Aurora (GFS init) (aurora_gfs)
source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 6.56-6.56 · n=2 | 7.31-7.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 8.92-8.92 · n=2 | 9.68-9.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 4.39-4.39 · n=2 | 5.36-5.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 7.05-7.05 · n=2 | 8.79-8.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 7.61-7.61 · n=2 | 5.90-5.90 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 7.21-7.21 · n=2 | 7.39-7.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 4.36-4.36 · n=2 | 3.20-3.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 6.44-6.44 · n=2 | 7.54-7.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 6.44-6.44 · n=2 | 6.07-6.07 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 6.93-6.93 · n=2 | 6.28-6.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 6.63-6.63 · n=2 | 6.92-6.92 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 7.82-7.82 · n=2 | 8.97-8.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 7.46-7.46 · n=2 | 5.57-5.57 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 1.34-1.34 · n=2 | 0.54-0.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 8.24-8.24 · n=2 | 8.94-8.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 4.12-4.12 · n=2 | 8.53-8.53 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 5.33-5.33 · n=2 | 7.15-7.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 13.30-13.30 · n=2 | 15.69-15.69 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 6.71-6.71 · n=2 | 4.48-4.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 7.90-7.90 · n=2 | 8.04-8.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 6.50-6.50 · n=2 | 4.84-4.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 6.92-6.92 · n=2 | 6.19-6.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 1.91-1.91 · n=2 | 2.93-2.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | — | 0.96-0.96 · n=2 | 0.51-0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | — | 5.76+5.76 · n=2 | 4.37+4.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | — | 3.31-3.31 · n=2 | 5.13-5.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | — | 1.24-0.39 · n=2 | 1.06-1.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | — | 3.99+3.99 · n=2 | 1.94+1.94 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | — | 1.15+1.15 · n=2 | 0.29-0.29 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | — | 1.97+1.97 · n=2 | 2.33+2.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | — | 0.74+0.74 · n=2 | 0.48+0.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | — | 7.33-7.33 · n=2 | 8.46-8.46 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | — | 2.72-2.72 · n=2 | 2.93-2.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | — | 2.94+1.06 · n=2 | 2.35-2.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | — | 1.45-0.53 · n=2 | 1.98-1.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | — | 2.59-0.56 · n=2 | 3.10-3.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | — | 0.77+0.77 · n=2 | 0.70+0.70 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | — | 5.88+5.88 · n=2 | 4.10+4.10 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | — | 1.41+1.41 · n=2 | 0.31-0.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | — | 0.79+0.79 · n=2 | 2.04+2.04 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | — | 5.90-5.90 · n=2 | 8.23-8.23 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | — | 2.42-2.42 · n=2 | 3.19-3.19 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | — | 1.54-0.31 · n=2 | 2.60-2.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | — | 0.90+0.80 · n=2 | 0.01-0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | — | 0.54+0.30 · n=2 | 0.36-0.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | — | 5.60+5.60 · n=2 | 6.91+6.91 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · AURO · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences