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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KAUS · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.74 [3.65, 5.86]1.75-4.74 [-5.86, -3.65]5.23 [4.01, 6.37]0% [0%, 0%]12%25%-1.19+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.74 [3.52, 6.10]1.75-4.74 [-6.10, -3.52]5.23 [3.85, 6.66]0% [0%, 0%]12%25%-1.19+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.74 [3.24, 6.18]1.75-4.74 [-6.18, -3.24]5.23 [3.50, 6.67]0% [0%, 0%]12%25%-1.19+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.74 [3.33, 6.07]1.75-4.74 [-6.07, -3.33]5.23 [3.70, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]12%25%-1.19+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.95 [3.84, 6.08]1.77-4.95 [-6.08, -3.84]5.45 [4.16, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.29+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.95 [3.70, 6.38]1.77-4.95 [-6.38, -3.70]5.45 [3.99, 6.89]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.29+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.95 [3.48, 6.42]1.77-4.95 [-6.42, -3.48]5.45 [3.72, 6.92]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.29+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC4.95 [3.57, 6.30]1.77-4.95 [-6.30, -3.57]5.45 [3.91, 6.77]0% [0%, 0%]4%17%-1.29+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.05 [4.18, 5.84]1.37-5.05 [-5.84, -4.18]5.35 [4.45, 6.11]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.33+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.05 [4.01, 5.97]1.37-5.05 [-5.97, -4.01]5.35 [4.32, 6.24]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.33+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.05 [3.84, 6.01]1.37-5.05 [-6.01, -3.84]5.35 [4.08, 6.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.33+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.05 [3.96, 5.97]1.37-5.05 [-5.97, -3.96]5.35 [4.22, 6.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.33+0.362026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC5.25 [4.34, 6.04]1.38-5.25 [-6.04, -4.34]5.55 [4.63, 6.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.42+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC5.25 [4.22, 6.18]1.38-5.25 [-6.18, -4.22]5.55 [4.48, 6.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.42+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC5.25 [4.06, 6.25]1.38-5.25 [-6.25, -4.06]5.55 [4.29, 6.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.42+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC5.25 [4.09, 6.15]1.38-5.25 [-6.15, -4.09]5.55 [4.38, 6.41]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-1.42+0.352026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.52 [2.60, 4.39]1.48+3.43 [2.40, 4.39]3.89 [3.08, 4.59]4% [0%, 11%]25%38%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.52 [2.56, 4.56]1.48+3.43 [2.34, 4.56]3.89 [3.02, 4.75]4% [0%, 12%]25%38%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.52 [2.56, 4.59]1.48+3.43 [2.36, 4.59]3.89 [3.01, 4.74]4% [0%, 12%]25%38%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.52 [2.52, 4.64]1.48+3.43 [2.30, 4.64]3.89 [3.01, 4.79]4% [0%, 13%]25%38%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.33 [2.40, 4.20]1.49+3.21 [2.14, 4.20]3.71 [2.89, 4.41]12% [0%, 22%]25%42%-0.11+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.33 [2.36, 4.37]1.49+3.21 [2.09, 4.37]3.71 [2.83, 4.53]12% [0%, 24%]25%42%-0.11+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.33 [2.34, 4.40]1.49+3.21 [2.10, 4.40]3.71 [2.82, 4.55]12% [0%, 23%]25%42%-0.11+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC3.33 [2.33, 4.45]1.49+3.21 [2.04, 4.45]3.71 [2.82, 4.58]12% [0%, 23%]25%42%-0.11+0.492026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.03 [2.10, 3.96]1.48+2.95 [1.88, 3.96]3.47 [2.66, 4.16]12% [0%, 31%]29%42%-0.01+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.03 [2.06, 4.09]1.48+2.95 [1.86, 4.09]3.47 [2.64, 4.27]12% [0%, 32%]29%42%-0.01+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.03 [2.00, 4.11]1.48+2.95 [1.75, 4.11]3.47 [2.58, 4.26]12% [0%, 33%]29%42%-0.01+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.03 [1.97, 4.23]1.48+2.95 [1.73, 4.23]3.47 [2.55, 4.35]12% [0%, 33%]29%42%-0.01+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.86 [1.94, 3.78]1.48+2.73 [1.63, 3.78]3.29 [2.50, 3.96]17% [0%, 40%]29%50%+0.05+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.86 [1.92, 3.89]1.48+2.73 [1.60, 3.89]3.29 [2.48, 4.07]17% [0%, 40%]29%50%+0.05+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.86 [1.85, 3.91]1.48+2.73 [1.48, 3.91]3.29 [2.42, 4.05]17% [0%, 43%]29%50%+0.05+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.86 [1.82, 4.05]1.48+2.73 [1.46, 4.05]3.29 [2.40, 4.12]17% [0%, 43%]29%50%+0.05+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -6.09 °F2026-08-08: -11.12 °F2026-08-09: -6.7 °F2026-08-10: -5.88 °F2026-08-11: -3.07 °F2026-08-12: -3.64 °F2026-08-13: -4.17 °F2026-08-14: -1.5 °F2026-08-15: -6.26 °F2026-08-16: -3.66 °F2026-08-17: -6.67 °F2026-08-18: -3.79 °F2026-08-19: -2.97 °F2026-08-20: -4.77 °F2026-08-21: -5.93 °F2026-08-22: -8.37 °F2026-08-23: -6.56 °F2026-08-24: -4.74 °F2026-08-25: -3.9 °F2026-08-26: -1.91 °F2026-08-27: -4.86 °F2026-08-28: -2.79 °F2026-08-29: -1.82 °F2026-08-30: -2.64 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.64
2026-08-29-1.82
2026-08-28-2.79
2026-08-27-4.86
2026-08-26-1.91
2026-08-25-3.90
2026-08-24-4.74
2026-08-23-6.56
2026-08-22-8.37
2026-08-21-5.93
2026-08-20-4.77
2026-08-19-2.97
2026-08-18-3.79
2026-08-17-6.67
2026-08-16-3.66
2026-08-15-6.26
2026-08-14-1.50
2026-08-13-4.17
2026-08-12-3.64
2026-08-11-3.07
2026-08-10-5.88
2026-08-09-6.70
2026-08-08-11.12
2026-08-07-6.09

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KAUS, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.46 · P90 |e| 6.69 °F-200+20 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.005
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.008
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08244.74 -4.74

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +1.92 [-0.76, 3.70] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -2.43 [-3.85, 0.52] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +0.25 [-0.93, 1.44] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +2.58 [0.66, 4.03] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence