Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 6

KAUS · gfs · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.82 [1.93, 4.17]2.34-1.92 [-3.78, -0.51]3.65 [2.49, 5.08]21% [0%, 38%]38%62%-0.30-0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.82 [1.89, 4.50]2.34-1.92 [-4.41, -0.54]3.65 [2.47, 5.47]21% [0%, 41%]38%62%-0.30-0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.82 [1.85, 4.50]2.34-1.92 [-4.43, -0.48]3.65 [2.43, 5.39]21% [0%, 43%]38%62%-0.30-0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.82 [1.88, 4.49]2.34-1.92 [-4.19, -0.47]3.65 [2.46, 5.42]21% [0%, 43%]38%62%-0.30-0.102026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.62 [1.79, 3.85]2.30-1.64 [-3.47, -0.34]3.38 [2.40, 4.52]25% [5%, 41%]50%62%-0.21-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.62 [1.72, 4.13]2.30-1.64 [-4.01, -0.33]3.38 [2.34, 4.82]25% [0%, 43%]50%62%-0.21-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.62 [1.65, 4.09]2.30-1.64 [-4.07, -0.28]3.38 [2.28, 4.81]25% [0%, 43%]50%62%-0.21-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.62 [1.68, 4.22]2.30-1.64 [-3.95, -0.32]3.38 [2.28, 4.80]25% [0%, 43%]50%62%-0.21-0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.83 [1.30, 2.58]1.72-1.03 [-2.35, -0.07]2.48 [1.83, 3.19]50% [29%, 63%]71%71%+0.16+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.83 [1.30, 2.92]1.72-1.03 [-2.86, -0.05]2.48 [1.84, 3.38]50% [21%, 62%]71%71%+0.16+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.83 [1.26, 2.92]1.72-1.03 [-2.78, -0.00]2.48 [1.82, 3.38]50% [23%, 64%]71%71%+0.16+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.83 [1.27, 2.93]1.72-1.03 [-2.85, 0.00]2.48 [1.85, 3.31]50% [14%, 63%]71%71%+0.16+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.78 [1.29, 2.54]1.72-0.77 [-2.14, 0.21]2.31 [1.79, 2.96]46% [20%, 67%]71%71%+0.18+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.78 [1.29, 2.86]1.72-0.77 [-2.61, 0.22]2.31 [1.74, 3.18]46% [10%, 68%]71%71%+0.18+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.78 [1.26, 2.74]1.72-0.77 [-2.58, 0.31]2.31 [1.69, 3.08]46% [12%, 71%]71%71%+0.18+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC1.78 [1.29, 2.97]1.72-0.77 [-2.77, 0.30]2.31 [1.77, 3.23]46% [0%, 67%]71%71%+0.18+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.09 [2.21, 4.02]2.40+2.74 [1.39, 4.02]3.89 [2.85, 4.70]25% [7%, 39%]46%50%-0.03+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.09 [2.14, 4.04]2.40+2.74 [1.28, 4.04]3.89 [2.77, 4.71]25% [0%, 38%]46%50%-0.03+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.09 [2.11, 4.21]2.40+2.74 [1.24, 4.20]3.89 [2.77, 4.88]25% [0%, 39%]46%50%-0.03+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.09 [2.11, 4.13]2.40+2.74 [1.18, 4.13]3.89 [2.77, 4.76]25% [0%, 39%]46%50%-0.03+0.182026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.08 [2.88, 5.22]2.57+3.85 [2.35, 5.22]4.87 [3.54, 5.83]12% [0%, 24%]29%46%-0.36+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.08 [2.76, 5.28]2.57+3.85 [2.20, 5.28]4.87 [3.43, 5.87]12% [0%, 25%]29%46%-0.36+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.08 [2.75, 5.45]2.57+3.85 [2.18, 5.45]4.87 [3.46, 6.08]12% [0%, 25%]29%46%-0.36+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC4.08 [2.74, 5.35]2.57+3.85 [2.09, 5.35]4.87 [3.42, 5.91]12% [0%, 25%]29%46%-0.36+0.132026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.25 [2.11, 4.40]2.75+2.82 [1.25, 4.37]4.18 [2.89, 5.09]29% [14%, 43%]46%50%-0.08+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.25 [2.04, 4.47]2.75+2.82 [1.07, 4.42]4.18 [2.74, 5.18]29% [12%, 44%]46%50%-0.08+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.25 [2.03, 4.56]2.75+2.82 [1.05, 4.55]4.18 [2.74, 5.32]29% [11%, 45%]46%50%-0.08+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.25 [1.96, 4.55]2.75+2.82 [1.06, 4.53]4.18 [2.66, 5.25]29% [8%, 44%]46%50%-0.08+0.062026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.08 [2.57, 5.51]2.89+3.85 [2.04, 5.51]5.08 [3.47, 6.11]17% [3%, 31%]38%46%-0.36+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.08 [2.42, 5.56]2.89+3.85 [1.84, 5.56]5.08 [3.32, 6.19]17% [0%, 32%]38%46%-0.36+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.08 [2.40, 5.69]2.89+3.85 [1.83, 5.69]5.08 [3.33, 6.34]17% [0%, 33%]38%46%-0.36+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC4.08 [2.42, 5.68]2.89+3.85 [1.88, 5.68]5.08 [3.23, 6.31]17% [0%, 33%]38%46%-0.36+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -2.98 °F2026-08-08: -3.83 °F2026-08-09: -3.54 °F2026-08-10: -2.12 °F2026-08-11: -3.48 °F2026-08-12: +1.09 °F2026-08-13: +1.33 °F2026-08-14: +5.36 °F2026-08-15: -3.51 °F2026-08-16: -0.29 °F2026-08-17: -2.41 °F2026-08-18: +1.29 °F2026-08-19: -0.25 °F2026-08-20: -2.2 °F2026-08-21: -1.37 °F2026-08-22: -5.33 °F2026-08-23: +0.62 °F2026-08-24: +0.16 °F2026-08-25: +0.96 °F2026-08-26: -2.26 °F2026-08-27: -2.49 °F2026-08-28: -10.27 °F2026-08-29: -7.01 °F2026-08-30: -3.51 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.51
2026-08-29-7.01
2026-08-28-10.27
2026-08-27-2.49
2026-08-26-2.26
2026-08-25+0.96
2026-08-24+0.16
2026-08-23+0.62
2026-08-22-5.33
2026-08-21-1.37
2026-08-20-2.20
2026-08-19-0.25
2026-08-18+1.29
2026-08-17-2.41
2026-08-16-0.29
2026-08-15-3.51
2026-08-14+5.36
2026-08-13+1.33
2026-08-12+1.09
2026-08-11-3.48
2026-08-10-2.12
2026-08-09-3.54
2026-08-08-3.83
2026-08-07-2.98

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -2 °F: 11 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 6 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.33 · P90 |e| 5.35 °F-200+20 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.001
-4.00-2.0011
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.006
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.82 -1.92

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -1.92 [-3.70, 0.76] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -4.35 [-6.73, -1.35] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 -1.32 [-2.53, 0.96] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +0.65 [-0.26, 1.63] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence