Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.14 [3.64, 4.58]1.27-4.14 [-4.58, -3.64]4.46 [3.99, 4.84]5% [0%, 17%]11%21%-0.75+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.14 [3.65, 4.64]1.27-4.14 [-4.64, -3.65]4.46 [3.96, 4.87]5% [0%, 18%]11%21%-0.75+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.14 [3.63, 4.67]1.27-4.14 [-4.67, -3.63]4.46 [3.96, 4.92]5% [0%, 17%]11%21%-0.75+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.14 [3.66, 4.61]1.27-4.14 [-4.61, -3.66]4.46 [3.96, 4.89]5% [0%, 17%]11%21%-0.75+0.432026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.77 [3.32, 4.17]1.26-3.77 [-4.17, -3.32]4.12 [3.62, 4.52]5% [0%, 17%]11%32%-0.59+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.77 [3.33, 4.23]1.26-3.77 [-4.23, -3.33]4.12 [3.56, 4.57]5% [0%, 18%]11%32%-0.59+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.77 [3.33, 4.25]1.26-3.77 [-4.25, -3.33]4.12 [3.36, 4.62]5% [0%, 17%]11%32%-0.59+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC3.77 [3.33, 4.21]1.26-3.77 [-4.21, -3.33]4.12 [3.36, 4.59]5% [0%, 17%]11%32%-0.59+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.22 [3.52, 5.08]1.61-4.22 [-5.08, -3.52]4.61 [3.81, 5.46]0% [0%, 0%]16%37%-0.78+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.22 [3.41, 5.36]1.61-4.22 [-5.36, -3.41]4.61 [3.63, 5.71]0% [0%, 0%]16%37%-0.78+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.22 [3.32, 5.43]1.61-4.22 [-5.43, -3.32]4.61 [3.53, 5.81]0% [0%, 0%]16%37%-0.78+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.22 [3.34, 5.41]1.61-4.22 [-5.41, -3.34]4.61 [3.57, 5.80]0% [0%, 0%]16%37%-0.78+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.93 [3.19, 4.85]1.65-3.93 [-4.85, -3.19]4.40 [3.50, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]16%42%-0.66+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.93 [3.00, 5.14]1.65-3.93 [-5.14, -3.00]4.40 [3.25, 5.64]0% [0%, 0%]16%42%-0.66+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.93 [2.99, 5.26]1.65-3.93 [-5.26, -2.99]4.40 [3.21, 5.66]0% [0%, 0%]16%42%-0.66+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC3.93 [3.00, 5.26]1.65-3.93 [-5.26, -3.00]4.40 [3.24, 5.55]0% [0%, 0%]16%42%-0.66+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC5.14 [3.06, 6.51]2.28+5.09 [2.87, 6.51]5.83 [3.96, 6.94]11% [0%, 33%]16%16%-0.57+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC5.14 [2.85, 6.56]2.28+5.09 [2.69, 6.56]5.83 [3.76, 7.03]11% [0%, 38%]16%16%-0.57+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC5.14 [2.83, 6.57]2.28+5.09 [2.68, 6.57]5.83 [3.69, 7.04]11% [0%, 39%]16%16%-0.57+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC5.14 [2.75, 6.57]2.28+5.09 [2.60, 6.57]5.83 [3.60, 7.05]11% [0%, 38%]16%16%-0.57+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC5.25 [3.09, 6.70]2.28+5.21 [2.90, 6.70]5.97 [4.04, 7.15]11% [0%, 33%]16%21%-0.61+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC5.25 [2.87, 6.75]2.28+5.21 [2.74, 6.75]5.97 [3.89, 7.18]11% [0%, 38%]16%21%-0.61+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC5.25 [2.86, 6.78]2.28+5.21 [2.72, 6.78]5.97 [3.79, 7.25]11% [0%, 39%]16%21%-0.61+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC5.25 [2.74, 6.78]2.28+5.21 [2.60, 6.78]5.97 [3.68, 7.27]11% [0%, 38%]16%21%-0.61+0.272026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.80 [3.01, 6.17]2.18+4.69 [2.66, 6.17]5.45 [3.68, 6.64]11% [0%, 33%]16%21%-0.47+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.80 [2.89, 6.36]2.18+4.69 [2.47, 6.36]5.45 [3.61, 6.71]11% [0%, 38%]16%21%-0.47+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.80 [2.78, 6.36]2.18+4.69 [2.45, 6.36]5.45 [3.50, 6.76]11% [0%, 39%]16%21%-0.47+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.80 [2.74, 6.36]2.18+4.69 [2.38, 6.36]5.45 [3.53, 6.83]11% [0%, 38%]16%21%-0.47+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC4.88 [3.04, 6.29]2.24+4.76 [2.69, 6.29]5.54 [3.75, 6.77]11% [0%, 33%]16%16%-0.49+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC4.88 [2.93, 6.47]2.24+4.76 [2.51, 6.47]5.54 [3.66, 6.86]11% [0%, 38%]16%16%-0.49+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC4.88 [2.82, 6.47]2.24+4.76 [2.46, 6.47]5.54 [3.54, 6.92]11% [0%, 39%]16%16%-0.49+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC4.88 [2.79, 6.50]2.24+4.76 [2.41, 6.50]5.54 [3.57, 6.96]11% [0%, 38%]16%16%-0.49+0.282026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: -3.96 °F2026-08-13: -4.85 °F2026-08-14: -1.7 °F2026-08-15: -7.14 °F2026-08-16: -4.43 °F2026-08-17: -4.78 °F2026-08-18: -5.41 °F2026-08-19: -3.09 °F2026-08-20: -4 °F2026-08-21: -4.15 °F2026-08-22: -6.78 °F2026-08-23: -2.66 °F2026-08-24: -3.29 °F2026-08-25: -2.49 °F2026-08-26: -3.94 °F2026-08-27: -4.95 °F2026-08-28: -0.44 °F2026-08-29: -6.81 °F2026-08-30: -3.72 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.72
2026-08-29-6.81
2026-08-28-0.44
2026-08-27-4.95
2026-08-26-3.94
2026-08-25-2.49
2026-08-24-3.29
2026-08-23-2.66
2026-08-22-6.78
2026-08-21-4.15
2026-08-20-4.00
2026-08-19-3.09
2026-08-18-5.41
2026-08-17-4.78
2026-08-16-4.43
2026-08-15-7.14
2026-08-14-1.70
2026-08-13-4.85
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07-3.96

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4 · P90 |e| 6.79 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08194.14 -4.14

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -0.25 [-1.44, 0.93] no
NCEP GFS 19 +1.32 [-0.96, 2.53] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -3.57 [-4.77, -1.10] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 +1.77 [-0.04, 2.41] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence