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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC4.09 [2.44, 5.06]1.61-4.09 [-5.06, -2.44]4.57 [2.79, 5.46]6% [0%, 25%]12%25%-0.52+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC4.09 [2.19, 5.06]1.61-4.09 [-5.06, -2.19]4.57 [2.60, 5.46]6% [0%, 33%]12%25%-0.52+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC4.09 [2.18, 5.10]1.61-4.09 [-5.10, -2.18]4.57 [2.59, 5.52]6% [0%, 33%]12%25%-0.52+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC4.09 [2.16, 5.09]1.61-4.09 [-5.09, -2.16]4.57 [2.59, 5.47]6% [0%, 33%]12%25%-0.52+0.202026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC3.89 [2.28, 4.86]1.63-3.88 [-4.86, -2.26]4.42 [2.64, 5.34]12% [0%, 29%]12%31%-0.45+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC3.89 [2.07, 4.86]1.63-3.88 [-4.86, -2.03]4.42 [2.50, 5.35]12% [0%, 33%]12%31%-0.45+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC3.89 [2.05, 4.93]1.63-3.88 [-4.93, -2.02]4.42 [2.43, 5.41]12% [0%, 33%]12%31%-0.45+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC3.89 [2.01, 4.92]1.63-3.88 [-4.92, -1.97]4.42 [2.44, 5.37]12% [0%, 33%]12%31%-0.45+0.192026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC4.00 [2.56, 5.05]1.97-3.97 [-5.05, -2.48]4.73 [3.08, 5.73]7% [0%, 25%]27%33%-0.46+0.082026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC4.00 [2.44, 5.06]1.97-3.97 [-5.05, -2.31]4.73 [3.03, 5.74]7% [0%, 33%]27%33%-0.46+0.082026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC4.00 [2.41, 5.10]1.97-3.97 [-5.10, -2.26]4.73 [3.02, 5.83]7% [0%, 33%]27%33%-0.46+0.082026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC4.00 [2.37, 5.10]1.97-3.97 [-5.10, -2.24]4.73 [2.97, 5.78]7% [0%, 33%]27%33%-0.46+0.082026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.60 [2.08, 4.59]2.04-3.54 [-4.59, -1.93]4.39 [2.42, 5.42]13% [0%, 30%]40%40%-0.32+0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.60 [1.98, 4.56]2.04-3.54 [-4.56, -1.90]4.39 [1.98, 5.44]13% [0%, 33%]40%40%-0.32+0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.60 [1.98, 4.66]2.04-3.54 [-4.66, -1.92]4.39 [1.98, 5.57]13% [0%, 33%]40%40%-0.32+0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC3.60 [1.98, 4.67]2.04-3.54 [-4.67, -1.80]4.39 [1.98, 5.50]13% [0%, 33%]40%40%-0.32+0.042026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC5.44 [3.64, 6.87]1.96+5.44 [3.64, 6.87]5.91 [3.81, 7.25]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%-1.07+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC5.44 [3.21, 7.13]1.96+5.44 [3.21, 7.13]5.91 [3.21, 7.55]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%-1.07+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC5.44 [3.21, 7.13]1.96+5.44 [3.21, 7.13]5.91 [3.21, 7.54]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%-1.07+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC5.44 [3.21, 7.30]1.96+5.44 [3.21, 7.30]5.91 [3.21, 7.65]0% [0%, 0%]6%6%-1.07+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC5.66 [3.83, 7.06]1.95+5.66 [3.83, 7.06]6.11 [4.01, 7.44]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%-1.16+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC5.66 [3.32, 7.28]1.95+5.66 [3.32, 7.28]6.11 [3.32, 7.67]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%-1.16+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC5.66 [3.32, 7.28]1.95+5.66 [3.32, 7.28]6.11 [3.32, 7.67]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%-1.16+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC5.66 [3.32, 7.46]1.95+5.66 [3.32, 7.46]6.11 [3.32, 7.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%6%-1.16+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC6.24 [4.54, 7.26]1.87+6.24 [4.54, 7.26]6.65 [4.83, 7.61]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.34+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC6.24 [3.43, 7.30]1.87+6.24 [3.43, 7.30]6.65 [3.43, 7.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.34+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC6.24 [3.43, 7.42]1.87+6.24 [3.43, 7.42]6.65 [3.43, 7.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.34+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC6.24 [3.43, 7.49]1.87+6.24 [3.43, 7.49]6.65 [3.43, 7.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.34+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC6.45 [4.63, 7.52]1.89+6.45 [4.63, 7.52]6.86 [4.95, 7.84]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.42+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC6.45 [3.51, 7.55]1.89+6.45 [3.51, 7.55]6.86 [3.51, 7.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.42+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC6.45 [3.51, 7.68]1.89+6.45 [3.51, 7.68]6.86 [3.51, 7.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.42+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC6.45 [3.51, 7.75]1.89+6.45 [3.51, 7.75]6.86 [3.51, 8.03]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-1.42+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: -3.26 °F2026-08-16: -4.52 °F2026-08-17: -5.46 °F2026-08-18: -5.93 °F2026-08-19: -1.13 °F2026-08-20: -3.85 °F2026-08-21: -8.65 °F2026-08-22: -6.02 °F2026-08-23: -6.43 °F2026-08-24: -3.75 °F2026-08-25: -4.51 °F2026-08-26: -2.53 °F2026-08-27: -3.56 °F2026-08-28: -2.63 °F2026-08-29: -3.1 °F2026-08-30: -0.15 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.15
2026-08-29-3.10
2026-08-28-2.63
2026-08-27-3.56
2026-08-26-2.53
2026-08-25-4.51
2026-08-24-3.75
2026-08-23-6.43
2026-08-22-6.02
2026-08-21-8.65
2026-08-20-3.85
2026-08-19-1.13
2026-08-18-5.93
2026-08-17-5.46
2026-08-16-4.52
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-3.26

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.8 · P90 |e| 6.22 °F-100+10 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08164.09 -4.09

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -1.01 [-2.00, 1.07] no
NCEP GFS 16 +1.29 [-0.32, 3.27] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -3.82 [-4.63, -0.01] yes
Persistence (baseline) 16 +1.41 [-0.36, 2.12] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence