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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 0

KAUS · gfs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.64 [1.02, 2.16]1.41-1.30 [-1.88, -0.72]2.12 [1.52, 2.51]43% [27%, 60%]57%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.64 [1.05, 2.29]1.41-1.30 [-2.09, -0.47]2.12 [1.54, 2.60]43% [21%, 63%]57%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.64 [0.95, 2.37]1.41-1.30 [-2.11, -0.46]2.12 [1.48, 2.63]43% [20%, 64%]57%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.64 [1.07, 2.26]1.41-1.30 [-2.03, -0.42]2.12 [1.51, 2.55]43% [21%, 63%]57%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.41 [0.83, 2.00]1.23-0.97 [-1.59, -0.38]1.90 [1.23, 2.41]57% [30%, 83%]73%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.41 [0.84, 2.10]1.23-0.97 [-1.77, -0.15]1.90 [1.27, 2.49]57% [25%, 81%]73%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.41 [0.77, 2.06]1.23-0.97 [-1.72, -0.15]1.90 [1.19, 2.44]57% [26%, 86%]73%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC1.41 [0.88, 2.03]1.23-0.97 [-1.68, -0.06]1.90 [1.30, 2.43]57% [28%, 81%]73%80%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC3.81 [2.61, 4.97]2.56+3.42 [1.75, 4.88]4.70 [3.32, 5.81]10% [0%, 27%]30%47%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC3.81 [2.49, 5.12]2.56+3.42 [1.73, 5.07]4.70 [3.15, 5.94]10% [0%, 25%]30%47%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC3.81 [2.44, 5.34]2.56+3.42 [1.60, 5.29]4.70 [3.06, 6.08]10% [0%, 29%]30%47%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC3.81 [2.53, 5.31]2.56+3.42 [1.75, 5.25]4.70 [3.12, 6.15]10% [0%, 26%]30%47%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC4.71 [3.21, 6.13]2.68+4.50 [2.68, 6.12]5.62 [4.09, 6.87]10% [0%, 20%]20%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC4.71 [3.10, 6.34]2.68+4.50 [2.64, 6.34]5.62 [3.92, 7.02]10% [0%, 21%]20%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC4.71 [3.06, 6.54]2.68+4.50 [2.53, 6.54]5.62 [3.75, 7.19]10% [0%, 22%]20%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC4.71 [3.18, 6.49]2.68+4.50 [2.70, 6.49]5.62 [3.80, 7.21]10% [0%, 21%]20%37%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-01: +2.96 °F2026-08-02: +0.48 °F2026-08-03: -0.25 °F2026-08-04: -2.5 °F2026-08-05: +0.2 °F2026-08-06: -3.08 °F2026-08-07: -3.16 °F2026-08-08: -1.67 °F2026-08-09: -3.81 °F2026-08-10: -2.41 °F2026-08-11: -2.72 °F2026-08-12: -0.52 °F2026-08-13: -1.39 °F2026-08-14: +0.57 °F2026-08-15: -1.24 °F2026-08-16: +0.01 °F2026-08-17: -1.16 °F2026-08-18: -0.12 °F2026-08-19: -0.06 °F2026-08-20: -0.46 °F2026-08-21: +0.16 °F2026-08-22: -4.6 °F2026-08-23: -2.31 °F2026-08-24: -0.6 °F2026-08-25: -0.37 °F2026-08-26: +0.75 °F2026-08-27: -2.14 °F2026-08-28: -3.94 °F2026-08-29: -3.3 °F2026-08-30: -2.3 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.30
2026-08-29-3.30
2026-08-28-3.94
2026-08-27-2.14
2026-08-26+0.75
2026-08-25-0.37
2026-08-24-0.60
2026-08-23-2.31
2026-08-22-4.60
2026-08-21+0.16
2026-08-20-0.46
2026-08-19-0.06
2026-08-18-0.12
2026-08-17-1.16
2026-08-16+0.01
2026-08-15-1.24
2026-08-14+0.57
2026-08-13-1.39
2026-08-12-0.52
2026-08-11-2.72
2026-08-10-2.41
2026-08-09-3.81
2026-08-08-1.67
2026-08-07-3.16
2026-08-06-3.08
2026-08-05+0.20
2026-08-04-2.50
2026-08-03-0.25
2026-08-02+0.48
2026-08-01+2.96

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 0-5 to -4.5 °F: 1 day-4.5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 2 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 1 day-1.5 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 2 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 0.5 °F: 4 days0.5 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.32 · P90 |e| 3.35 °F-50+5 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.501
-4.50-4.000
-4.00-3.502
-3.50-3.003
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.005
-2.00-1.501
-1.50-1.003
-1.00-0.502
-0.50+0.005
+0.00+0.504
+0.50+1.002
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.001
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08301.64 -1.30

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 30 -3.63 [-4.28, -2.90] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -4.60 [-4.78, -4.43] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -5.41 [-5.98, -4.27] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -2.40 [-2.50, -2.29] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -3.08 [-3.62, -1.98] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -4.13 [-4.45, -3.80] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -5.57 [-6.19, -4.85] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -3.04 [-3.92, -1.50] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.78 [-1.66, 0.11] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -1.94 [-2.41, -1.14] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence