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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.98 [3.64, 4.47]0.83-3.98 [-4.47, -3.64]4.10 [3.73, 4.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%22%-0.67+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.98 [3.60, 4.63]0.83-3.98 [-4.63, -3.60]4.10 [3.67, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]0%22%-0.67+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.98 [3.55, 4.65]0.83-3.98 [-4.65, -3.55]4.10 [3.64, 4.74]0% [0%, 0%]0%22%-0.67+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.98 [3.51, 4.66]0.83-3.98 [-4.66, -3.51]4.10 [3.60, 4.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%22%-0.67+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.66 [3.39, 4.05]0.85-3.66 [-4.05, -3.39]3.79 [3.50, 4.17]0% [0%, 0%]6%33%-0.53+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.66 [3.34, 4.14]0.85-3.66 [-4.14, -3.34]3.79 [3.48, 4.27]0% [0%, 0%]6%33%-0.53+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.66 [3.31, 4.18]0.85-3.66 [-4.18, -3.31]3.79 [3.45, 4.30]0% [0%, 0%]6%33%-0.53+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.66 [3.28, 4.15]0.85-3.66 [-4.15, -3.28]3.79 [3.44, 4.30]0% [0%, 0%]6%33%-0.53+0.642026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.35 [3.43, 5.49]1.70-4.35 [-5.49, -3.43]4.95 [3.71, 6.31]5% [0%, 12%]10%25%-0.85+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.35 [3.22, 5.67]1.70-4.35 [-5.67, -3.22]4.95 [3.52, 6.54]5% [0%, 12%]10%25%-0.85+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.35 [3.10, 5.74]1.70-4.35 [-5.74, -3.10]4.95 [3.43, 6.46]5% [0%, 13%]10%25%-0.85+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.35 [3.10, 5.53]1.70-4.35 [-5.53, -3.10]4.95 [3.40, 6.35]5% [0%, 14%]10%25%-0.85+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC4.06 [3.06, 5.29]1.75-4.06 [-5.29, -3.06]4.78 [3.37, 6.32]5% [0%, 12%]15%30%-0.73+0.232026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC4.06 [2.86, 5.45]1.75-4.06 [-5.45, -2.86]4.78 [3.19, 6.55]5% [0%, 12%]15%30%-0.73+0.232026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC4.06 [2.73, 5.56]1.75-4.06 [-5.56, -2.73]4.78 [3.10, 6.40]5% [0%, 13%]15%30%-0.73+0.232026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC4.06 [2.76, 5.32]1.75-4.06 [-5.32, -2.76]4.78 [3.09, 6.37]5% [0%, 14%]15%30%-0.73+0.232026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC5.04 [2.67, 6.43]2.14+4.95 [2.40, 6.43]5.62 [2.98, 6.78]6% [0%, 18%]11%22%-0.56+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC5.04 [2.27, 6.55]2.14+4.95 [1.95, 6.55]5.62 [2.61, 6.87]6% [0%, 22%]11%22%-0.56+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC5.04 [2.24, 6.60]2.14+4.95 [1.90, 6.60]5.62 [2.57, 6.90]6% [0%, 22%]11%22%-0.56+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC5.04 [2.24, 6.62]2.14+4.95 [1.92, 6.62]5.62 [2.59, 6.94]6% [0%, 22%]11%22%-0.56+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC5.21 [2.82, 6.59]2.18+5.10 [2.51, 6.59]5.78 [3.15, 6.95]6% [0%, 18%]11%17%-0.62+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC5.21 [2.42, 6.71]2.18+5.10 [2.08, 6.71]5.78 [2.78, 7.04]6% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.62+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC5.21 [2.42, 6.75]2.18+5.10 [2.00, 6.75]5.78 [2.77, 7.07]6% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.62+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC5.21 [2.38, 6.80]2.18+5.10 [2.02, 6.80]5.78 [2.74, 7.14]6% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.62+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.62 [2.31, 6.29]2.47+4.36 [1.67, 6.29]5.40 [2.75, 6.85]5% [0%, 14%]20%35%-0.36+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.62 [2.03, 6.39]2.47+4.36 [1.30, 6.39]5.40 [2.34, 6.94]5% [0%, 13%]20%35%-0.36+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.62 [2.03, 6.50]2.47+4.36 [1.32, 6.50]5.40 [2.33, 7.10]5% [0%, 14%]20%35%-0.36+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.62 [1.98, 6.50]2.47+4.36 [1.20, 6.50]5.40 [2.19, 7.10]5% [0%, 14%]20%35%-0.36+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC4.72 [2.33, 6.47]2.51+4.49 [1.69, 6.47]5.53 [2.79, 7.04]10% [0%, 27%]20%35%-0.39+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC4.72 [2.01, 6.58]2.51+4.49 [1.39, 6.58]5.53 [2.32, 7.12]10% [0%, 26%]20%35%-0.39+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC4.72 [2.01, 6.67]2.51+4.49 [1.41, 6.67]5.53 [2.31, 7.29]10% [0%, 27%]20%35%-0.39+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC4.72 [1.98, 6.70]2.51+4.49 [1.25, 6.70]5.53 [2.20, 7.29]10% [0%, 29%]20%35%-0.39+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -4.8 °F2026-08-12: -4.02 °F2026-08-13: -5.3 °F2026-08-14: -2.83 °F2026-08-16: -4.76 °F2026-08-17: -6.24 °F2026-08-19: -2.81 °F2026-08-20: -3.07 °F2026-08-21: -5.1 °F2026-08-22: -4.25 °F2026-08-23: -4.14 °F2026-08-24: -3.58 °F2026-08-25: -3.17 °F2026-08-26: -3.63 °F2026-08-27: -2.88 °F2026-08-28: -4.18 °F2026-08-29: -4.49 °F2026-08-30: -2.34 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.34
2026-08-29-4.49
2026-08-28-4.18
2026-08-27-2.88
2026-08-26-3.63
2026-08-25-3.17
2026-08-24-3.58
2026-08-23-4.14
2026-08-22-4.25
2026-08-21-5.10
2026-08-20-3.07
2026-08-19-2.81
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-6.24
2026-08-16-4.76
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-2.83
2026-08-13-5.30
2026-08-12-4.02
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-4.80

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.08 · P90 |e| 5.16 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.98 -3.98

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.28 [-1.08, 0.53] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.92 [-0.38, 3.38] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -3.68 [-5.06, -1.24] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.59 [0.12, 2.22] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence