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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 0

KAUS · aurora_ifs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d3 1 QC8.59 [6.57, 9.61]1.35-8.59 [-9.61, -6.57]8.73 [6.57, 9.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d3 1 QC8.59 [6.57, 9.61]1.35-8.59 [-9.61, -6.57]8.73 [6.57, 9.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d3 1 QC8.59 [6.57, 9.61]1.35-8.59 [-9.61, -6.57]8.73 [6.57, 9.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall3 1 QC8.59 [6.57, 9.61]1.35-8.59 [-9.61, -6.57]8.73 [6.57, 9.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d3 1 QC8.62 [6.52, 9.66]1.40-8.62 [-9.66, -6.52]8.76 [6.52, 9.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d3 1 QC8.62 [6.52, 9.66]1.40-8.62 [-9.66, -6.52]8.76 [6.52, 9.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d3 1 QC8.62 [6.52, 9.66]1.40-8.62 [-9.66, -6.52]8.76 [6.52, 9.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall3 1 QC8.62 [6.52, 9.66]1.40-8.62 [-9.66, -6.52]8.76 [6.52, 9.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d3 1 QC3.05 [1.87, 4.71]1.10+3.05 [1.87, 4.71]3.28 [1.87, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d3 1 QC3.05 [1.87, 4.71]1.10+3.05 [1.87, 4.71]3.28 [1.87, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d3 1 QC3.05 [1.87, 4.71]1.10+3.05 [1.87, 4.71]3.28 [1.87, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall3 1 QC3.05 [1.87, 4.71]1.10+3.05 [1.87, 4.71]3.28 [1.87, 4.71]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d3 1 QC2.85 [1.62, 4.38]1.02+2.85 [1.62, 4.38]3.07 [1.62, 4.38]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d3 1 QC2.85 [1.62, 4.38]1.02+2.85 [1.62, 4.38]3.07 [1.62, 4.38]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d3 1 QC2.85 [1.62, 4.38]1.02+2.85 [1.62, 4.38]3.07 [1.62, 4.38]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall3 1 QC2.85 [1.62, 4.38]1.02+2.85 [1.62, 4.38]3.07 [1.62, 4.38]0% [0%, 0%]33%67%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KAUS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-28: -8.83 °F2026-08-29: -10.38 °F2026-08-30: -6.57 °F2026-08-282026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (3 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.57
2026-08-29-10.38
2026-08-28-8.83

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KAUS, lead day 0-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 8.83 · P90 |e| 10.07 °F-200+20 °Fn = 3 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.000
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0838.59 -8.59

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 3 +3.82 [2.61, 4.42] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 +1.07 [-0.15, 2.30] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +3.28 [1.98, 4.58] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 +2.34 [1.50, 2.75] yes
NCEP GFS 3 +5.41 [4.27, 5.98] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 +1.55 [-0.18, 3.28] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 3 -0.39 [-0.84, -0.16] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 3 +3.35 [2.10, 3.97] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +4.90 [2.61, 7.19] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +3.47 [1.87, 4.28] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aurora_ifs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aurora_ifs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aurora_ifs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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