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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC5.12 [4.71, 5.47]0.90-5.12 [-5.47, -4.71]5.25 [4.85, 5.58]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.66+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC5.12 [4.64, 5.51]0.90-5.12 [-5.51, -4.64]5.25 [4.77, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.66+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC5.12 [4.50, 5.52]0.90-5.12 [-5.52, -4.50]5.25 [4.63, 5.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.66+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC5.12 [4.56, 5.52]0.90-5.12 [-5.52, -4.56]5.25 [4.72, 5.61]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.66+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC5.22 [4.83, 5.54]0.87-5.22 [-5.54, -4.83]5.34 [4.94, 5.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.71+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC5.22 [4.77, 5.59]0.87-5.22 [-5.59, -4.77]5.34 [4.88, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.71+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC5.22 [4.65, 5.61]0.87-5.22 [-5.61, -4.65]5.34 [4.73, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.71+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC5.22 [4.69, 5.60]0.87-5.22 [-5.60, -4.69]5.34 [4.82, 5.67]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.71+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC5.55 [5.16, 5.91]0.90-5.55 [-5.91, -5.16]5.66 [5.30, 5.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.88+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC5.55 [5.09, 5.99]0.90-5.55 [-5.99, -5.09]5.66 [5.26, 6.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.88+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC5.55 [4.95, 6.01]0.90-5.55 [-6.01, -4.95]5.66 [5.12, 6.06]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.88+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC5.55 [5.00, 6.01]0.90-5.55 [-6.01, -5.00]5.66 [5.17, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.88+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC5.65 [5.27, 5.99]0.86-5.65 [-5.99, -5.27]5.75 [5.40, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC5.65 [5.18, 6.06]0.86-5.65 [-6.06, -5.18]5.75 [5.35, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC5.65 [5.08, 6.08]0.86-5.65 [-6.08, -5.08]5.75 [5.23, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC5.65 [5.10, 6.08]0.86-5.65 [-6.08, -5.10]5.75 [5.26, 6.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.93+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.97 [2.06, 3.76]1.64+2.71 [1.62, 3.68]3.39 [2.44, 4.16]7% [0%, 20%]30%52%+0.15+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.97 [2.03, 3.93]1.64+2.71 [1.48, 3.85]3.39 [2.42, 4.25]7% [0%, 21%]30%52%+0.15+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.97 [1.96, 4.01]1.64+2.71 [1.45, 4.01]3.39 [2.34, 4.33]7% [0%, 22%]30%52%+0.15+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.97 [1.91, 4.03]1.64+2.71 [1.29, 4.03]3.39 [2.26, 4.36]7% [0%, 21%]30%52%+0.15+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.85 [1.96, 3.67]1.66+2.53 [1.40, 3.56]3.29 [2.32, 4.07]11% [0%, 30%]37%59%+0.18+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.85 [1.93, 3.83]1.66+2.53 [1.24, 3.76]3.29 [2.30, 4.16]11% [0%, 29%]37%59%+0.18+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.85 [1.88, 3.93]1.66+2.53 [1.22, 3.90]3.29 [2.20, 4.25]11% [0%, 30%]37%59%+0.18+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC2.85 [1.81, 3.94]1.66+2.53 [1.06, 3.93]3.29 [2.16, 4.27]11% [0%, 29%]37%59%+0.18+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.78 [1.94, 3.48]1.68+2.51 [1.47, 3.41]3.24 [2.39, 3.90]19% [7%, 33%]41%59%+0.20+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.78 [1.91, 3.66]1.68+2.51 [1.39, 3.56]3.24 [2.35, 4.03]19% [6%, 33%]41%59%+0.20+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.78 [1.85, 3.74]1.68+2.51 [1.30, 3.73]3.24 [2.27, 4.11]19% [0%, 33%]41%59%+0.20+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.78 [1.79, 3.71]1.68+2.51 [1.16, 3.71]3.24 [2.20, 4.10]19% [4%, 34%]41%59%+0.20+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC2.67 [1.84, 3.41]1.71+2.34 [1.24, 3.30]3.14 [2.28, 3.84]19% [7%, 33%]37%59%+0.23+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC2.67 [1.80, 3.58]1.71+2.34 [1.17, 3.47]3.14 [2.24, 3.97]19% [6%, 33%]37%59%+0.23+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC2.67 [1.73, 3.66]1.71+2.34 [1.07, 3.66]3.14 [2.15, 4.05]19% [0%, 33%]37%59%+0.23+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC2.67 [1.69, 3.63]1.71+2.34 [0.92, 3.63]3.14 [2.11, 4.03]19% [4%, 34%]37%59%+0.23+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -5.36 °F2026-08-05: -5.16 °F2026-08-06: -5.62 °F2026-08-07: -6.25 °F2026-08-08: -5.4 °F2026-08-09: -6.77 °F2026-08-10: -5.82 °F2026-08-11: -4.2 °F2026-08-12: -4.31 °F2026-08-13: -4.89 °F2026-08-14: -4.99 °F2026-08-15: -5.81 °F2026-08-16: -4.79 °F2026-08-17: -7.27 °F2026-08-18: -4.48 °F2026-08-19: -4.97 °F2026-08-20: -4.35 °F2026-08-21: -4.08 °F2026-08-22: -8.5 °F2026-08-23: -4.58 °F2026-08-24: -5.34 °F2026-08-25: -3.74 °F2026-08-26: -2.88 °F2026-08-27: -6.31 °F2026-08-28: -4.76 °F2026-08-29: -4.06 °F2026-08-30: -3.5 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.50
2026-08-29-4.06
2026-08-28-4.76
2026-08-27-6.31
2026-08-26-2.88
2026-08-25-3.74
2026-08-24-5.34
2026-08-23-4.58
2026-08-22-8.50
2026-08-21-4.08
2026-08-20-4.35
2026-08-19-4.97
2026-08-18-4.48
2026-08-17-7.27
2026-08-16-4.79
2026-08-15-5.81
2026-08-14-4.99
2026-08-13-4.89
2026-08-12-4.31
2026-08-11-4.20
2026-08-10-5.82
2026-08-09-6.77
2026-08-08-5.40
2026-08-07-6.25
2026-08-06-5.62
2026-08-05-5.16
2026-08-04-5.36

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 7 days-5 to -4 °F: 12 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.97 · P90 |e| 6.5 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.007
-5.00-4.0012
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08275.12 -5.12

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +3.61 [2.73, 4.27] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.09 [-3.06, -0.69] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.89 [0.12, 1.86] yes
Persistence (baseline) 27 +3.19 [2.35, 3.91] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence