Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 3

KAUS · gfs · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.51 [0.94, 2.08]1.45-1.00 [-1.60, -0.46]2.05 [1.34, 2.60]44% [24%, 63%]74%81%+0.21+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.51 [0.97, 2.15]1.45-1.00 [-1.73, -0.38]2.05 [1.32, 2.70]44% [22%, 67%]74%81%+0.21+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.51 [0.86, 2.17]1.45-1.00 [-1.78, -0.31]2.05 [1.18, 2.77]44% [22%, 67%]74%81%+0.21+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.51 [0.92, 2.17]1.45-1.00 [-1.69, -0.35]2.05 [1.23, 2.71]44% [21%, 64%]74%81%+0.21+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC1.40 [0.79, 2.05]1.49-0.74 [-1.31, -0.19]2.02 [1.20, 2.60]63% [42%, 86%]67%85%+0.27+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC1.40 [0.82, 2.14]1.49-0.74 [-1.42, -0.11]2.02 [1.27, 2.67]63% [39%, 85%]67%85%+0.27+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC1.40 [0.72, 2.10]1.49-0.74 [-1.47, -0.07]2.02 [1.12, 2.69]63% [39%, 89%]67%85%+0.27+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC1.40 [0.81, 2.15]1.49-0.74 [-1.41, -0.09]2.02 [1.21, 2.71]63% [36%, 86%]67%85%+0.27+0.252026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.43 [1.09, 1.82]1.53-0.91 [-1.52, -0.32]2.04 [1.45, 2.53]52% [43%, 62%]78%85%+0.26+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.43 [1.06, 1.87]1.53-0.91 [-1.58, -0.28]2.04 [1.44, 2.57]52% [43%, 63%]78%85%+0.26+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.43 [1.03, 1.85]1.53-0.91 [-1.58, -0.20]2.04 [1.39, 2.55]52% [43%, 62%]78%85%+0.26+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.43 [1.07, 1.89]1.53-0.91 [-1.57, -0.27]2.04 [1.41, 2.58]52% [43%, 64%]78%85%+0.26+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC1.50 [0.99, 2.14]1.55-0.76 [-1.33, -0.21]2.07 [1.31, 2.73]48% [30%, 63%]78%81%+0.22+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC1.50 [1.01, 2.23]1.55-0.76 [-1.41, -0.14]2.07 [1.37, 2.80]48% [27%, 62%]78%81%+0.22+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC1.50 [0.97, 2.22]1.55-0.76 [-1.42, -0.07]2.07 [1.32, 2.77]48% [25%, 64%]78%81%+0.22+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC1.50 [1.01, 2.28]1.55-0.76 [-1.41, -0.12]2.07 [1.34, 2.81]48% [22%, 64%]78%81%+0.22+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.28 [2.07, 4.50]2.58+2.83 [1.11, 4.38]4.09 [2.67, 5.14]26% [14%, 38%]44%48%+0.06+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.28 [1.96, 4.91]2.58+2.83 [0.96, 4.90]4.09 [2.57, 5.43]26% [12%, 40%]44%48%+0.06+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.28 [1.92, 5.21]2.58+2.83 [0.92, 5.21]4.09 [2.47, 5.67]26% [9%, 40%]44%48%+0.06+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.28 [1.89, 4.94]2.58+2.83 [0.80, 4.89]4.09 [2.48, 5.42]26% [10%, 42%]44%48%+0.06+0.262026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC4.25 [2.61, 5.75]2.73+4.07 [2.21, 5.75]5.14 [3.45, 6.37]11% [0%, 30%]33%48%-0.22+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC4.25 [2.45, 6.26]2.73+4.07 [2.03, 6.26]5.14 [3.31, 6.70]11% [0%, 30%]33%48%-0.22+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC4.25 [2.43, 6.56]2.73+4.07 [1.93, 6.56]5.14 [3.23, 6.94]11% [0%, 32%]33%48%-0.22+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC4.25 [2.29, 6.23]2.73+4.07 [1.91, 6.23]5.14 [3.14, 6.71]11% [0%, 30%]33%48%-0.22+0.222026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.24 [2.15, 4.27]2.43+2.79 [1.11, 4.19]4.03 [2.69, 5.03]26% [15%, 38%]37%52%+0.07+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.24 [2.02, 4.52]2.43+2.79 [1.01, 4.50]4.03 [2.53, 5.23]26% [14%, 40%]37%52%+0.07+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.24 [1.96, 4.85]2.43+2.79 [0.98, 4.85]4.03 [2.48, 5.50]26% [11%, 40%]37%52%+0.07+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.24 [1.93, 4.63]2.43+2.79 [0.84, 4.63]4.03 [2.52, 5.28]26% [12%, 43%]37%52%+0.07+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC4.19 [2.67, 5.53]2.55+3.94 [2.05, 5.52]5.00 [3.41, 6.16]7% [0%, 19%]30%44%-0.20+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC4.19 [2.55, 5.89]2.55+3.94 [1.98, 5.89]5.00 [3.22, 6.41]7% [0%, 19%]30%44%-0.20+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC4.19 [2.50, 6.19]2.55+3.94 [1.94, 6.19]5.00 [3.14, 6.67]7% [0%, 21%]30%44%-0.20+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC4.19 [2.42, 5.96]2.55+3.94 [1.83, 5.96]5.00 [3.11, 6.45]7% [0%, 20%]30%44%-0.20+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +1.74 °F2026-08-05: -0.29 °F2026-08-06: -2.57 °F2026-08-07: -3.89 °F2026-08-08: -1.59 °F2026-08-09: -3.3 °F2026-08-10: +2.16 °F2026-08-11: +0.53 °F2026-08-12: -1.41 °F2026-08-13: -1.41 °F2026-08-14: +0.53 °F2026-08-15: -0.48 °F2026-08-16: -0.38 °F2026-08-17: -1.12 °F2026-08-18: +0.29 °F2026-08-19: +0.12 °F2026-08-20: +0.89 °F2026-08-21: +0.14 °F2026-08-22: -3.29 °F2026-08-23: -1.67 °F2026-08-24: -1.91 °F2026-08-25: -0.16 °F2026-08-26: +0.42 °F2026-08-27: -5.37 °F2026-08-28: -1.13 °F2026-08-29: +0.1 °F2026-08-30: -3.96 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.96
2026-08-29+0.10
2026-08-28-1.13
2026-08-27-5.37
2026-08-26+0.42
2026-08-25-0.16
2026-08-24-1.91
2026-08-23-1.67
2026-08-22-3.29
2026-08-21+0.14
2026-08-20+0.89
2026-08-19+0.12
2026-08-18+0.29
2026-08-17-1.12
2026-08-16-0.38
2026-08-15-0.48
2026-08-14+0.53
2026-08-13-1.41
2026-08-12-1.41
2026-08-11+0.53
2026-08-10+2.16
2026-08-09-3.30
2026-08-08-1.59
2026-08-07-3.89
2026-08-06-2.57
2026-08-05-0.29
2026-08-04+1.74

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 8 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.13 · P90 |e| 3.54 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.008
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08271.51 -1.00

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 -3.61 [-4.27, -2.73] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -5.85 [-7.22, -4.21] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -2.74 [-3.75, -1.28] yes
Persistence (baseline) 27 -0.41 [-1.19, 0.53] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence