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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.82 [3.74, 5.79]1.51-4.82 [-5.79, -3.74]5.25 [4.04, 6.18]0% [0%, 0%]4%22%-1.05+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.82 [3.27, 6.04]1.51-4.82 [-6.04, -3.27]5.25 [3.54, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]4%22%-1.05+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.82 [3.27, 5.99]1.51-4.82 [-5.99, -3.27]5.25 [3.54, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]4%22%-1.05+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.82 [2.98, 5.96]1.51-4.82 [-5.96, -2.98]5.25 [3.17, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]4%22%-1.05+0.312026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC5.03 [3.94, 6.02]1.54-5.03 [-6.02, -3.94]5.45 [4.22, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.14+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC5.03 [3.52, 6.26]1.54-5.03 [-6.26, -3.52]5.45 [3.76, 6.63]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.14+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC5.03 [3.51, 6.22]1.54-5.03 [-6.22, -3.51]5.45 [3.76, 6.62]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.14+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC5.03 [3.19, 6.20]1.54-5.03 [-6.20, -3.19]5.45 [3.35, 6.64]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.14+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.96 [4.10, 5.55]1.40-4.96 [-5.55, -4.10]5.22 [4.38, 5.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.11+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.96 [3.79, 5.64]1.40-4.96 [-5.64, -3.79]5.22 [4.12, 5.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.11+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.96 [3.79, 5.66]1.40-4.96 [-5.66, -3.79]5.22 [4.00, 5.88]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.11+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.96 [3.50, 5.60]1.40-4.96 [-5.60, -3.50]5.22 [3.72, 5.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%13%-1.11+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC5.19 [4.31, 5.84]1.39-5.19 [-5.84, -4.31]5.44 [4.60, 6.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.21+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC5.19 [4.04, 5.89]1.39-5.19 [-5.89, -4.04]5.44 [4.29, 6.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.21+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC5.19 [4.04, 5.92]1.39-5.19 [-5.92, -4.04]5.44 [4.24, 6.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.21+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC5.19 [3.74, 5.89]1.39-5.19 [-5.89, -3.74]5.44 [3.94, 6.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.21+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.42 [2.53, 4.39]1.71+3.36 [2.38, 4.39]3.95 [3.04, 4.74]9% [0%, 23%]26%52%-0.02+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.42 [2.39, 4.48]1.71+3.36 [2.26, 4.48]3.95 [2.92, 4.77]9% [0%, 23%]26%52%-0.02+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.42 [2.40, 4.52]1.71+3.36 [2.27, 4.52]3.95 [2.99, 4.81]9% [0%, 24%]26%52%-0.02+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.42 [2.39, 4.59]1.71+3.36 [2.22, 4.59]3.95 [2.92, 4.86]9% [0%, 25%]26%52%-0.02+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.21 [2.32, 4.18]1.72+3.13 [2.11, 4.18]3.76 [2.85, 4.54]17% [0%, 33%]26%57%+0.04+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.21 [2.20, 4.26]1.72+3.13 [1.98, 4.26]3.76 [2.71, 4.56]17% [0%, 33%]26%57%+0.04+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.21 [2.20, 4.31]1.72+3.13 [2.01, 4.31]3.76 [2.81, 4.61]17% [0%, 35%]26%57%+0.04+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.21 [2.20, 4.39]1.72+3.13 [1.95, 4.39]3.76 [2.70, 4.67]17% [0%, 36%]26%57%+0.04+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.05 [2.14, 3.94]1.44+2.99 [1.97, 3.94]3.45 [2.58, 4.20]22% [0%, 46%]30%48%+0.09+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.05 [2.10, 4.08]1.44+2.99 [1.93, 4.08]3.45 [2.52, 4.34]22% [0%, 45%]30%48%+0.09+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.05 [2.08, 4.16]1.44+2.99 [1.91, 4.16]3.45 [2.51, 4.35]22% [0%, 47%]30%48%+0.09+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.05 [1.99, 4.20]1.44+2.99 [1.86, 4.20]3.45 [2.46, 4.43]22% [0%, 48%]30%48%+0.09+0.572026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.84 [1.92, 3.73]1.45+2.75 [1.70, 3.73]3.26 [2.40, 4.00]17% [0%, 35%]30%52%+0.15+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.84 [1.89, 3.87]1.45+2.75 [1.66, 3.87]3.26 [2.33, 4.15]17% [0%, 36%]30%52%+0.15+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.84 [1.86, 3.95]1.45+2.75 [1.63, 3.95]3.26 [2.31, 4.15]17% [0%, 38%]30%52%+0.15+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC2.84 [1.78, 3.99]1.45+2.75 [1.58, 3.99]3.26 [2.28, 4.23]17% [0%, 38%]30%52%+0.15+0.562026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -5.42 °F2026-08-09: -10.19 °F2026-08-10: -5.4 °F2026-08-11: -4.26 °F2026-08-12: -3.06 °F2026-08-13: -4.45 °F2026-08-14: -2.47 °F2026-08-15: -6.33 °F2026-08-16: -4.66 °F2026-08-17: -5.26 °F2026-08-18: -4.1 °F2026-08-19: -4.81 °F2026-08-20: -5.14 °F2026-08-21: -5.4 °F2026-08-22: -9.29 °F2026-08-23: -7.74 °F2026-08-24: -5.39 °F2026-08-25: -3.98 °F2026-08-26: -1.24 °F2026-08-27: -4.61 °F2026-08-28: -2.83 °F2026-08-29: -2.2 °F2026-08-30: -2.64 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.64
2026-08-29-2.20
2026-08-28-2.83
2026-08-27-4.61
2026-08-26-1.24
2026-08-25-3.98
2026-08-24-5.39
2026-08-23-7.74
2026-08-22-9.29
2026-08-21-5.40
2026-08-20-5.14
2026-08-19-4.81
2026-08-18-4.10
2026-08-17-5.26
2026-08-16-4.66
2026-08-15-6.33
2026-08-14-2.47
2026-08-13-4.45
2026-08-12-3.06
2026-08-11-4.26
2026-08-10-5.40
2026-08-09-10.19
2026-08-08-5.42

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 12 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.66 · P90 |e| 7.45 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.0012
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.82 -4.82

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +2.05 [0.63, 3.12] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -2.52 [-3.77, 0.07] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.65 [-0.31, 2.29] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +2.47 [0.15, 3.97] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence