Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KAUS · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.10 [1.01, 3.49]2.01-1.76 [-3.35, -0.45]3.52 [1.32, 5.53]48% [23%, 67%]60%76%-0.01+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.10 [0.97, 3.94]2.01-1.76 [-3.90, -0.42]3.52 [1.23, 5.94]48% [17%, 67%]60%76%-0.01+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.10 [0.96, 3.84]2.01-1.76 [-3.82, -0.38]3.52 [1.22, 5.80]48% [17%, 71%]60%76%-0.01+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.10 [0.96, 3.86]2.01-1.76 [-3.81, -0.35]3.52 [1.23, 5.74]48% [17%, 71%]60%76%-0.01+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.05 [0.93, 3.54]2.16-1.53 [-3.32, -0.15]3.42 [1.31, 5.27]56% [30%, 75%]64%76%+0.01-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.05 [0.87, 4.04]2.16-1.53 [-3.86, -0.10]3.42 [1.18, 5.64]56% [24%, 76%]64%76%+0.01-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.05 [0.80, 4.04]2.16-1.53 [-4.00, -0.05]3.42 [1.05, 5.50]56% [22%, 79%]64%76%+0.01-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC2.05 [0.82, 4.03]2.16-1.53 [-3.93, -0.07]3.42 [1.06, 5.52]56% [24%, 76%]64%76%+0.01-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC1.67 [1.02, 2.63]1.69-1.20 [-2.31, -0.48]2.33 [1.51, 3.16]56% [29%, 73%]64%76%+0.20+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC1.67 [1.00, 2.86]1.69-1.20 [-2.49, -0.40]2.33 [1.46, 3.28]56% [17%, 76%]64%76%+0.20+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC1.67 [0.95, 3.04]1.69-1.20 [-2.61, -0.38]2.33 [1.39, 3.36]56% [14%, 76%]64%76%+0.20+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 1 QC1.67 [0.94, 3.01]1.69-1.20 [-2.62, -0.39]2.33 [1.37, 3.37]56% [14%, 75%]64%76%+0.20+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC1.63 [1.05, 2.58]1.72-1.02 [-2.19, -0.27]2.29 [1.59, 3.12]56% [29%, 73%]64%84%+0.22+0.192026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC1.63 [0.98, 2.78]1.72-1.02 [-2.43, -0.23]2.29 [1.49, 3.29]56% [17%, 76%]64%84%+0.22+0.192026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 1 QC1.63 [0.95, 2.85]1.72-1.02 [-2.53, -0.19]2.29 [1.45, 3.24]56% [14%, 76%]64%84%+0.22+0.192026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 1 QC1.63 [0.95, 2.96]1.72-1.02 [-2.58, -0.22]2.29 [1.41, 3.30]56% [14%, 75%]64%84%+0.22+0.192026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.15 [2.26, 4.07]2.48+2.62 [1.10, 4.07]3.97 [2.85, 4.89]24% [10%, 36%]44%56%-0.02+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.15 [2.21, 4.13]2.48+2.62 [1.01, 4.13]3.97 [2.71, 4.91]24% [9%, 37%]44%56%-0.02+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.15 [2.17, 4.32]2.48+2.62 [0.95, 4.32]3.97 [2.65, 5.17]24% [8%, 36%]44%56%-0.02+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.15 [2.15, 4.29]2.48+2.62 [0.85, 4.25]3.97 [2.61, 5.05]24% [5%, 36%]44%56%-0.02+0.202026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.96 [2.68, 5.21]2.59+3.64 [1.98, 5.21]4.82 [3.40, 5.86]8% [0%, 20%]36%48%-0.28+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.96 [2.55, 5.21]2.59+3.64 [1.82, 5.21]4.82 [3.29, 5.91]8% [0%, 21%]36%48%-0.28+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.96 [2.50, 5.50]2.59+3.64 [1.77, 5.50]4.82 [3.20, 6.19]8% [0%, 22%]36%48%-0.28+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC3.96 [2.47, 5.40]2.59+3.64 [1.72, 5.40]4.82 [3.23, 6.09]8% [0%, 22%]36%48%-0.28+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.23 [2.14, 4.46]2.53+2.80 [1.09, 4.44]4.14 [2.90, 5.25]28% [5%, 50%]44%56%-0.05+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.23 [2.05, 4.67]2.53+2.80 [1.03, 4.67]4.14 [2.79, 5.35]28% [0%, 53%]44%56%-0.05+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.23 [1.99, 4.91]2.53+2.80 [0.95, 4.91]4.14 [2.70, 5.59]28% [0%, 53%]44%56%-0.05+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.23 [1.97, 4.76]2.53+2.80 [0.93, 4.76]4.14 [2.68, 5.47]28% [0%, 55%]44%56%-0.05+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC4.14 [2.62, 5.68]2.60+3.90 [1.97, 5.68]5.06 [3.59, 6.30]12% [0%, 28%]24%40%-0.35+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC4.14 [2.47, 5.91]2.60+3.90 [1.90, 5.91]5.06 [3.42, 6.46]12% [0%, 29%]24%40%-0.35+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 1 QC4.14 [2.42, 6.15]2.60+3.90 [1.82, 6.15]5.06 [3.37, 6.64]12% [0%, 30%]24%40%-0.35+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 1 QC4.14 [2.41, 5.96]2.60+3.90 [1.79, 5.96]5.06 [3.35, 6.52]12% [0%, 30%]24%40%-0.35+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -3.46 °F2026-08-07: -4.42 °F2026-08-08: -3.18 °F2026-08-09: -4.2 °F2026-08-10: -1.04 °F2026-08-11: +0.69 °F2026-08-12: +0.04 °F2026-08-13: -0.7 °F2026-08-14: +2.57 °F2026-08-15: -1.32 °F2026-08-16: -0.46 °F2026-08-17: -0.83 °F2026-08-18: +0.73 °F2026-08-19: +0.12 °F2026-08-20: -0.69 °F2026-08-21: -2.06 °F2026-08-22: -2.17 °F2026-08-23: -0.15 °F2026-08-24: -0.6 °F2026-08-25: -1.19 °F2026-08-26: -0.37 °F2026-08-27: -4.46 °F2026-08-28: -14.12 °F2026-08-29: -2.87 °F2026-08-30: +0.17 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.17
2026-08-29-2.87
2026-08-28-14.12
2026-08-27-4.46
2026-08-26-0.37
2026-08-25-1.19
2026-08-24-0.60
2026-08-23-0.15
2026-08-22-2.17
2026-08-21-2.06
2026-08-20-0.69
2026-08-19+0.12
2026-08-18+0.73
2026-08-17-0.83
2026-08-16-0.46
2026-08-15-1.32
2026-08-14+2.57
2026-08-13-0.70
2026-08-12+0.04
2026-08-11+0.69
2026-08-10-1.04
2026-08-09-4.20
2026-08-08-3.18
2026-08-07-4.42
2026-08-06-3.46

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 10 days0 to 2 °F: 5 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.04 · P90 |e| 4.33 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.0010
+0.00+2.005
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08252.10 -1.76

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -2.56 [-3.87, 0.00] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -5.20 [-7.38, -2.24] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -1.92 [-3.38, 0.38] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.02 [-0.99, 1.44] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence