01+0.17 · n=21KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX—3.15−2.96 · n=233.83−3.83 · n=244.17−4.17 · n=234.16−4.01 · n=234.44−3.90 · n=234.48−4.46 · n=225.39−4.38 · n=225.25−3.85 · n=225.13−3.36 · n=21KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN—1.65+0.20 · n=231.99−0.50 · n=242.26−1.25 · n=232.14−1.21 · n=232.33−1.22 · n=232.69−1.19 · n=223.02−1.04 · n=223.37−0.78 · n=223.63−0.75 · n=21KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT—2.47+0.97 · n=232.39+0.42 · n=242.43+0.11 · n=232.25+0.09 · n=232.55−0.69 · n=232.76−0.18 · n=223.66+0.80 · n=223.84+0.19 · n=225.24−0.66 · n=21KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA—1.47−0.65 · n=231.79−0.75 · n=241.71−0.58 · n=231.96−0.93 · n=231.69−0.28 · n=232.28+0.06 · n=222.40−0.05 · n=223.67−0.41 · n=223.36+0.39 · n=21KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO—2.16+1.05 · n=232.24+1.12 · n=242.07+0.77 · n=232.23+0.71 · n=232.03+0.49 · n=231.93+0.67 · n=222.76+0.71 · n=222.62+0.56 · n=223.02+0.71 · n=21KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN—3.11+3.06 · n=232.97+2.69 · n=243.32+2.95 · n=233.35+2.54 · n=233.44+2.18 · n=234.62+2.76 · n=225.12+3.17 · n=226.14+4.46 · n=226.71+4.15 · n=21KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.95−2.95 · n=232.87−2.84 · n=243.44−2.67 · n=234.06−2.97 · n=234.64−3.02 · n=234.90−3.02 · n=225.57−3.95 · n=226.91−4.49 · n=227.36−5.64 · n=21KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS—7.07−7.07 · n=237.12−7.12 · n=247.19−7.00 · n=237.56−7.53 · n=238.53−8.49 · n=238.63−8.63 · n=2210.11−8.77 · n=2211.31−10.43 · n=2212.55−11.36 · n=21KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS—3.52−3.51 · n=233.74−3.61 · n=244.52−4.52 · n=234.62−4.56 · n=234.92−3.96 · n=235.18−4.48 · n=226.22−4.26 · n=225.58−3.62 · n=227.62−2.86 · n=21KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA—3.67−3.67 · n=233.79−3.77 · n=244.55−4.53 · n=235.28−4.90 · n=235.53−4.88 · n=237.22−4.89 · n=226.69−4.80 · n=227.58−4.45 · n=228.88−5.16 · n=21KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN—7.38−7.38 · n=238.55−8.55 · n=249.52−9.52 · n=2310.06−10.03 · n=2311.60−10.40 · n=2311.84−11.58 · n=2213.76−13.61 · n=2214.06−13.15 · n=2213.88−13.44 · n=21KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW—5.42−5.42 · n=235.95−5.95 · n=246.13−6.13 · n=236.88−6.88 · n=237.65−7.56 · n=238.43−7.78 · n=229.62−8.72 · n=2210.88−9.89 · n=2211.95−10.50 · n=21KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR—4.43−4.36 · n=234.69−4.57 · n=245.35−5.35 · n=235.35−5.19 · n=235.76−5.34 · n=236.83−6.01 · n=226.42−5.60 · n=226.53−5.25 · n=227.98−4.92 · n=21KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH—6.99−6.99 · n=236.94−6.81 · n=247.33−7.04 · n=237.49−7.20 · n=238.15−7.73 · n=238.02−7.40 · n=228.76−8.06 · n=2210.26−9.87 · n=2210.93−10.09 · n=21KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS—5.02−5.02 · n=235.26−5.26 · n=245.51−5.51 · n=235.41−5.41 · n=235.83−5.65 · n=236.71−5.51 · n=226.89−4.08 · n=226.72−3.98 · n=226.67−4.43 · n=21KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX—6.97−6.97 · n=237.80−7.80 · n=247.53−7.53 · n=238.39−8.32 · n=238.45−8.36 · n=238.23−7.61 · n=228.15−6.83 · n=228.29−7.01 · n=227.72−6.69 · n=21KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA—3.33−3.33 · n=233.49−3.45 · n=243.60−3.60 · n=233.62−3.62 · n=233.97−3.97 · n=233.90−3.90 · n=223.78−3.78 · n=223.69−3.46 · n=223.63−3.01 · n=21KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP—4.89−4.81 · n=235.30−5.21 · n=246.43−6.43 · n=237.82−7.55 · n=239.25−9.20 · n=2310.90−10.25 · n=2211.47−10.74 · n=2211.98−11.84 · n=2212.67−12.47 · n=21KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY—5.06−5.06 · n=235.07−5.07 · n=245.15−5.15 · n=235.24−5.24 · n=234.86−4.86 · n=234.77−4.65 · n=225.50−5.25 · n=226.30−5.46 · n=226.09−5.98 · n=21KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC—1.79−1.57 · n=232.11−1.75 · n=242.67−2.45 · n=232.89−2.48 · n=233.22−2.46 · n=234.42−2.98 · n=224.30−2.82 · n=224.83−2.52 · n=226.88−2.10 · n=21KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC—4.34−4.03 · n=234.84−4.80 · n=245.53−5.41 · n=236.76−6.70 · n=238.12−7.66 · n=239.59−8.19 · n=2210.85−9.42 · n=2211.59−9.87 · n=2211.09−9.97 · n=21KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD—3.75−3.75 · n=234.15−3.86 · n=244.82−3.98 · n=236.10−5.45 · n=237.15−6.61 · n=237.01−6.83 · n=228.76−7.82 · n=229.31−8.49 · n=229.50−9.21 · n=21KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL—3.87−3.65 · n=233.88−3.75 · n=244.60−4.40 · n=234.94−4.79 · n=234.89−4.57 · n=236.47−5.15 · n=226.33−4.97 · n=226.31−4.44 · n=228.30−4.67 · n=21KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX—5.22−5.22 · n=235.33−5.33 · n=245.14−5.14 · n=235.20−5.20 · n=234.81−4.69 · n=235.26−4.64 · n=225.13−3.46 · n=225.89−2.67 · n=225.91−3.50 · n=21KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN—8.17−8.17 · n=238.96−8.96 · n=249.48−9.48 · n=2310.09−10.09 · n=2310.13−10.13 · n=239.41−9.23 · n=228.62−8.60 · n=228.62−8.39 · n=228.21−8.12 · n=21KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT—6.41−6.41 · n=236.64−6.64 · n=246.62−6.62 · n=237.12−7.12 · n=237.95−7.95 · n=237.79−7.65 · n=228.82−7.77 · n=229.82−9.34 · n=2210.51−9.98 · n=21KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA—5.19−5.19 · n=235.02−5.02 · n=245.35−5.35 · n=235.79−5.26 · n=235.55−5.31 · n=235.31−5.18 · n=225.43−5.28 · n=224.83−4.39 · n=225.06−4.21 · n=21KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO—6.65−6.65 · n=237.03−7.03 · n=247.72−7.72 · n=237.66−7.65 · n=237.34−7.25 · n=237.32−7.12 · n=226.96−5.99 · n=227.07−5.84 · n=227.05−5.74 · n=21KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN—2.61−2.27 · n=232.62−2.18 · n=243.13−2.91 · n=233.71−3.10 · n=234.12−3.10 · n=235.26−3.32 · n=225.25−3.22 · n=225.71−3.04 · n=227.72−2.71 · n=21KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 30 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.24+0.61 · n=231.73+1.35 · n=242.04+1.79 · n=231.95+1.52 · n=232.58+1.92 · n=233.38+2.98 · n=224.16+3.23 · n=224.43+3.48 · n=224.53+3.66 · n=21KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS—5.34+4.91 · n=235.08+4.60 · n=245.09+4.55 · n=235.28+4.57 · n=235.55+4.10 · n=236.13+4.94 · n=226.32+5.30 · n=226.16+4.37 · n=226.82+3.79 · n=21KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS—1.69+0.87 · n=231.69+0.73 · n=241.91+0.72 · n=231.72+0.35 · n=232.54+1.02 · n=234.22+2.09 · n=224.64+2.53 · n=224.88+2.91 · n=226.62+3.02 · n=21KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA—1.76+1.30 · n=231.88+1.40 · n=242.13+1.70 · n=232.15+1.21 · n=232.36+0.81 · n=233.40+1.32 · n=223.89+1.67 · n=225.36+2.97 · n=225.07+2.74 · n=21KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN—2.26+0.51 · n=232.31−0.08 · n=242.58−0.30 · n=233.36−0.75 · n=233.84−1.10 · n=234.74−2.22 · n=225.21−3.79 · n=225.70−5.11 · n=226.60−5.67 · n=21KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW—2.48+1.94 · n=232.30+1.45 · n=242.41+1.64 · n=232.65+1.27 · n=233.14+0.53 · n=233.58+1.07 · n=223.62+0.62 · n=224.32−0.52 · n=224.82−1.26 · n=21KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR—3.09+3.06 · n=233.00+2.74 · n=243.45+3.04 · n=233.83+2.72 · n=234.07+3.00 · n=235.01+3.65 · n=225.59+3.89 · n=225.71+4.88 · n=226.52+4.42 · n=21KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH—3.06+2.75 · n=232.91+2.52 · n=243.02+2.08 · n=233.30+2.40 · n=234.06+2.66 · n=234.75+3.17 · n=224.93+3.10 · n=224.74+2.75 · n=225.07+1.73 · n=21KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS—2.05−0.86 · n=232.06−1.45 · n=242.21−1.67 · n=232.29−1.32 · n=232.59−1.74 · n=232.87−1.78 · n=223.67−1.40 · n=223.48−1.11 · n=223.22−1.00 · n=21KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX—1.25−0.12 · n=231.33−0.70 · n=241.70−1.39 · n=231.73−1.46 · n=231.89−1.64 · n=232.64−1.76 · n=222.83−1.43 · n=223.24−1.10 · n=223.32−0.90 · n=21KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA—1.68+0.89 · n=231.50+0.74 · n=241.54+0.20 · n=231.93+0.44 · n=231.98+0.44 · n=231.97+0.69 · n=222.28+1.21 · n=222.12+0.87 · n=222.12+0.97 · n=21KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP—2.42+1.93 · n=232.67+2.20 · n=242.55+1.87 · n=233.02+0.15 · n=233.74−1.41 · n=234.95−1.06 · n=224.64−1.23 · n=225.39−2.89 · n=226.25−3.27 · n=21KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY—3.61+3.19 · n=233.90+3.62 · n=243.68+3.32 · n=233.62+2.98 · n=234.24+3.28 · n=234.93+3.84 · n=225.63+4.33 · n=226.58+4.66 · n=226.55+4.86 · n=21KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC—1.85+1.27 · n=231.98+1.41 · n=242.43+1.64 · n=232.73+1.14 · n=233.09+1.46 · n=233.61+1.99 · n=224.69+2.32 · n=225.10+3.37 · n=226.23+3.35 · n=21KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC—4.83+4.59 · n=234.42+3.73 · n=244.12+3.61 · n=234.27+3.43 · n=234.72+3.00 · n=234.86+2.77 · n=224.21+1.89 · n=224.94+0.97 · n=225.12+0.41 · n=21KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD—2.24+1.94 · n=232.93+2.49 · n=243.04+1.57 · n=232.98+0.75 · n=233.35+0.94 · n=233.76+1.01 · n=225.07+1.47 · n=225.71+0.63 · n=225.87−1.13 · n=21KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL—1.67+0.92 · n=231.91+0.91 · n=242.29+1.10 · n=232.41+0.76 · n=232.96+0.66 · n=234.12+1.01 · n=224.61+1.64 · n=225.44+2.40 · n=226.03+2.23 · n=21KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX—1.89−1.48 · n=232.64−2.43 · n=243.15−3.05 · n=233.43−2.73 · n=233.85−2.70 · n=233.57−3.34 · n=224.71−3.08 · n=224.68−2.50 · n=224.74−2.24 · n=21KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN—1.93+1.72 · n=231.95+1.20 · n=241.94+0.78 · n=231.90+0.82 · n=232.35+0.81 · n=232.46+0.80 · n=222.60+1.00 · n=223.26+0.98 · n=223.54+0.96 · n=21KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT—2.50+1.67 · n=232.54+1.39 · n=242.40+1.04 · n=232.42+1.19 · n=232.87+0.50 · n=233.23+0.97 · n=224.30+1.73 · n=223.98+0.85 · n=225.21+0.07 · n=21KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA—1.54+1.13 · n=231.66+1.01 · n=241.91+1.08 · n=231.79+0.90 · n=232.07+1.55 · n=232.71+1.62 · n=222.50+1.59 · n=223.57+1.56 · n=224.09+2.21 · n=21KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO—2.56+2.01 · n=232.58+2.04 · n=242.36+1.77 · n=232.32+1.49 · n=232.10+1.40 · n=232.05+1.58 · n=222.80+1.61 · n=222.84+1.55 · n=223.35+1.61 · n=21KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN—6.06+6.06 · n=235.83+5.81 · n=246.27+6.20 · n=236.23+5.83 · n=236.24+5.69 · n=236.39+5.93 · n=227.11+6.07 · n=227.92+7.58 · n=228.19+7.14 · n=21KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.