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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 8

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.67 [3.40, 5.92]1.84-4.67 [-5.92, -3.40]5.21 [3.74, 6.41]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.77+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.67 [3.24, 6.10]1.84-4.67 [-6.10, -3.24]5.21 [3.58, 6.55]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.77+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.67 [3.09, 6.20]1.84-4.67 [-6.20, -3.09]5.21 [3.32, 6.65]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.77+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.67 [2.92, 6.23]1.84-4.67 [-6.23, -2.92]5.21 [3.07, 6.74]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.77+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.91 [3.67, 6.16]1.84-4.91 [-6.16, -3.67]5.43 [4.00, 6.63]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-0.86+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.91 [3.51, 6.33]1.84-4.91 [-6.33, -3.51]5.43 [3.82, 6.78]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-0.86+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.91 [3.38, 6.43]1.84-4.91 [-6.43, -3.38]5.43 [3.58, 6.86]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-0.86+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC4.91 [3.24, 6.47]1.84-4.91 [-6.47, -3.24]5.43 [3.41, 6.99]0% [0%, 0%]9%14%-0.86+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.78 [3.62, 5.61]1.34-4.78 [-5.61, -3.62]5.10 [3.91, 5.85]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.81+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.78 [3.41, 5.64]1.34-4.78 [-5.64, -3.41]5.10 [3.73, 5.88]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.81+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.78 [3.33, 5.73]1.34-4.78 [-5.73, -3.33]5.10 [3.68, 5.93]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.81+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.78 [3.23, 5.61]1.34-4.78 [-5.61, -3.23]5.10 [3.54, 5.87]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.81+0.412026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC5.03 [3.87, 5.89]1.38-5.03 [-5.89, -3.87]5.36 [4.17, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.91+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC5.03 [3.68, 5.92]1.38-5.03 [-5.92, -3.68]5.36 [3.99, 6.16]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.91+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC5.03 [3.62, 6.02]1.38-5.03 [-6.02, -3.62]5.36 [3.94, 6.24]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.91+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC5.03 [3.52, 5.91]1.38-5.03 [-5.91, -3.52]5.36 [3.80, 6.16]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.91+0.392026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.54 [2.40, 4.50]2.07+3.46 [2.26, 4.50]4.21 [3.09, 4.95]14% [0%, 35%]27%55%-0.24+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.54 [2.21, 4.62]2.07+3.46 [2.09, 4.62]4.21 [2.82, 5.00]14% [0%, 38%]27%55%-0.24+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.54 [2.20, 4.72]2.07+3.46 [2.14, 4.72]4.21 [2.85, 5.16]14% [0%, 38%]27%55%-0.24+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.54 [2.26, 4.73]2.07+3.46 [2.06, 4.73]4.21 [2.76, 5.04]14% [0%, 38%]27%55%-0.24+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.33 [2.22, 4.27]2.07+3.20 [1.99, 4.27]4.00 [2.90, 4.73]18% [5%, 29%]32%55%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.33 [2.04, 4.38]2.07+3.20 [1.82, 4.38]4.00 [2.65, 4.76]18% [0%, 29%]32%55%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.33 [2.06, 4.46]2.07+3.20 [1.87, 4.46]4.00 [2.68, 4.92]18% [0%, 30%]32%55%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.33 [2.11, 4.48]2.07+3.20 [1.79, 4.48]4.00 [2.58, 4.80]18% [0%, 29%]32%55%-0.16+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.10 [2.19, 3.88]1.63+3.00 [2.00, 3.88]3.61 [2.64, 4.22]23% [7%, 37%]27%45%-0.08+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.10 [2.04, 3.91]1.63+3.00 [1.86, 3.89]3.61 [2.55, 4.22]23% [0%, 38%]27%45%-0.08+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.10 [2.07, 4.04]1.63+3.00 [1.88, 4.04]3.61 [2.50, 4.31]23% [0%, 38%]27%45%-0.08+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.10 [2.08, 3.95]1.63+3.00 [1.84, 3.95]3.61 [2.44, 4.28]23% [0%, 39%]27%45%-0.08+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.92 [2.05, 3.67]1.65+2.76 [1.71, 3.66]3.42 [2.47, 4.01]18% [4%, 30%]36%55%-0.02+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.92 [1.89, 3.67]1.65+2.76 [1.56, 3.66]3.42 [2.34, 4.02]18% [0%, 30%]36%55%-0.02+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.92 [1.93, 3.82]1.65+2.76 [1.60, 3.81]3.42 [2.32, 4.11]18% [0%, 31%]36%55%-0.02+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.92 [1.93, 3.72]1.65+2.76 [1.56, 3.72]3.42 [2.26, 4.09]18% [0%, 29%]36%55%-0.02+0.432026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -5.03 °F2026-08-10: -7.17 °F2026-08-11: -3.47 °F2026-08-12: -3.18 °F2026-08-13: -3.19 °F2026-08-14: -1.1 °F2026-08-15: -6.49 °F2026-08-16: -4.55 °F2026-08-17: -5.33 °F2026-08-18: -3.85 °F2026-08-19: -3.87 °F2026-08-20: -4.73 °F2026-08-21: -6.63 °F2026-08-22: -9.35 °F2026-08-23: -9.85 °F2026-08-24: -7.68 °F2026-08-25: -3.97 °F2026-08-26: -3.62 °F2026-08-27: -1.14 °F2026-08-28: -3.27 °F2026-08-29: -1.83 °F2026-08-30: -3.52 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.52
2026-08-29-1.83
2026-08-28-3.27
2026-08-27-1.14
2026-08-26-3.62
2026-08-25-3.97
2026-08-24-7.68
2026-08-23-9.85
2026-08-22-9.35
2026-08-21-6.63
2026-08-20-4.73
2026-08-19-3.87
2026-08-18-3.85
2026-08-17-5.33
2026-08-16-4.55
2026-08-15-6.49
2026-08-14-1.10
2026-08-13-3.19
2026-08-12-3.18
2026-08-11-3.47
2026-08-10-7.17
2026-08-09-5.03

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 2 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 9 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.92 · P90 |e| 7.63 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.002
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.009
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.67 -4.67

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 22 +2.36 [1.07, 3.40] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -2.76 [-3.82, -1.06] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 +0.89 [0.08, 1.79] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +2.04 [-0.02, 3.39] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence