Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 7

KAUS · gfs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.77 [2.34, 3.34]2.66-1.36 [-2.50, -0.35]3.44 [2.88, 4.08]22% [10%, 32%]43%65%-0.18-0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.77 [2.34, 3.31]2.66-1.36 [-2.50, -0.39]3.44 [2.84, 4.04]22% [11%, 33%]43%65%-0.18-0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.77 [2.30, 3.45]2.66-1.36 [-2.71, -0.30]3.44 [2.80, 4.12]22% [8%, 31%]43%65%-0.18-0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.77 [2.35, 3.51]2.66-1.36 [-2.73, -0.29]3.44 [2.87, 4.15]22% [7%, 33%]43%65%-0.18-0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.88 [2.48, 3.45]2.77-1.26 [-2.35, -0.32]3.55 [3.06, 4.09]13% [4%, 22%]43%65%-0.23-0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.88 [2.46, 3.42]2.77-1.26 [-2.37, -0.30]3.55 [3.04, 4.02]13% [0%, 24%]43%65%-0.23-0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.88 [2.45, 3.51]2.77-1.26 [-2.41, -0.26]3.55 [3.05, 4.12]13% [0%, 24%]43%65%-0.23-0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.88 [2.49, 3.50]2.77-1.26 [-2.57, -0.34]3.55 [3.05, 4.12]13% [0%, 23%]43%65%-0.23-0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.32 [1.40, 3.09]2.17-1.15 [-2.20, -0.10]3.15 [2.09, 4.00]43% [24%, 69%]52%70%+0.01+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.32 [1.20, 3.13]2.17-1.15 [-2.33, 0.06]3.15 [1.86, 4.02]43% [25%, 80%]52%70%+0.01+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.32 [1.21, 3.23]2.17-1.15 [-2.39, 0.13]3.15 [1.85, 4.16]43% [22%, 75%]52%70%+0.01+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.32 [1.07, 3.39]2.17-1.15 [-2.30, 0.14]3.15 [1.79, 4.23]43% [19%, 83%]52%70%+0.01+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.28 [1.54, 3.02]2.22-0.71 [-1.80, 0.51]3.14 [2.13, 4.03]39% [26%, 56%]61%74%+0.03-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.28 [1.35, 3.08]2.22-0.71 [-1.91, 0.66]3.14 [1.93, 4.06]39% [26%, 64%]61%74%+0.03-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.28 [1.45, 3.09]2.22-0.71 [-2.05, 0.84]3.14 [1.96, 4.13]39% [26%, 60%]61%74%+0.03-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC2.28 [1.45, 3.26]2.22-0.71 [-1.88, 0.82]3.14 [1.84, 4.24]39% [27%, 61%]61%74%+0.03-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.13 [2.34, 4.02]2.52+2.30 [0.84, 3.66]3.74 [2.79, 4.55]17% [0%, 32%]30%52%+0.06+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.13 [2.32, 4.15]2.52+2.30 [0.81, 3.66]3.74 [2.77, 4.64]17% [0%, 33%]30%52%+0.06+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.13 [2.30, 4.18]2.52+2.30 [0.76, 3.74]3.74 [2.73, 4.68]17% [0%, 36%]30%52%+0.06+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.13 [2.28, 4.23]2.52+2.30 [0.63, 3.78]3.74 [2.73, 4.69]17% [0%, 32%]30%52%+0.06+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.81 [2.57, 4.97]2.69+3.37 [1.74, 4.80]4.57 [3.27, 5.55]9% [0%, 22%]35%48%-0.14+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.81 [2.49, 5.08]2.69+3.37 [1.70, 4.85]4.57 [3.20, 5.64]9% [0%, 24%]35%48%-0.14+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.81 [2.44, 5.16]2.69+3.37 [1.63, 4.93]4.57 [3.19, 5.73]9% [0%, 25%]35%48%-0.14+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.81 [2.44, 5.16]2.69+3.37 [1.58, 4.96]4.57 [3.17, 5.73]9% [0%, 25%]35%48%-0.14+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.61 [2.43, 4.90]2.78+2.97 [1.26, 4.67]4.64 [2.95, 6.00]9% [0%, 20%]39%61%-0.08+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.61 [2.44, 5.07]2.78+2.97 [1.16, 4.85]4.64 [2.78, 6.14]9% [0%, 20%]39%61%-0.08+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.61 [2.43, 5.14]2.78+2.97 [1.14, 4.92]4.64 [2.73, 6.28]9% [0%, 21%]39%61%-0.08+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.61 [2.33, 5.19]2.78+2.97 [1.12, 5.06]4.64 [2.66, 6.25]9% [0%, 19%]39%61%-0.08+0.162026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC4.39 [2.85, 5.93]2.93+4.07 [2.07, 5.93]5.51 [3.43, 7.01]13% [4%, 22%]26%39%-0.31+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC4.39 [2.80, 6.12]2.93+4.07 [1.95, 6.12]5.51 [3.35, 7.19]13% [0%, 23%]26%39%-0.31+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC4.39 [2.79, 6.17]2.93+4.07 [1.91, 6.17]5.51 [3.36, 7.29]13% [0%, 23%]26%39%-0.31+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC4.39 [2.71, 6.24]2.93+4.07 [1.83, 6.24]5.51 [3.19, 7.28]13% [0%, 21%]26%39%-0.31+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: +2.34 °F2026-08-09: -4.73 °F2026-08-10: +0.82 °F2026-08-11: -2.71 °F2026-08-12: -1.99 °F2026-08-13: +0.8 °F2026-08-14: +5.44 °F2026-08-15: -4.73 °F2026-08-16: +0.33 °F2026-08-17: -2.87 °F2026-08-18: +1.06 °F2026-08-19: +2.05 °F2026-08-20: -1.92 °F2026-08-21: -3.88 °F2026-08-22: -8.18 °F2026-08-23: -5.24 °F2026-08-24: -0.4 °F2026-08-25: +1.06 °F2026-08-26: +2.38 °F2026-08-27: -1.54 °F2026-08-28: -0.2 °F2026-08-29: -3.61 °F2026-08-30: -5.49 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.49
2026-08-29-3.61
2026-08-28-0.20
2026-08-27-1.54
2026-08-26+2.38
2026-08-25+1.06
2026-08-24-0.40
2026-08-23-5.24
2026-08-22-8.18
2026-08-21-3.88
2026-08-20-1.92
2026-08-19+2.05
2026-08-18+1.06
2026-08-17-2.87
2026-08-16+0.33
2026-08-15-4.73
2026-08-14+5.44
2026-08-13+0.80
2026-08-12-1.99
2026-08-11-2.71
2026-08-10+0.82
2026-08-09-4.73
2026-08-08+2.34

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.34 · P90 |e| 5.4 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.003
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.77 -1.36

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -2.05 [-3.12, -0.63] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -4.57 [-5.97, -2.45] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -1.06 [-1.84, 1.03] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.43 [-0.52, 1.07] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence