CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (GFS init)

aurora_gfs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp GFS initAURO_v100
Window
all available history
Init
12Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.84−2.31 · n=2483.10−2.63 · n=2483.46−2.92 · n=2473.84−3.24 · n=2474.38−3.53 · n=2454.83−3.51 · n=2445.21−3.56 · n=2435.50−3.68 · n=2435.94−3.40 · n=242KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS—3.54−1.65 · n=2473.79−1.91 · n=2474.03−2.27 · n=2464.31−2.56 · n=2464.60−2.71 · n=2445.13−2.60 · n=2435.55−2.60 · n=2435.87−2.58 · n=2436.25−2.35 · n=241KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS—2.90−2.20 · n=2353.25−2.53 · n=2353.63−2.86 · n=2364.11−3.11 · n=2354.83−3.52 · n=2345.46−3.59 · n=2335.82−3.59 · n=2326.56−4.19 · n=2316.89−4.46 · n=231KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA—3.16−2.67 · n=2483.41−2.73 · n=2483.69−2.85 · n=2474.03−3.06 · n=2474.84−3.48 · n=2455.41−3.73 · n=2445.77−3.81 · n=2436.29−3.90 · n=2436.84−3.90 · n=242KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN—3.70−2.48 · n=2484.40−3.30 · n=2494.97−3.75 · n=2485.61−4.22 · n=2466.29−4.27 · n=2456.95−4.53 · n=2447.86−4.82 · n=2448.58−5.25 · n=2439.29−5.72 · n=242KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW—2.93−2.16 · n=2463.52−2.75 · n=2444.02−3.27 · n=2434.48−3.64 · n=2445.02−3.81 · n=2435.66−3.94 · n=2406.15−3.93 · n=2406.77−3.88 · n=2407.29−3.64 · n=238KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR—3.36−2.95 · n=2473.60−3.12 · n=2473.91−3.26 · n=2464.35−3.42 · n=2465.02−3.71 · n=2445.62−4.05 · n=2435.86−4.12 · n=2426.44−4.35 · n=2426.80−4.31 · n=241KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH—2.85−2.02 · n=2493.14−2.37 · n=2493.47−2.72 · n=2483.77−3.00 · n=2484.21−3.17 · n=2464.58−3.02 · n=2454.89−2.92 · n=2445.18−2.95 · n=2445.54−2.73 · n=243KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS—4.23−3.92 · n=2494.68−4.41 · n=2485.07−4.79 · n=2495.38−5.03 · n=2475.74−5.38 · n=2456.29−5.77 · n=2446.88−5.97 · n=2457.30−6.34 · n=2437.72−6.82 · n=241KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX—2.40−1.92 · n=2482.75−2.32 · n=2482.93−2.50 · n=2483.16−2.66 · n=2463.42−2.88 · n=2453.63−3.06 · n=2443.92−3.27 · n=2444.27−3.59 · n=2444.64−3.87 · n=241KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA—2.13−1.42 · n=2452.28−1.60 · n=2452.34−1.61 · n=2452.53−1.71 · n=2452.69−1.86 · n=2432.86−1.81 · n=2423.08−1.60 · n=2413.20−1.51 · n=2413.36−1.42 · n=240KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP—3.05−2.42 · n=2503.46−2.67 · n=2504.02−3.08 · n=2494.71−3.65 · n=2485.27−3.85 · n=2475.92−3.78 · n=2466.64−3.72 · n=2457.14−3.42 · n=2447.88−3.28 · n=243KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY—2.43−1.01 · n=2482.55−1.15 · n=2482.76−1.49 · n=2473.00−1.81 · n=2473.31−2.00 · n=2453.81−2.03 · n=2444.02−1.98 · n=2434.26−1.87 · n=2444.55−1.41 · n=242KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC—2.70−1.93 · n=2492.98−2.10 · n=2483.36−2.32 · n=2473.76−2.41 · n=2464.46−2.75 · n=2455.14−3.08 · n=2445.36−3.20 · n=2435.89−3.35 · n=2426.18−3.35 · n=241KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC—3.09−0.38 · n=2483.44−0.91 · n=2483.96−1.57 · n=2474.47−2.07 · n=2474.94−2.34 · n=2455.76−2.40 · n=2446.35−2.64 · n=2437.23−2.37 · n=2437.89−2.22 · n=242KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD—2.60−1.72 · n=2493.11−2.11 · n=2493.62−2.41 · n=2484.34−2.74 · n=2484.95−3.25 · n=2465.49−3.32 · n=2456.40−3.23 · n=2446.89−3.14 · n=2447.41−2.99 · n=243KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL—3.32−2.92 · n=2493.49−2.97 · n=2493.80−3.08 · n=2484.20−3.26 · n=2484.87−3.53 · n=2465.40−3.77 · n=2455.64−3.88 · n=2446.22−4.05 · n=2446.66−4.07 · n=243KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX—4.39−4.15 · n=2494.94−4.71 · n=2495.48−5.21 · n=2495.85−5.58 · n=2476.24−5.89 · n=2466.65−6.04 · n=2456.92−6.08 · n=2457.29−6.40 · n=2447.57−6.78 · n=242KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN—3.27−2.53 · n=2483.60−2.96 · n=2483.81−3.20 · n=2483.99−3.33 · n=2464.09−3.43 · n=2454.23−3.55 · n=2444.44−3.75 · n=2444.70−3.95 · n=2434.92−4.17 · n=241KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT—3.29−2.60 · n=2503.60−2.86 · n=2503.85−3.19 · n=2494.13−3.41 · n=2484.51−3.61 · n=2475.02−3.51 · n=2465.41−3.49 · n=2455.59−3.47 · n=2445.93−3.25 · n=243KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA—2.52−1.80 · n=2492.58−1.77 · n=2492.74−1.75 · n=2492.95−1.80 · n=2473.19−1.83 · n=2463.77−2.04 · n=2454.26−2.42 · n=2454.48−2.44 · n=2444.65−2.39 · n=242KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO—2.38−1.34 · n=2492.56−1.60 · n=2492.64−1.70 · n=2492.73−1.74 · n=2472.90−1.89 · n=2463.21−2.19 · n=2453.42−2.36 · n=2453.60−2.49 · n=2443.87−2.74 · n=242KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN—2.15−0.30 · n=2452.42−0.41 · n=2452.79−0.53 · n=2433.24−0.67 · n=2434.04−0.93 · n=2414.56−1.22 · n=2404.76−1.40 · n=2395.43−1.53 · n=2396.13−1.50 · n=238KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 5 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—2.86−2.40 · n=2483.18−2.87 · n=2483.63−3.15 · n=2474.03−3.44 · n=2474.45−3.56 · n=2454.90−3.70 · n=2445.51−4.01 · n=2435.68−4.02 · n=2436.07−3.74 · n=242KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS—4.94−4.83 · n=2475.27−5.00 · n=2475.73−5.43 · n=2465.78−5.48 · n=2466.16−5.66 · n=2446.62−5.62 · n=2437.03−5.79 · n=2437.35−5.84 · n=2437.37−5.74 · n=241KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS—2.65−1.85 · n=2353.14−2.29 · n=2353.60−2.69 · n=2364.31−3.00 · n=2355.25−3.58 · n=2345.97−3.45 · n=2336.61−3.58 · n=2327.13−4.36 · n=2317.49−4.58 · n=231KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA—3.38−2.86 · n=2483.68−2.94 · n=2484.10−3.14 · n=2474.39−3.50 · n=2475.40−3.74 · n=2456.06−4.15 · n=2446.26−4.10 · n=2436.79−4.29 · n=2437.42−4.51 · n=242KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN—4.03−3.61 · n=2484.87−4.57 · n=2495.57−5.15 · n=2486.37−5.73 · n=2467.17−5.90 · n=2457.97−6.12 · n=2449.06−6.47 · n=24410.14−7.08 · n=24310.98−7.74 · n=242KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW—4.05−3.90 · n=2464.74−4.55 · n=2445.14−4.99 · n=2435.58−5.35 · n=2446.09−5.53 · n=2436.79−5.73 · n=2407.29−5.79 · n=2407.62−5.72 · n=2407.88−5.59 · n=238KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR—3.74−3.50 · n=2474.00−3.70 · n=2474.50−4.08 · n=2464.96−4.15 · n=2465.76−4.49 · n=2446.52−4.72 · n=2436.66−4.86 · n=2427.11−5.22 · n=2427.66−5.23 · n=241KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH—3.47−3.33 · n=2493.89−3.64 · n=2494.26−3.91 · n=2484.51−4.12 · n=2484.93−4.31 · n=2465.14−4.07 · n=2455.31−4.00 · n=2445.62−4.22 · n=2445.86−4.00 · n=243KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS—4.11−4.03 · n=2494.60−4.47 · n=2485.10−4.85 · n=2495.46−5.12 · n=2475.81−5.50 · n=2456.61−6.01 · n=2447.28−6.17 · n=2457.69−6.55 · n=2437.93−7.07 · n=241KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX—2.59−2.10 · n=2482.91−2.52 · n=2483.09−2.67 · n=2483.33−2.79 · n=2463.64−3.04 · n=2453.84−3.20 · n=2444.33−3.52 · n=2444.77−3.91 · n=2445.25−4.19 · n=241KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA—2.84−2.41 · n=2452.98−2.47 · n=2452.93−2.33 · n=2453.05−2.37 · n=2453.21−2.55 · n=2433.37−2.55 · n=2423.51−2.37 · n=2413.58−2.19 · n=2413.74−2.12 · n=240KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP—3.45−3.03 · n=2504.01−3.52 · n=2504.73−4.08 · n=2495.50−4.65 · n=2486.09−4.96 · n=2476.73−4.79 · n=2467.06−4.77 · n=2457.42−4.37 · n=2448.22−4.40 · n=243KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY—3.37−3.09 · n=2483.51−3.23 · n=2483.81−3.52 · n=2474.08−3.89 · n=2474.48−4.09 · n=2455.04−4.10 · n=2445.05−3.99 · n=2435.13−3.89 · n=2445.37−3.52 · n=242KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC—2.58−2.00 · n=2493.03−2.30 · n=2483.39−2.70 · n=2473.92−2.73 · n=2464.78−3.14 · n=2455.57−3.37 · n=2445.67−3.50 · n=2436.26−3.83 · n=2426.64−3.91 · n=241KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC—3.46−2.75 · n=2483.96−3.38 · n=2484.89−4.10 · n=2475.38−4.62 · n=2476.20−5.03 · n=2457.26−5.23 · n=2447.90−5.49 · n=2438.21−5.22 · n=2438.70−5.24 · n=242KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD—3.16−2.56 · n=2493.76−3.22 · n=2494.29−3.31 · n=2484.98−3.91 · n=2485.78−4.56 · n=2466.04−4.53 · n=2457.20−4.62 · n=2447.53−4.71 · n=2447.79−4.41 · n=243KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL—3.09−2.66 · n=2493.30−2.79 · n=2493.84−3.09 · n=2484.16−3.32 · n=2485.04−3.49 · n=2465.72−3.69 · n=2455.94−3.79 · n=2446.46−4.07 · n=2447.05−4.22 · n=243KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX—4.05−3.98 · n=2494.66−4.50 · n=2495.26−5.02 · n=2495.53−5.35 · n=2475.78−5.53 · n=2466.35−5.74 · n=2456.71−5.79 · n=2457.33−6.23 · n=2447.53−6.71 · n=242KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN—4.38−4.36 · n=2484.82−4.79 · n=2485.06−5.01 · n=2485.25−5.19 · n=2465.30−5.23 · n=2455.49−5.35 · n=2445.85−5.65 · n=2446.23−5.93 · n=2436.42−6.15 · n=241KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT—4.72−4.63 · n=2505.05−4.90 · n=2505.44−5.30 · n=2495.55−5.37 · n=2485.85−5.53 · n=2476.20−5.47 · n=2466.53−5.64 · n=2456.74−5.72 · n=2446.94−5.67 · n=243KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA—3.42−3.09 · n=2493.43−2.97 · n=2493.61−2.90 · n=2493.84−2.84 · n=2474.12−2.98 · n=2464.94−3.30 · n=2455.52−3.89 · n=2455.56−3.87 · n=2446.02−3.89 · n=242KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO—3.35−2.76 · n=2493.67−3.12 · n=2493.75−3.12 · n=2493.88−3.20 · n=2474.11−3.30 · n=2464.73−3.86 · n=2454.88−4.10 · n=2455.26−4.26 · n=2445.52−4.46 · n=242KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN—2.01−0.37 · n=2452.24−0.55 · n=2452.74−0.99 · n=2433.26−0.98 · n=2434.36−1.18 · n=2415.00−1.34 · n=2405.11−1.48 · n=2395.80−1.85 · n=2396.56−1.89 · n=238KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.81−1.28 · n=2481.96−1.42 · n=2482.27−1.71 · n=2472.52−2.01 · n=2473.09−2.41 · n=2453.56−2.27 · n=2443.89−2.19 · n=2434.29−2.30 · n=2434.76−2.05 · n=242KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS—2.96+1.63 · n=2473.10+1.43 · n=2473.03+1.12 · n=2463.19+0.68 · n=2463.48+0.41 · n=2443.94+0.56 · n=2434.26+0.72 · n=2434.89+0.78 · n=2435.37+1.31 · n=241KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS—2.53−2.03 · n=2352.71−2.15 · n=2353.03−2.41 · n=2363.41−2.74 · n=2353.75−2.84 · n=2344.49−3.04 · n=2334.76−2.97 · n=2325.37−3.28 · n=2315.81−3.63 · n=231KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA—2.26−1.74 · n=2482.60−1.89 · n=2482.75−1.88 · n=2473.00−1.98 · n=2473.77−2.50 · n=2454.21−2.59 · n=2444.74−2.72 · n=2435.39−2.60 · n=2435.66−2.52 · n=242KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN—2.78−1.03 · n=2483.32−1.88 · n=2493.91−2.26 · n=2484.12−2.45 · n=2464.71−2.59 · n=2455.13−2.73 · n=2445.93−2.85 · n=2446.25−3.15 · n=2436.61−3.40 · n=242KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW—1.73−0.26 · n=2462.09−0.78 · n=2442.47−1.26 · n=2433.00−1.79 · n=2443.51−1.87 · n=2434.13−1.97 · n=2404.29−1.89 · n=2405.33−1.71 · n=2405.97−1.38 · n=238KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR—2.23−1.64 · n=2472.42−1.77 · n=2472.60−1.75 · n=2463.02−1.86 · n=2463.52−2.10 · n=2444.06−2.46 · n=2434.46−2.48 · n=2425.06−2.49 · n=2425.31−2.49 · n=241KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH—1.75−0.20 · n=2491.90−0.57 · n=2492.09−0.91 · n=2482.45−1.27 · n=2482.90−1.47 · n=2463.39−1.38 · n=2453.77−1.18 · n=2444.23−1.07 · n=2444.66−0.69 · n=243KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS—4.54−3.86 · n=2494.85−4.34 · n=2484.94−4.61 · n=2495.10−4.77 · n=2475.49−5.11 · n=2455.88−5.45 · n=2446.26−5.57 · n=2456.63−5.88 · n=2437.18−6.28 · n=241KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX—2.04−1.65 · n=2482.40−2.10 · n=2482.73−2.41 · n=2482.90−2.56 · n=2463.17−2.81 · n=2453.32−2.98 · n=2443.39−3.08 · n=2443.58−3.23 · n=2443.90−3.51 · n=241KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA—1.69−0.49 · n=2451.71−0.76 · n=2451.89−0.87 · n=2452.08−0.99 · n=2452.27−1.15 · n=2432.45−1.06 · n=2422.75−0.75 · n=2412.95−0.63 · n=2413.13−0.62 · n=240KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP—2.12−1.61 · n=2502.45−1.72 · n=2502.97−2.02 · n=2493.55−2.52 · n=2484.01−2.72 · n=2474.70−2.63 · n=2465.58−2.45 · n=2456.25−2.32 · n=2446.84−1.91 · n=243KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY—1.91+1.06 · n=2481.94+0.93 · n=2481.93+0.54 · n=2472.16+0.32 · n=2472.27+0.05 · n=2452.66+0.04 · n=2442.97+0.10 · n=2433.30+0.14 · n=2443.86+0.68 · n=242KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC—2.30−1.31 · n=2492.47−1.44 · n=2482.74−1.46 · n=2473.08−1.58 · n=2463.59−1.83 · n=2454.19−2.21 · n=2444.49−2.21 · n=2435.05−2.17 · n=2425.19−2.18 · n=241KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC—2.95+2.16 · n=2483.01+1.67 · n=2483.04+1.06 · n=2473.42+0.77 · n=2473.49+0.54 · n=2454.03+0.60 · n=2444.25+0.26 · n=2435.69+0.69 · n=2436.45+0.96 · n=242KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD—1.70−0.70 · n=2492.15−0.90 · n=2492.49−1.20 · n=2483.17−1.25 · n=2483.60−1.57 · n=2464.21−1.85 · n=2454.98−1.50 · n=2445.59−1.20 · n=2446.18−1.05 · n=243KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL—2.52−2.17 · n=2492.55−2.09 · n=2492.84−2.17 · n=2482.98−2.18 · n=2483.63−2.52 · n=2464.23−2.79 · n=2454.53−2.87 · n=2445.17−2.82 · n=2445.41−2.74 · n=243KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX—4.83−4.67 · n=2495.37−5.30 · n=2495.74−5.68 · n=2496.29−6.18 · n=2476.75−6.59 · n=2466.95−6.83 · n=2457.16−6.93 · n=2457.44−7.12 · n=2447.71−7.32 · n=242KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN—2.58−0.48 · n=2482.75−0.96 · n=2482.91−1.25 · n=2483.07−1.38 · n=2463.19−1.51 · n=2453.29−1.65 · n=2443.40−1.79 · n=2443.44−1.78 · n=2433.73−2.05 · n=241KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT—2.27−0.86 · n=2502.49−1.05 · n=2502.66−1.40 · n=2492.94−1.72 · n=2483.37−2.05 · n=2473.93−1.85 · n=2464.31−1.68 · n=2454.75−1.56 · n=2445.20−1.05 · n=243KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA—1.69−0.65 · n=2491.83−0.78 · n=2491.87−0.79 · n=2492.12−0.93 · n=2472.16−0.87 · n=2462.54−0.87 · n=2453.04−1.12 · n=2453.46−1.22 · n=2443.45−1.12 · n=242KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO—1.62−0.14 · n=2491.72−0.38 · n=2491.82−0.58 · n=2491.82−0.62 · n=2471.92−0.73 · n=2462.13−0.87 · n=2452.36−0.96 · n=2452.38−1.08 · n=2442.64−1.28 · n=242KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN—1.76+0.76 · n=2452.10+0.71 · n=2452.39+0.65 · n=2432.63+0.66 · n=2433.29+0.37 · n=2413.72+0.04 · n=2404.06−0.17 · n=2394.74+0.04 · n=2395.41+0.09 · n=238KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—5.69−5.68 · n=2506.14−6.13 · n=2506.44−6.33 · n=2496.87−6.68 · n=2487.07−6.77 · n=2477.44−6.88 · n=2467.77−7.16 · n=2457.99−7.29 · n=2448.26−7.03 · n=243KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS—8.41−8.39 · n=2508.69−8.60 · n=2509.10−9.02 · n=2499.13−9.07 · n=2489.50−9.29 · n=2479.84−9.25 · n=24610.20−9.41 · n=24510.41−9.39 · n=24410.48−9.37 · n=243KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS—4.39−4.21 · n=2494.89−4.57 · n=2495.26−4.84 · n=2485.99−5.26 · n=2486.75−5.71 · n=2467.12−5.57 · n=2457.82−5.84 · n=2448.11−6.40 · n=2438.73−6.78 · n=242KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA—5.73−5.58 · n=2505.93−5.67 · n=2506.31−5.88 · n=2496.65−6.21 · n=2487.50−6.55 · n=2478.11−6.92 · n=2468.26−6.90 · n=2458.82−7.11 · n=2449.13−7.26 · n=243KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN—7.91−7.90 · n=2508.70−8.70 · n=2509.37−9.36 · n=24910.02−9.96 · n=24810.46−10.00 · n=24710.96−10.10 · n=24611.94−10.60 · n=24512.98−11.29 · n=24413.69−11.79 · n=243KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW—7.20−7.15 · n=2507.79−7.71 · n=2508.31−8.22 · n=2498.67−8.56 · n=2489.03−8.75 · n=2479.70−8.95 · n=2469.98−8.97 · n=24510.21−8.91 · n=24410.43−8.73 · n=243KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR—5.86−5.84 · n=2506.08−6.04 · n=2506.54−6.49 · n=2496.79−6.48 · n=2487.52−6.84 · n=2478.14−7.11 · n=2468.23−7.24 · n=2458.71−7.56 · n=2449.14−7.56 · n=243KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH—6.87−6.86 · n=2507.18−7.15 · n=2507.56−7.49 · n=2497.74−7.63 · n=2488.06−7.89 · n=2477.99−7.56 · n=2468.15−7.57 · n=2458.33−7.67 · n=2448.36−7.42 · n=243KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS—5.34−5.30 · n=2505.92−5.86 · n=2506.34−6.24 · n=2496.55−6.42 · n=2486.91−6.82 · n=2477.55−7.21 · n=2468.29−7.51 · n=2458.70−7.88 · n=2448.94−8.39 · n=243KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX—5.14−5.11 · n=2505.61−5.57 · n=2505.70−5.65 · n=2495.89−5.80 · n=2486.24−6.17 · n=2476.36−6.29 · n=2466.79−6.55 · n=2457.24−6.97 · n=2447.55−7.30 · n=243KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA—4.74−4.69 · n=2504.82−4.75 · n=2504.87−4.80 · n=2494.80−4.72 · n=2484.99−4.91 · n=2475.20−4.97 · n=2465.08−4.68 · n=2454.97−4.56 · n=2445.21−4.45 · n=243KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP—5.62−5.52 · n=2506.15−6.02 · n=2506.79−6.48 · n=2497.46−7.08 · n=2488.12−7.46 · n=2478.68−7.29 · n=2468.92−7.27 · n=2459.10−6.90 · n=2449.74−6.95 · n=243KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY—5.82−5.77 · n=2506.01−5.93 · n=2506.29−6.14 · n=2496.57−6.50 · n=2486.86−6.72 · n=2477.19−6.79 · n=2467.10−6.67 · n=2457.14−6.54 · n=2447.13−6.18 · n=243KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC—3.98−3.93 · n=2504.42−4.28 · n=2504.90−4.72 · n=2495.25−4.72 · n=2485.98−5.10 · n=2476.67−5.27 · n=2466.83−5.50 · n=2457.30−5.78 · n=2447.78−5.85 · n=243KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC—6.58−6.42 · n=2497.25−7.07 · n=2508.04−7.74 · n=2488.64−8.31 · n=2479.29−8.77 · n=24610.25−8.92 · n=24510.63−9.20 · n=24410.72−8.80 · n=24311.16−8.89 · n=242KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD—5.08−4.95 · n=2505.71−5.55 · n=2506.04−5.66 · n=2496.71−6.28 · n=2487.56−6.96 · n=2477.77−6.97 · n=2468.80−7.07 · n=2459.08−7.10 · n=2449.27−6.80 · n=243KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL—5.27−5.16 · n=2505.32−5.22 · n=2505.86−5.56 · n=2496.18−5.74 · n=2486.90−6.01 · n=2477.49−6.18 · n=2467.65−6.30 · n=2458.05−6.54 · n=2448.50−6.70 · n=243KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX—5.93−5.93 · n=2506.41−6.38 · n=2507.00−6.94 · n=2497.26−7.22 · n=2487.49−7.39 · n=2477.91−7.64 · n=2468.26−7.70 · n=2458.77−8.13 · n=2448.96−8.53 · n=243KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN—7.00−7.00 · n=2507.39−7.39 · n=2507.63−7.63 · n=2497.78−7.78 · n=2487.86−7.86 · n=2478.02−7.99 · n=2468.31−8.28 · n=2458.67−8.59 · n=2448.79−8.73 · n=243KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT—7.93−7.92 · n=2508.16−8.13 · n=2508.51−8.51 · n=2498.61−8.61 · n=2488.83−8.76 · n=2479.07−8.64 · n=2469.38−8.86 · n=2459.63−9.01 · n=2449.74−8.86 · n=243KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA—4.65−4.53 · n=2504.67−4.49 · n=2504.72−4.39 · n=2494.85−4.31 · n=2485.06−4.46 · n=2475.68−4.73 · n=2466.36−5.35 · n=2456.46−5.39 · n=2446.69−5.41 · n=243KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO—6.05−5.95 · n=2506.33−6.25 · n=2506.39−6.28 · n=2496.53−6.43 · n=2486.68−6.50 · n=2477.19−6.99 · n=2467.50−7.26 · n=2457.67−7.33 · n=2447.91−7.60 · n=243KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN—3.21−2.82 · n=2503.43−2.95 · n=2503.97−3.35 · n=2494.40−3.42 · n=2485.47−3.67 · n=2476.03−3.77 · n=2466.26−3.94 · n=2456.71−4.23 · n=2447.37−4.33 · n=243KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

all available history, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL—1.53+0.49 · n=2491.65+0.33 · n=2491.90+0.08 · n=2492.07−0.22 · n=2472.58−0.61 · n=2463.22−0.51 · n=2453.53−0.46 · n=2443.82−0.57 · n=2434.22−0.37 · n=242KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS—4.62+4.00 · n=2504.63+3.90 · n=2504.45+3.54 · n=2494.42+3.08 · n=2484.53+2.79 · n=2474.95+2.91 · n=2465.19+3.00 · n=2455.68+3.09 · n=2446.12+3.57 · n=243KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS—1.79+0.16 · n=2492.02−0.03 · n=2492.29−0.25 · n=2482.56−0.46 · n=2482.90−0.52 · n=2463.55−0.69 · n=2453.75−0.71 · n=2444.39−0.89 · n=2435.09−1.17 · n=242KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA—1.89+0.52 · n=2502.15+0.40 · n=2502.33+0.44 · n=2492.62+0.36 · n=2483.09−0.13 · n=2473.62−0.31 · n=2464.01−0.41 · n=2454.64−0.27 · n=2445.22−0.05 · n=243KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN—3.15+2.22 · n=2503.06+1.45 · n=2503.31+1.12 · n=2493.50+0.94 · n=2483.95+0.78 · n=2474.17+0.60 · n=2465.14+0.45 · n=2455.42+0.15 · n=2445.61−0.08 · n=243KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW—2.45+1.41 · n=2502.58+0.88 · n=2502.80+0.44 · n=2493.02−0.08 · n=2483.45−0.23 · n=2473.91−0.33 · n=2464.23−0.32 · n=2454.99−0.14 · n=2445.75+0.21 · n=243KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR—2.17+1.16 · n=2502.28+1.00 · n=2502.55+0.99 · n=2492.93+0.96 · n=2483.29+0.73 · n=2473.58+0.27 · n=2463.78+0.29 · n=2454.38+0.34 · n=2444.98+0.40 · n=243KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH—2.39+1.30 · n=2502.46+1.00 · n=2502.47+0.64 · n=2492.58+0.26 · n=2483.03+0.03 · n=2473.44+0.07 · n=2463.83+0.28 · n=2454.30+0.44 · n=2444.74+0.78 · n=243KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS—3.68−2.08 · n=2503.94−2.62 · n=2503.98−2.85 · n=2494.13−2.97 · n=2484.44−3.33 · n=2474.75−3.65 · n=2465.19−3.85 · n=2455.52−4.17 · n=2446.00−4.57 · n=243KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX—1.71−0.09 · n=2501.85−0.54 · n=2502.08−0.86 · n=2492.25−0.99 · n=2482.42−1.20 · n=2472.62−1.41 · n=2462.63−1.51 · n=2452.80−1.71 · n=2443.09−2.02 · n=243KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA—2.05+1.51 · n=2501.95+1.28 · n=2502.00+1.18 · n=2492.14+1.11 · n=2482.19+0.91 · n=2472.37+1.00 · n=2462.59+1.24 · n=2452.89+1.34 · n=2443.02+1.38 · n=243KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP—2.12+0.33 · n=2502.47+0.28 · n=2502.94−0.03 · n=2493.25−0.64 · n=2483.70−0.86 · n=2474.36−0.73 · n=2465.24−0.51 · n=2455.88−0.38 · n=2446.64+0.03 · n=243KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY—3.17+2.94 · n=2503.11+2.83 · n=2502.89+2.43 · n=2492.92+2.22 · n=2482.99+1.94 · n=2473.12+1.94 · n=2463.54+2.02 · n=2453.78+2.11 · n=2444.48+2.62 · n=243KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC—2.48+0.67 · n=2502.57+0.51 · n=2502.91+0.57 · n=2493.19+0.53 · n=2483.45+0.24 · n=2473.82−0.25 · n=2463.95−0.13 · n=2454.55−0.11 · n=2444.98−0.03 · n=243KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC—4.76+4.53 · n=2504.50+4.07 · n=2504.23+3.40 · n=2494.39+3.12 · n=2484.31+2.90 · n=2474.77+2.82 · n=2464.94+2.62 · n=2456.16+3.06 · n=2446.93+3.26 · n=243KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD—2.25+1.53 · n=2502.68+1.43 · n=2502.95+1.17 · n=2493.44+1.01 · n=2483.71+0.64 · n=2474.25+0.48 · n=2465.03+0.83 · n=2455.61+1.17 · n=2446.30+1.23 · n=243KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL—2.02+0.21 · n=2502.23+0.23 · n=2502.40+0.26 · n=2492.50+0.20 · n=2482.92−0.07 · n=2473.41−0.44 · n=2463.73−0.52 · n=2454.51−0.44 · n=2445.10−0.32 · n=243KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX—3.19−2.65 · n=2503.66−3.27 · n=2504.08−3.70 · n=2494.57−4.13 · n=2485.01−4.55 · n=2475.17−4.80 · n=2465.52−4.91 · n=2455.77−5.09 · n=2446.07−5.31 · n=243KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN—2.90+0.99 · n=2503.01+0.54 · n=2503.09+0.29 · n=2493.20+0.14 · n=2483.31+0.01 · n=2473.34−0.16 · n=2463.38−0.27 · n=2453.35−0.29 · n=2443.61−0.62 · n=243KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT—2.48+0.67 · n=2502.71+0.55 · n=2502.69+0.19 · n=2492.90−0.14 · n=2483.26−0.49 · n=2473.78−0.33 · n=2464.20−0.16 · n=2454.56−0.12 · n=2445.09+0.39 · n=243KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA—1.71+0.93 · n=2501.74+0.80 · n=2501.80+0.76 · n=2491.95+0.64 · n=2482.06+0.72 · n=2472.53+0.68 · n=2462.81+0.45 · n=2453.22+0.36 · n=2443.30+0.48 · n=243KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO—1.77+1.13 · n=2501.81+0.90 · n=2501.79+0.71 · n=2491.79+0.64 · n=2481.90+0.55 · n=2472.07+0.40 · n=2462.22+0.29 · n=2452.27+0.18 · n=2442.51−0.03 · n=243KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN—4.09+3.87 · n=2504.11+3.78 · n=2504.21+3.78 · n=2494.40+3.76 · n=2484.64+3.52 · n=2474.58+3.05 · n=2464.72+2.97 · n=2455.36+3.17 · n=2446.05+3.23 · n=243KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.