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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.99 [2.78, 4.64]1.56-3.99 [-4.64, -2.78]4.40 [3.25, 5.00]6% [0%, 18%]22%33%-0.50+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.99 [2.04, 4.70]1.56-3.99 [-4.70, -2.04]4.40 [2.46, 5.05]6% [0%, 22%]22%33%-0.50+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.99 [2.00, 4.72]1.56-3.99 [-4.72, -2.00]4.40 [2.44, 5.06]6% [0%, 22%]22%33%-0.50+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.99 [2.20, 4.69]1.56-3.99 [-4.69, -2.20]4.40 [2.66, 5.06]6% [0%, 22%]22%33%-0.50+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.73 [2.48, 4.44]1.55-3.73 [-4.44, -2.48]4.17 [2.96, 4.84]6% [0%, 18%]28%33%-0.40+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.73 [1.75, 4.48]1.55-3.73 [-4.48, -1.75]4.17 [2.16, 4.88]6% [0%, 22%]28%33%-0.40+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.73 [1.74, 4.52]1.55-3.73 [-4.52, -1.74]4.17 [2.10, 4.90]6% [0%, 22%]28%33%-0.40+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.73 [1.88, 4.50]1.55-3.73 [-4.50, -1.88]4.17 [2.26, 4.90]6% [0%, 22%]28%33%-0.40+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.95 [3.45, 4.48]1.22-3.95 [-4.48, -3.45]4.22 [3.63, 4.84]0% [0%, 0%]12%29%-0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.95 [3.21, 4.52]1.22-3.95 [-4.52, -3.21]4.22 [3.40, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]12%29%-0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.95 [3.18, 4.53]1.22-3.95 [-4.53, -3.18]4.22 [3.38, 4.93]0% [0%, 0%]12%29%-0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.95 [3.28, 4.53]1.22-3.95 [-4.53, -3.28]4.22 [3.46, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]12%29%-0.40+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.68 [3.13, 4.25]1.33-3.68 [-4.25, -3.13]4.02 [3.34, 4.67]6% [0%, 22%]18%35%-0.30+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.68 [2.82, 4.29]1.33-3.68 [-4.29, -2.82]4.02 [3.04, 4.74]6% [0%, 25%]18%35%-0.30+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.68 [2.88, 4.41]1.33-3.68 [-4.41, -2.88]4.02 [3.04, 4.78]6% [0%, 25%]18%35%-0.30+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC3.68 [2.91, 4.39]1.33-3.68 [-4.39, -2.91]4.02 [3.11, 4.79]6% [0%, 25%]18%35%-0.30+0.452026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC5.50 [3.53, 6.87]2.14+5.50 [3.53, 6.87]6.10 [4.30, 7.22]6% [0%, 20%]11%17%-0.60+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC5.50 [3.41, 6.94]2.14+5.50 [3.41, 6.94]6.10 [4.23, 7.31]6% [0%, 21%]11%17%-0.60+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC5.50 [3.41, 6.91]2.14+5.50 [3.41, 6.91]6.10 [4.20, 7.31]6% [0%, 20%]11%17%-0.60+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC5.50 [3.30, 6.97]2.14+5.50 [3.30, 6.97]6.10 [4.06, 7.32]6% [0%, 22%]11%17%-0.60+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC5.68 [3.67, 7.08]2.19+5.68 [3.67, 7.08]6.28 [4.41, 7.42]6% [0%, 20%]6%17%-0.65+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC5.68 [3.54, 7.15]2.19+5.68 [3.54, 7.15]6.28 [4.30, 7.53]6% [0%, 21%]6%17%-0.65+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC5.68 [3.56, 7.14]2.19+5.68 [3.56, 7.14]6.28 [4.31, 7.53]6% [0%, 20%]6%17%-0.65+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC5.68 [3.44, 7.20]2.19+5.68 [3.44, 7.20]6.28 [4.18, 7.56]6% [0%, 22%]6%17%-0.65+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC5.38 [3.31, 6.62]2.53+5.28 [3.08, 6.62]6.06 [4.53, 6.91]12% [0%, 36%]18%18%-0.52+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC5.38 [3.17, 6.56]2.53+5.28 [2.98, 6.56]6.06 [4.36, 6.87]12% [0%, 38%]18%18%-0.52+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC5.38 [3.10, 6.59]2.53+5.28 [2.82, 6.59]6.06 [4.31, 6.91]12% [0%, 40%]18%18%-0.52+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC5.38 [3.03, 6.57]2.53+5.28 [2.73, 6.57]6.06 [4.27, 6.89]12% [0%, 40%]18%18%-0.52+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC5.48 [3.42, 6.69]2.56+5.35 [3.13, 6.69]6.13 [4.61, 7.00]6% [0%, 20%]18%18%-0.55+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC5.48 [3.28, 6.64]2.56+5.35 [3.00, 6.64]6.13 [4.47, 6.96]6% [0%, 22%]18%18%-0.55+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC5.48 [3.27, 6.67]2.56+5.35 [2.84, 6.67]6.13 [4.35, 7.03]6% [0%, 22%]18%18%-0.55+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC5.48 [3.16, 6.64]2.56+5.35 [2.76, 6.64]6.13 [4.30, 6.96]6% [0%, 22%]18%18%-0.55+0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -1.31 °F2026-08-14: -1.84 °F2026-08-15: -7.32 °F2026-08-16: -5.51 °F2026-08-17: -5.31 °F2026-08-18: -1.94 °F2026-08-19: -6.41 °F2026-08-20: -3.62 °F2026-08-21: -4.88 °F2026-08-22: -5.75 °F2026-08-23: -4.55 °F2026-08-24: -2.24 °F2026-08-25: -3.78 °F2026-08-26: -4.17 °F2026-08-27: -5.64 °F2026-08-28: -2.7 °F2026-08-29: -0.44 °F2026-08-30: -4.37 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.37
2026-08-29-0.44
2026-08-28-2.70
2026-08-27-5.64
2026-08-26-4.17
2026-08-25-3.78
2026-08-24-2.24
2026-08-23-4.55
2026-08-22-5.75
2026-08-21-4.88
2026-08-20-3.62
2026-08-19-6.41
2026-08-18-1.94
2026-08-17-5.31
2026-08-16-5.51
2026-08-15-7.32
2026-08-14-1.84
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-1.31

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.27 · P90 |e| 5.95 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.99 -3.99

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.65 [-2.29, 0.31] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.06 [-1.03, 1.84] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -3.89 [-4.81, -2.24] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +1.32 [-1.69, 2.22] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence