KAUS — Austin Bergstrom
30.1830, -97.6799 · 148 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIAUS
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 5.27-5.27 · n=30 | 5.34-5.34 · n=29 | 5.30-5.30 · n=28 | 5.12-5.12 · n=27 | 4.87-4.87 · n=26 | 4.66-4.66 · n=25 | 4.74-4.74 · n=24 | 4.82-4.82 · n=23 | 4.67-4.67 · n=22 | 4.92-4.81 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 7.40-7.40 · n=2 | 9.37-9.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 8.59-8.59 · n=3 | 7.75-7.75 · n=2 | 6.62-6.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 5.20-5.20 · n=2 | 5.50-5.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 6.26-6.26 · n=3 | 4.75-4.75 · n=2 | 4.13-4.13 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.64-1.30 · n=30 | 1.47-1.20 · n=29 | 1.55-1.11 · n=28 | 1.51-1.00 · n=27 | 1.87-1.22 · n=26 | 2.10-1.76 · n=25 | 2.82-1.92 · n=24 | 2.77-1.36 · n=23 | 2.31-1.06 · n=22 | 2.67-0.57 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.93-6.93 · n=2 | 8.63-8.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 7.23-7.23 · n=28 | 7.51-7.51 · n=27 | 7.38-7.38 · n=26 | 7.32-7.32 · n=25 | 7.21-7.21 · n=25 | 7.30-7.30 · n=25 | 7.17-7.17 · n=24 | 7.34-7.34 · n=23 | 7.43-7.43 · n=22 | 7.49-7.49 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 4.69-4.59 · n=24 | 4.75-4.75 · n=23 | 4.42-4.42 · n=22 | 4.06-4.06 · n=22 | 3.83-3.83 · n=20 | 3.98-3.98 · n=18 | 4.14-4.14 · n=19 | 3.99-3.99 · n=18 | 4.10-4.10 · n=17 | 4.09-4.09 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.58-3.58 · n=2 | 4.44-4.44 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 5.12-5.12 · n=3 | 5.91-5.91 · n=2 | 6.34-6.34 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.20-0.09 · n=90 | 2.98-0.20 · n=90 | 3.17-0.34 · n=90 | 3.16-0.49 · n=90 | 3.23-0.63 · n=90 | 3.72-0.92 · n=90 | 3.81-1.10 · n=90 | 3.86-1.28 · n=90 | 3.77-1.48 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.60+2.45 · n=30 | 2.94+2.74 · n=29 | 2.95+2.70 · n=28 | 2.97+2.71 · n=27 | 3.14+3.04 · n=26 | 3.26+3.23 · n=25 | 3.52+3.43 · n=24 | 3.42+3.36 · n=23 | 3.54+3.46 · n=22 | 3.27+3.23 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.95+5.95 · n=2 | 4.73+4.73 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 3.05+3.05 · n=3 | 4.98+4.98 · n=2 | 4.68+4.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.48+4.48 · n=2 | 3.71+3.71 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.00+0.50 · n=3 | 4.46+4.46 · n=2 | 4.42+4.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.81+3.42 · n=30 | 3.84+3.38 · n=29 | 3.52+2.89 · n=28 | 3.28+2.83 · n=27 | 3.28+2.68 · n=26 | 3.15+2.62 · n=25 | 3.09+2.74 · n=24 | 3.13+2.30 · n=23 | 2.99+2.21 · n=22 | 2.91+2.23 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 6.49+6.49 · n=2 | 4.84+4.84 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.12+4.12 · n=28 | 4.49+4.45 · n=27 | 4.37+4.30 · n=26 | 4.35+4.32 · n=25 | 4.71+4.71 · n=25 | 4.74+4.74 · n=25 | 4.96+4.96 · n=24 | 4.93+4.93 · n=23 | 4.77+4.76 · n=22 | 4.54+4.54 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.70+3.67 · n=24 | 4.12+4.05 · n=23 | 4.67+4.47 · n=22 | 4.24+4.04 · n=22 | 4.67+4.62 · n=20 | 5.04+4.95 · n=18 | 5.14+5.09 · n=19 | 5.50+5.50 · n=18 | 5.85+5.80 · n=17 | 5.44+5.44 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 5.39+5.39 · n=2 | 4.55+4.55 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.49+3.49 · n=3 | 3.71+3.71 · n=2 | 2.67+2.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.36-0.02 · n=90 | 3.04-0.04 · n=90 | 3.09-0.09 · n=90 | 2.93-0.16 · n=90 | 3.09-0.29 · n=90 | 3.16-0.36 · n=90 | 3.29-0.47 · n=90 | 3.37-0.52 · n=90 | 3.54-0.61 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 5.34-5.34 · n=29 | 9.37-9.37 · n=1 | 7.75-7.75 · n=2 | 5.50-5.50 · n=1 | 4.75-4.75 · n=2 | 1.47-1.20 · n=29 | 8.63-8.63 · n=1 | 7.51-7.51 · n=27 | 4.75-4.75 · n=23 | 4.44-4.44 · n=1 | 5.91-5.91 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8.68-8.68 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 100 | 72 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 100 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 102 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 104 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 103 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 103 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 104 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 105 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 107 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 104 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 103 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 102 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 102 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 104 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 102 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 103 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 98 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 102 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 102 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 101 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 99 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 100 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 99 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 100 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 101 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 100 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 101 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 102 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 100 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 96 | 76 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences