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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · NCEP GFS · lead day 9

KAUS · gfs · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.67 [1.64, 3.80]2.73-0.57 [-2.42, 1.59]3.98 [2.19, 5.57]29% [14%, 42%]48%67%-0.15-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.67 [1.45, 3.81]2.73-0.57 [-2.67, 2.19]3.98 [2.03, 5.65]29% [14%, 47%]48%67%-0.15-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.67 [1.48, 3.85]2.73-0.57 [-2.88, 2.23]3.98 [2.07, 5.81]29% [13%, 44%]48%67%-0.15-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.67 [1.54, 3.92]2.73-0.57 [-3.01, 2.34]3.98 [2.09, 5.84]29% [12%, 43%]48%67%-0.15-0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 1 QC2.60 [1.57, 3.69]2.68-0.54 [-2.39, 1.54]4.01 [2.15, 5.58]33% [17%, 50%]57%71%-0.12-0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 1 QC2.60 [1.33, 3.69]2.68-0.54 [-2.65, 2.12]4.01 [1.97, 5.68]33% [14%, 55%]57%71%-0.12-0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 1 QC2.60 [1.37, 3.74]2.68-0.54 [-2.88, 2.17]4.01 [1.98, 5.86]33% [14%, 50%]57%71%-0.12-0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 1 QC2.60 [1.43, 3.80]2.68-0.54 [-3.00, 2.29]4.01 [2.07, 5.87]33% [12%, 55%]57%71%-0.12-0.422026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.53 [1.47, 3.67]2.61-0.45 [-2.43, 1.41]3.64 [1.98, 5.03]43% [22%, 61%]57%71%-0.08-0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.53 [1.46, 3.79]2.61-0.45 [-2.50, 1.75]3.64 [1.92, 5.12]43% [20%, 63%]57%71%-0.08-0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.53 [1.45, 3.73]2.61-0.45 [-2.64, 1.57]3.64 [1.93, 5.30]43% [20%, 64%]57%71%-0.08-0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.53 [1.50, 3.86]2.61-0.45 [-3.04, 1.57]3.64 [1.95, 5.30]43% [21%, 62%]57%71%-0.08-0.382026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC2.65 [1.54, 3.88]2.75-0.43 [-2.64, 1.65]3.82 [2.09, 5.27]38% [21%, 53%]52%71%-0.14-0.462026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC2.65 [1.53, 3.97]2.75-0.43 [-2.68, 1.94]3.82 [2.04, 5.37]38% [17%, 54%]52%71%-0.14-0.462026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC2.65 [1.51, 4.02]2.75-0.43 [-2.83, 1.83]3.82 [2.04, 5.57]38% [15%, 57%]52%71%-0.14-0.462026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC2.65 [1.55, 4.06]2.75-0.43 [-3.27, 1.78]3.82 [2.06, 5.59]38% [15%, 56%]52%71%-0.14-0.462026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.91 [2.03, 4.04]2.19+2.23 [0.52, 3.99]3.41 [2.38, 4.35]14% [5%, 23%]43%52%-0.02+0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.91 [1.75, 4.37]2.19+2.23 [0.34, 4.37]3.41 [1.86, 4.62]14% [0%, 24%]43%52%-0.02+0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.91 [1.74, 4.50]2.19+2.23 [0.24, 4.50]3.41 [1.88, 4.65]14% [0%, 23%]43%52%-0.02+0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.91 [1.76, 4.63]2.19+2.23 [0.37, 4.63]3.41 [1.95, 4.69]14% [0%, 24%]43%52%-0.02+0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 1 QC3.67 [2.23, 5.10]2.27+3.28 [1.36, 5.10]4.23 [2.76, 5.39]5% [0%, 14%]29%48%-0.28+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 1 QC3.67 [2.08, 5.61]2.27+3.28 [1.17, 5.61]4.23 [2.35, 5.68]5% [0%, 16%]29%48%-0.28+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 1 QC3.67 [2.06, 5.64]2.27+3.28 [1.07, 5.64]4.23 [2.23, 5.71]5% [0%, 17%]29%48%-0.28+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 1 QC3.67 [2.01, 5.67]2.27+3.28 [1.19, 5.67]4.23 [2.30, 5.70]5% [0%, 17%]29%48%-0.28+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC2.97 [1.63, 4.45]2.33+2.50 [0.56, 4.42]3.65 [2.19, 4.78]24% [6%, 42%]38%52%-0.04+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC2.97 [1.01, 4.85]2.33+2.50 [0.24, 4.85]3.65 [1.27, 5.10]24% [0%, 50%]38%52%-0.04+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC2.97 [1.02, 4.96]2.33+2.50 [0.30, 4.96]3.65 [1.28, 5.14]24% [0%, 50%]38%52%-0.04+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC2.97 [1.02, 5.03]2.33+2.50 [0.26, 5.03]3.65 [1.31, 5.17]24% [0%, 50%]38%52%-0.04+0.182026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.80 [2.02, 5.71]2.53+3.52 [1.29, 5.67]4.60 [2.77, 6.07]19% [4%, 40%]33%38%-0.33+0.112026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.80 [1.40, 6.25]2.53+3.52 [0.94, 6.25]4.60 [1.74, 6.49]19% [0%, 50%]33%38%-0.33+0.112026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.80 [1.65, 6.35]2.53+3.52 [0.95, 6.35]4.60 [1.80, 6.54]19% [0%, 50%]33%38%-0.33+0.112026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC3.80 [1.40, 6.40]2.53+3.52 [0.94, 6.40]4.60 [1.70, 6.56]19% [0%, 50%]33%38%-0.33+0.112026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -0.3 °F2026-08-11: -1.35 °F2026-08-12: -1.06 °F2026-08-13: +0.04 °F2026-08-14: +5.51 °F2026-08-15: -3.31 °F2026-08-16: +1.77 °F2026-08-17: -2.45 °F2026-08-18: +1.78 °F2026-08-19: -0.26 °F2026-08-20: +0.25 °F2026-08-21: -0.28 °F2026-08-22: -5.26 °F2026-08-23: -13.94 °F2026-08-24: -3.16 °F2026-08-25: -2.65 °F2026-08-26: +2.19 °F2026-08-27: +0.97 °F2026-08-28: +2.75 °F2026-08-29: +3.13 °F2026-08-30: +3.73 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.73
2026-08-29+3.13
2026-08-28+2.75
2026-08-27+0.97
2026-08-26+2.19
2026-08-25-2.65
2026-08-24-3.16
2026-08-23-13.94
2026-08-22-5.26
2026-08-21-0.28
2026-08-20+0.25
2026-08-19-0.26
2026-08-18+1.78
2026-08-17-2.45
2026-08-16+1.77
2026-08-15-3.31
2026-08-14+5.51
2026-08-13+0.04
2026-08-12-1.06
2026-08-11-1.35
2026-08-10-0.30

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KAUS, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 5 days2 to 4 °F: 4 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.19 · P90 |e| 5.26 °F-200+20 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.001
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.005
+2.00+4.004
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08212.67 -0.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 21 -2.25 [-3.81, -0.14] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -4.81 [-6.06, -3.60] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 -1.29 [-3.27, 0.32] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 +0.34 [-0.97, 1.35] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS gfs lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model gfs, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/gfs/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence