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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.10 [2.81, 4.82]1.70-4.10 [-4.82, -2.81]4.63 [3.37, 5.29]6% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.39+0.272026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.10 [2.62, 4.86]1.70-4.10 [-4.86, -2.62]4.63 [3.35, 5.33]6% [0%, 30%]12%29%-0.39+0.272026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.10 [2.62, 4.90]1.70-4.10 [-4.90, -2.62]4.63 [3.33, 5.37]6% [0%, 25%]12%29%-0.39+0.272026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.10 [2.41, 4.86]1.70-4.10 [-4.86, -2.41]4.63 [3.24, 5.34]6% [0%, 33%]12%29%-0.39+0.272026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.80 [2.44, 4.54]1.77-3.80 [-4.54, -2.44]4.40 [3.11, 5.08]12% [0%, 40%]18%35%-0.29+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.80 [2.31, 4.55]1.77-3.80 [-4.55, -2.31]4.40 [3.17, 5.11]12% [0%, 50%]18%35%-0.29+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.80 [2.33, 4.60]1.77-3.80 [-4.60, -2.33]4.40 [3.14, 5.15]12% [0%, 50%]18%35%-0.29+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC3.80 [2.16, 4.57]1.77-3.80 [-4.57, -2.16]4.40 [2.99, 5.11]12% [0%, 56%]18%35%-0.29+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.12 [2.68, 5.16]2.47-4.12 [-5.16, -2.68]5.00 [3.71, 5.78]6% [0%, 19%]29%47%-0.40-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.12 [2.53, 5.15]2.47-4.12 [-5.15, -2.53]5.00 [3.15, 5.81]6% [0%, 23%]29%47%-0.40-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.12 [2.55, 5.20]2.47-4.12 [-5.20, -2.55]5.00 [3.15, 5.81]6% [0%, 23%]29%47%-0.40-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.12 [2.43, 5.33]2.47-4.12 [-5.33, -2.43]5.00 [2.81, 5.84]6% [0%, 22%]29%47%-0.40-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.82 [2.45, 4.86]2.39-3.82 [-4.86, -2.45]4.73 [3.50, 5.45]12% [0%, 22%]29%47%-0.30-0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.82 [2.29, 4.85]2.39-3.82 [-4.85, -2.29]4.73 [3.23, 5.50]12% [0%, 25%]29%47%-0.30-0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.82 [2.29, 4.89]2.39-3.82 [-4.89, -2.29]4.73 [3.23, 5.51]12% [0%, 25%]29%47%-0.30-0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC3.82 [2.19, 5.01]2.39-3.82 [-5.01, -2.19]4.73 [2.84, 5.55]12% [0%, 25%]29%47%-0.30-0.022026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC5.85 [4.09, 7.52]2.09+5.80 [3.91, 7.52]6.38 [4.71, 7.80]6% [0%, 25%]6%12%-1.11+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC5.85 [3.97, 7.65]2.09+5.80 [3.79, 7.65]6.38 [4.72, 7.91]6% [0%, 25%]6%12%-1.11+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC5.85 [3.88, 7.73]2.09+5.80 [3.69, 7.73]6.38 [4.53, 7.89]6% [0%, 25%]6%12%-1.11+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC5.85 [3.77, 7.82]2.09+5.80 [3.61, 7.82]6.38 [4.48, 8.09]6% [0%, 28%]6%12%-1.11+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC6.01 [4.19, 7.68]2.07+5.99 [4.11, 7.68]6.56 [4.84, 7.96]6% [0%, 25%]6%12%-1.18+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC6.01 [4.10, 7.83]2.07+5.99 [4.00, 7.83]6.56 [4.82, 8.07]6% [0%, 25%]6%12%-1.18+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC6.01 [4.01, 7.89]2.07+5.99 [3.90, 7.89]6.56 [4.68, 8.07]6% [0%, 25%]6%12%-1.18+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC6.01 [3.90, 8.00]2.07+5.99 [3.82, 8.00]6.56 [4.65, 8.28]6% [0%, 28%]6%12%-1.18+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC6.11 [4.01, 7.36]2.08+6.11 [3.98, 7.36]6.64 [4.59, 7.71]6% [0%, 25%]6%6%-1.21+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC6.11 [3.72, 7.50]2.08+6.11 [3.69, 7.50]6.64 [4.51, 7.79]6% [0%, 25%]6%6%-1.21+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC6.11 [3.86, 7.50]2.08+6.11 [3.83, 7.50]6.64 [4.55, 7.79]6% [0%, 25%]6%6%-1.21+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC6.11 [3.64, 7.51]2.08+6.11 [3.62, 7.51]6.64 [4.37, 7.81]6% [0%, 28%]6%6%-1.21+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC6.31 [4.21, 7.52]2.07+6.31 [4.21, 7.52]6.84 [4.82, 7.89]6% [0%, 25%]6%6%-1.28+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC6.31 [3.86, 7.61]2.07+6.31 [3.86, 7.61]6.84 [4.67, 7.96]6% [0%, 25%]6%6%-1.28+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC6.31 [4.03, 7.64]2.07+6.31 [4.03, 7.64]6.84 [4.78, 7.94]6% [0%, 25%]6%6%-1.28+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC6.31 [3.86, 7.65]2.07+6.31 [3.86, 7.65]6.84 [4.57, 7.99]6% [0%, 28%]6%6%-1.28+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -3.81 °F2026-08-15: -5.67 °F2026-08-16: -3.6 °F2026-08-17: -6.81 °F2026-08-18: -2.16 °F2026-08-19: -2.02 °F2026-08-20: -7.53 °F2026-08-21: -4.22 °F2026-08-22: -8.61 °F2026-08-23: -3.2 °F2026-08-24: -3.8 °F2026-08-25: -3.79 °F2026-08-26: -2.62 °F2026-08-27: -4.58 °F2026-08-28: -5.69 °F2026-08-29: -1.06 °F2026-08-30: -0.47 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.47
2026-08-29-1.06
2026-08-28-5.69
2026-08-27-4.58
2026-08-26-2.62
2026-08-25-3.79
2026-08-24-3.80
2026-08-23-3.20
2026-08-22-8.61
2026-08-21-4.22
2026-08-20-7.53
2026-08-19-2.02
2026-08-18-2.16
2026-08-17-6.81
2026-08-16-3.60
2026-08-15-5.67
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-3.81

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.8 · P90 |e| 7.09 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08174.10 -4.10

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.89 [-1.79, -0.08] yes
NCEP GFS 17 +1.53 [0.19, 3.78] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -4.12 [-4.77, -2.05] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 +1.15 [-1.35, 2.02] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence