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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.06 [3.35, 4.72]1.23-4.06 [-4.72, -3.35]4.31 [3.61, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.86+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.06 [3.18, 4.77]1.23-4.06 [-4.77, -3.18]4.31 [3.51, 4.96]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.86+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.06 [3.17, 4.82]1.23-4.06 [-4.82, -3.17]4.31 [3.42, 5.03]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.86+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.06 [3.02, 4.84]1.23-4.06 [-4.84, -3.02]4.31 [3.33, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]9%23%-0.86+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.62 [2.92, 4.12]1.10-3.62 [-4.12, -2.92]3.87 [3.29, 4.31]5% [0%, 25%]9%32%-0.66+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.62 [2.78, 4.16]1.10-3.62 [-4.16, -2.78]3.87 [3.07, 4.33]5% [0%, 33%]9%32%-0.66+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.62 [2.68, 4.21]1.10-3.62 [-4.21, -2.68]3.87 [3.01, 4.40]5% [0%, 33%]9%32%-0.66+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.62 [2.62, 4.20]1.10-3.62 [-4.20, -2.62]3.87 [2.96, 4.38]5% [0%, 33%]9%32%-0.66+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.33 [3.89, 4.91]1.14-4.33 [-4.91, -3.89]4.55 [4.04, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%23%-0.98+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.33 [3.88, 4.99]1.14-4.33 [-4.99, -3.88]4.55 [3.99, 5.18]0% [0%, 0%]0%23%-0.98+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.33 [3.83, 4.97]1.14-4.33 [-4.97, -3.83]4.55 [3.92, 5.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%23%-0.98+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.33 [3.81, 5.00]1.14-4.33 [-5.00, -3.81]4.55 [3.92, 5.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%23%-0.98+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.82 [3.38, 4.34]1.21-3.82 [-4.34, -3.38]4.09 [3.54, 4.66]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.75+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.82 [3.35, 4.38]1.21-3.82 [-4.38, -3.35]4.09 [3.45, 4.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.75+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.82 [3.32, 4.42]1.21-3.82 [-4.42, -3.32]4.09 [3.42, 4.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.75+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.82 [3.30, 4.44]1.21-3.82 [-4.44, -3.30]4.09 [3.41, 4.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%36%-0.75+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.24 [2.51, 5.44]2.05+4.04 [2.08, 5.31]4.84 [3.06, 5.86]9% [0%, 24%]18%32%-0.31+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.24 [2.11, 5.60]2.05+4.04 [1.50, 5.54]4.84 [2.40, 5.95]9% [0%, 25%]18%32%-0.31+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.24 [2.11, 5.69]2.05+4.04 [1.42, 5.69]4.84 [2.42, 6.02]9% [0%, 25%]18%32%-0.31+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.24 [2.02, 5.65]2.05+4.04 [1.47, 5.65]4.84 [2.38, 6.00]9% [0%, 25%]18%32%-0.31+0.362026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.37 [2.60, 5.58]2.09+4.17 [2.12, 5.49]4.99 [3.16, 6.02]9% [0%, 24%]18%27%-0.36+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.37 [2.06, 5.74]2.09+4.17 [1.55, 5.71]4.99 [2.44, 6.11]9% [0%, 25%]18%27%-0.36+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.37 [2.16, 5.87]2.09+4.17 [1.51, 5.87]4.99 [2.48, 6.19]9% [0%, 25%]18%27%-0.36+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC4.37 [2.03, 5.80]2.09+4.17 [1.56, 5.80]4.99 [2.43, 6.17]9% [0%, 25%]18%27%-0.36+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.26 [2.64, 5.34]2.25+3.90 [1.84, 5.19]4.87 [3.08, 5.85]9% [0%, 24%]23%32%-0.32+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.26 [2.26, 5.59]2.25+3.90 [1.25, 5.50]4.87 [2.28, 6.04]9% [0%, 25%]23%32%-0.32+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.26 [2.26, 5.68]2.25+3.90 [1.09, 5.66]4.87 [2.44, 6.14]9% [0%, 25%]23%32%-0.32+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.26 [2.26, 5.60]2.25+3.90 [1.14, 5.57]4.87 [2.27, 6.05]9% [0%, 25%]23%32%-0.32+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.45 [2.74, 5.61]2.28+4.09 [1.94, 5.42]5.08 [3.19, 6.12]9% [0%, 24%]14%27%-0.38+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.45 [2.27, 5.82]2.28+4.09 [1.41, 5.75]5.08 [2.44, 6.28]9% [0%, 25%]14%27%-0.38+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.45 [2.27, 5.94]2.28+4.09 [1.21, 5.93]5.08 [2.53, 6.40]9% [0%, 25%]14%27%-0.38+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC4.45 [2.27, 5.88]2.28+4.09 [1.23, 5.85]5.08 [2.39, 6.32]9% [0%, 25%]14%27%-0.38+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -1.31 °F2026-08-10: -5.61 °F2026-08-11: -5.38 °F2026-08-12: -4.26 °F2026-08-13: -6.42 °F2026-08-14: -3.27 °F2026-08-15: -5.81 °F2026-08-16: -4.19 °F2026-08-17: -6.02 °F2026-08-18: -2.95 °F2026-08-19: -3.39 °F2026-08-20: -3.12 °F2026-08-21: -3.39 °F2026-08-22: -4.71 °F2026-08-23: -4.29 °F2026-08-24: -3.32 °F2026-08-25: -2.56 °F2026-08-26: -3.24 °F2026-08-27: -2.68 °F2026-08-28: -5.11 °F2026-08-29: -6.49 °F2026-08-30: -1.94 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.94
2026-08-29-6.49
2026-08-28-5.11
2026-08-27-2.68
2026-08-26-3.24
2026-08-25-2.56
2026-08-24-3.32
2026-08-23-4.29
2026-08-22-4.71
2026-08-21-3.39
2026-08-20-3.12
2026-08-19-3.39
2026-08-18-2.95
2026-08-17-6.02
2026-08-16-4.19
2026-08-15-5.81
2026-08-14-3.27
2026-08-13-6.42
2026-08-12-4.26
2026-08-11-5.38
2026-08-10-5.61
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-1.31

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.79 · P90 |e| 6 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.06 -4.06

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.89 [-1.86, -0.12] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +2.74 [1.28, 3.75] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.59 [-4.80, -2.30] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.88 [0.38, 2.71] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence