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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.69 [3.97, 5.42]1.24-4.59 [-5.37, -3.70]4.89 [4.18, 5.56]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.69 [3.79, 5.48]1.24-4.59 [-5.38, -3.21]4.89 [4.05, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.69 [3.75, 5.46]1.24-4.59 [-5.44, -3.37]4.89 [4.02, 5.58]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.69 [3.52, 5.48]1.24-4.59 [-5.44, -2.84]4.89 [3.88, 5.61]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.30 [3.61, 5.02]1.31-4.17 [-4.97, -3.33]4.52 [3.84, 5.21]0% [0%, 0%]4%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.30 [3.46, 5.20]1.31-4.17 [-5.08, -2.93]4.52 [3.70, 5.34]0% [0%, 0%]4%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.30 [3.38, 5.14]1.31-4.17 [-5.11, -2.92]4.52 [3.57, 5.29]0% [0%, 0%]4%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC4.30 [3.29, 5.14]1.31-4.17 [-5.09, -2.50]4.52 [3.55, 5.29]0% [0%, 0%]4%21%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.70 [2.43, 4.91]1.80+3.67 [2.36, 4.91]4.29 [3.00, 5.31]8% [0%, 21%]29%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.70 [2.21, 4.93]1.80+3.67 [2.15, 4.93]4.29 [2.78, 5.31]8% [0%, 22%]29%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.70 [2.16, 4.93]1.80+3.67 [2.09, 4.93]4.29 [2.71, 5.38]8% [0%, 22%]29%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.70 [2.10, 4.98]1.80+3.67 [2.05, 4.98]4.29 [2.68, 5.41]8% [0%, 23%]29%38%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.81 [2.46, 5.14]1.92+3.79 [2.41, 5.14]4.44 [3.01, 5.60]8% [0%, 21%]25%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.81 [2.31, 5.13]1.92+3.79 [2.27, 5.11]4.44 [2.78, 5.57]8% [0%, 22%]25%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.81 [2.21, 5.18]1.92+3.79 [2.17, 5.18]4.44 [2.78, 5.63]8% [0%, 22%]25%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC3.81 [2.19, 5.22]1.92+3.79 [2.15, 5.22]4.44 [2.67, 5.63]8% [0%, 23%]25%42%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: +1.18 °F2026-08-08: -5.4 °F2026-08-09: -6.95 °F2026-08-10: -6.08 °F2026-08-11: -6.47 °F2026-08-12: -4.35 °F2026-08-13: -5.09 °F2026-08-14: -3.95 °F2026-08-15: -6.76 °F2026-08-16: -5.21 °F2026-08-17: -5.76 °F2026-08-18: -4.76 °F2026-08-19: -3.17 °F2026-08-20: -4.41 °F2026-08-21: -4.3 °F2026-08-22: -6.16 °F2026-08-23: -2.78 °F2026-08-24: -3.41 °F2026-08-25: -3.71 °F2026-08-26: -3.51 °F2026-08-27: -3.33 °F2026-08-28: -5 °F2026-08-29: -6.28 °F2026-08-30: -4.47 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.47
2026-08-29-6.28
2026-08-28-5.00
2026-08-27-3.33
2026-08-26-3.51
2026-08-25-3.71
2026-08-24-3.41
2026-08-23-2.78
2026-08-22-6.16
2026-08-21-4.30
2026-08-20-4.41
2026-08-19-3.17
2026-08-18-4.76
2026-08-17-5.76
2026-08-16-5.21
2026-08-15-6.76
2026-08-14-3.95
2026-08-13-5.09
2026-08-12-4.35
2026-08-11-6.47
2026-08-10-6.08
2026-08-09-6.95
2026-08-08-5.40
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01+1.18

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 6 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.61 · P90 |e| 6.41 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.006
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08244.69 -4.59

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -0.27 [-0.90, 0.16] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -2.03 [-2.26, -1.81] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -3.35 [-3.97, -2.10] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.18 [-0.12, 0.48] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.01 [-2.32, 0.19] no
NCEP GFS 24 +3.04 [1.50, 3.92] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.56 [-2.28, -0.83] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -2.34 [-2.99, -1.71] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.79 [0.51, 3.08] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +0.13 [-0.24, 0.31] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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