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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.66 [3.74, 5.60]1.32-4.66 [-5.60, -3.74]4.97 [3.96, 5.90]0% [0%, 0%]0%20%-1.24+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.66 [3.61, 5.83]1.32-4.66 [-5.83, -3.61]4.97 [3.78, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%20%-1.24+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.66 [3.29, 5.76]1.32-4.66 [-5.76, -3.29]4.97 [3.43, 6.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%20%-1.24+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.66 [3.51, 5.75]1.32-4.66 [-5.75, -3.51]4.97 [3.69, 6.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%20%-1.24+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC4.84 [3.89, 5.78]1.36-4.84 [-5.78, -3.89]5.14 [4.11, 6.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%-1.33+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC4.84 [3.75, 5.99]1.36-4.84 [-5.99, -3.75]5.14 [3.92, 6.27]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%-1.33+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC4.84 [3.46, 5.96]1.36-4.84 [-5.96, -3.46]5.14 [3.59, 6.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%-1.33+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC4.84 [3.69, 5.95]1.36-4.84 [-5.95, -3.69]5.14 [3.83, 6.22]0% [0%, 0%]0%16%-1.33+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.17 [4.35, 5.88]1.28-5.17 [-5.88, -4.35]5.41 [4.67, 6.06]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.43+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.17 [4.20, 6.07]1.28-5.17 [-6.07, -4.20]5.41 [4.53, 6.22]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.43+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.17 [4.09, 6.01]1.28-5.17 [-6.01, -4.09]5.41 [4.44, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.43+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.17 [4.16, 5.99]1.28-5.17 [-5.99, -4.16]5.41 [4.46, 6.18]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.43+0.412026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC5.33 [4.48, 6.05]1.26-5.33 [-6.05, -4.48]5.57 [4.80, 6.22]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.51+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC5.33 [4.32, 6.24]1.26-5.33 [-6.24, -4.32]5.57 [4.66, 6.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.51+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC5.33 [4.22, 6.19]1.26-5.33 [-6.19, -4.22]5.57 [4.53, 6.36]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.51+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC5.33 [4.29, 6.15]1.26-5.33 [-6.15, -4.29]5.57 [4.57, 6.35]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.51+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.26 [2.24, 4.11]1.50+3.23 [2.16, 4.11]3.73 [2.86, 4.38]16% [0%, 40%]28%44%-0.06+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.26 [2.20, 4.16]1.50+3.23 [2.13, 4.16]3.73 [2.84, 4.41]16% [0%, 41%]28%44%-0.06+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.26 [2.13, 4.22]1.50+3.23 [2.05, 4.22]3.73 [2.78, 4.45]16% [0%, 43%]28%44%-0.06+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.26 [2.13, 4.22]1.50+3.23 [2.05, 4.22]3.73 [2.74, 4.47]16% [0%, 43%]28%44%-0.06+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.07 [2.04, 3.94]1.51+3.02 [1.91, 3.94]3.56 [2.70, 4.20]16% [0%, 40%]28%44%+0.00+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.07 [1.99, 3.98]1.51+3.02 [1.89, 3.98]3.56 [2.66, 4.26]16% [0%, 41%]28%44%+0.00+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.07 [1.94, 4.05]1.51+3.02 [1.80, 4.05]3.56 [2.60, 4.30]16% [0%, 43%]28%44%+0.00+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC3.07 [1.93, 4.05]1.51+3.02 [1.81, 4.05]3.56 [2.58, 4.30]16% [0%, 43%]28%44%+0.00+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.08 [2.15, 3.88]1.53+2.95 [1.78, 3.88]3.52 [2.71, 4.12]12% [0%, 32%]29%46%+0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.08 [2.11, 3.90]1.53+2.95 [1.75, 3.90]3.52 [2.69, 4.15]12% [0%, 32%]29%46%+0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.08 [2.02, 3.90]1.53+2.95 [1.63, 3.90]3.52 [2.61, 4.17]12% [0%, 33%]29%46%+0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.08 [2.02, 3.94]1.53+2.95 [1.63, 3.94]3.52 [2.60, 4.19]12% [0%, 33%]29%46%+0.04+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.94 [2.03, 3.70]1.54+2.75 [1.54, 3.70]3.38 [2.60, 3.96]17% [0%, 42%]29%50%+0.08+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.94 [2.01, 3.73]1.54+2.75 [1.52, 3.73]3.38 [2.55, 3.99]17% [0%, 42%]29%50%+0.08+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.94 [1.91, 3.75]1.54+2.75 [1.38, 3.75]3.38 [2.49, 4.02]17% [0%, 44%]29%50%+0.08+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.94 [1.90, 3.76]1.54+2.75 [1.40, 3.76]3.38 [2.47, 4.03]17% [0%, 44%]29%50%+0.08+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -4.77 °F2026-08-07: -8.73 °F2026-08-08: -6.9 °F2026-08-09: -7.82 °F2026-08-10: -3.89 °F2026-08-11: -3.95 °F2026-08-12: -4.13 °F2026-08-13: -4.1 °F2026-08-14: -2.62 °F2026-08-15: -5.38 °F2026-08-16: -4.67 °F2026-08-17: -6.05 °F2026-08-18: -3.31 °F2026-08-19: -4.63 °F2026-08-20: -4.3 °F2026-08-21: -5.62 °F2026-08-22: -7.89 °F2026-08-23: -4.99 °F2026-08-24: -5 °F2026-08-25: -3.51 °F2026-08-26: -2.03 °F2026-08-27: -4 °F2026-08-28: -2.9 °F2026-08-29: -2.72 °F2026-08-30: -2.67 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.67
2026-08-29-2.72
2026-08-28-2.90
2026-08-27-4.00
2026-08-26-2.03
2026-08-25-3.51
2026-08-24-5.00
2026-08-23-4.99
2026-08-22-7.89
2026-08-21-5.62
2026-08-20-4.30
2026-08-19-4.63
2026-08-18-3.31
2026-08-17-6.05
2026-08-16-4.67
2026-08-15-5.38
2026-08-14-2.62
2026-08-13-4.10
2026-08-12-4.13
2026-08-11-3.95
2026-08-10-3.89
2026-08-09-7.82
2026-08-08-6.90
2026-08-07-8.73
2026-08-06-4.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 8 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.3 · P90 |e| 7.45 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.008
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08254.66 -4.66

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +2.56 [-0.00, 3.87] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.64 [-4.07, -0.17] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.28 [-0.53, 1.08] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 +2.58 [1.10, 3.93] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence