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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 0

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC5.27 [4.71, 5.84]1.27-5.27 [-5.84, -4.71]5.48 [4.92, 6.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC5.27 [4.71, 5.94]1.27-5.27 [-5.94, -4.71]5.48 [4.89, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC5.27 [4.67, 5.92]1.27-5.27 [-5.92, -4.67]5.48 [4.89, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC5.27 [4.60, 5.92]1.27-5.27 [-5.92, -4.60]5.48 [4.81, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC5.28 [4.73, 5.84]1.24-5.28 [-5.84, -4.73]5.47 [4.92, 6.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC5.28 [4.71, 5.96]1.24-5.28 [-5.96, -4.71]5.47 [4.88, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC5.28 [4.68, 5.92]1.24-5.28 [-5.92, -4.68]5.47 [4.88, 6.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC5.28 [4.63, 5.92]1.24-5.28 [-5.92, -4.63]5.47 [4.81, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC2.60 [1.91, 3.21]1.46+2.45 [1.73, 3.12]3.09 [2.35, 3.70]20% [7%, 40%]40%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC2.60 [1.89, 3.22]1.46+2.45 [1.67, 3.15]3.09 [2.32, 3.71]20% [4%, 41%]40%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.60 [1.84, 3.25]1.46+2.45 [1.61, 3.21]3.09 [2.24, 3.75]20% [0%, 42%]40%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.60 [1.84, 3.27]1.46+2.45 [1.61, 3.25]3.09 [2.27, 3.75]20% [4%, 42%]40%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC2.51 [1.81, 3.16]1.49+2.32 [1.53, 3.06]3.02 [2.25, 3.69]20% [7%, 40%]40%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC2.51 [1.77, 3.16]1.49+2.32 [1.47, 3.08]3.02 [2.19, 3.71]20% [4%, 41%]40%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC2.51 [1.73, 3.19]1.49+2.32 [1.40, 3.16]3.02 [2.12, 3.73]20% [0%, 42%]40%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC2.51 [1.73, 3.22]1.49+2.32 [1.42, 3.20]3.02 [2.15, 3.77]20% [4%, 42%]40%67%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.92 °F2026-08-02: -8.21 °F2026-08-03: -6.64 °F2026-08-04: -6.6 °F2026-08-05: -5.14 °F2026-08-06: -6.27 °F2026-08-07: -6.38 °F2026-08-08: -5.36 °F2026-08-09: -7.6 °F2026-08-10: -6.62 °F2026-08-11: -4.59 °F2026-08-12: -3.95 °F2026-08-13: -4.9 °F2026-08-14: -5.04 °F2026-08-15: -6.14 °F2026-08-16: -5.29 °F2026-08-17: -7.05 °F2026-08-18: -3.6 °F2026-08-19: -3.48 °F2026-08-20: -3.69 °F2026-08-21: -4.62 °F2026-08-22: -6.39 °F2026-08-23: -3.36 °F2026-08-24: -4.46 °F2026-08-25: -4.35 °F2026-08-26: -3.01 °F2026-08-27: -8.18 °F2026-08-28: -6.22 °F2026-08-29: -4.18 °F2026-08-30: -3.94 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.94
2026-08-29-4.18
2026-08-28-6.22
2026-08-27-8.18
2026-08-26-3.01
2026-08-25-4.35
2026-08-24-4.46
2026-08-23-3.36
2026-08-22-6.39
2026-08-21-4.62
2026-08-20-3.69
2026-08-19-3.48
2026-08-18-3.60
2026-08-17-7.05
2026-08-16-5.29
2026-08-15-6.14
2026-08-14-5.04
2026-08-13-4.90
2026-08-12-3.95
2026-08-11-4.59
2026-08-10-6.62
2026-08-09-7.60
2026-08-08-5.36
2026-08-07-6.38
2026-08-06-6.27
2026-08-05-5.14
2026-08-04-6.60
2026-08-03-6.64
2026-08-02-8.21
2026-08-01-2.92

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 8 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.09 · P90 |e| 7.11 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.008
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08305.27 -5.27

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -3.35 [-3.91, -2.79] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -3.82 [-4.42, -2.61] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -1.14 [-1.62, -0.66] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -1.48 [-2.05, -0.34] yes
NCEP GFS 30 +3.63 [2.90, 4.28] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.87 [-2.93, -2.82] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -1.98 [-2.86, -1.13] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 +0.27 [-0.16, 0.90] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +0.48 [-0.03, 0.98] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -0.34 [-1.08, 1.14] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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