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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Austin Bergstrom · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KAUS · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.83 [3.24, 4.31]1.34-3.83 [-4.31, -3.24]4.16 [3.62, 4.62]5% [0%, 13%]10%30%-0.82+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.83 [3.11, 4.33]1.34-3.83 [-4.33, -3.11]4.16 [3.43, 4.72]5% [0%, 13%]10%30%-0.82+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.83 [3.11, 4.37]1.34-3.83 [-4.37, -3.11]4.16 [3.38, 4.70]5% [0%, 14%]10%30%-0.82+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.83 [3.12, 4.36]1.34-3.83 [-4.36, -3.12]4.16 [3.44, 4.72]5% [0%, 13%]10%30%-0.82+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC3.47 [2.87, 3.94]1.26-3.47 [-3.94, -2.87]3.83 [3.25, 4.37]5% [0%, 13%]20%40%-0.65+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC3.47 [2.71, 3.99]1.26-3.47 [-3.99, -2.71]3.83 [2.99, 4.50]5% [0%, 13%]20%40%-0.65+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC3.47 [2.75, 4.00]1.26-3.47 [-4.00, -2.75]3.83 [3.01, 4.44]5% [0%, 14%]20%40%-0.65+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC3.47 [2.74, 3.98]1.26-3.47 [-3.98, -2.74]3.83 [3.09, 4.42]5% [0%, 13%]20%40%-0.65+0.402026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC4.30 [3.66, 4.85]1.11-4.30 [-4.85, -3.66]4.56 [3.77, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-1.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC4.30 [3.46, 4.90]1.11-4.30 [-4.90, -3.46]4.56 [3.56, 5.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-1.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC4.30 [3.30, 4.90]1.11-4.30 [-4.90, -3.30]4.56 [3.44, 5.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-1.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC4.30 [3.30, 4.89]1.11-4.30 [-4.89, -3.30]4.56 [3.40, 5.30]0% [0%, 0%]0%14%-1.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.88 [3.25, 4.38]1.06-3.88 [-4.38, -3.25]4.17 [3.41, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]10%29%-0.85+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.88 [3.01, 4.44]1.06-3.88 [-4.44, -3.01]4.17 [3.15, 4.96]0% [0%, 0%]10%29%-0.85+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.88 [2.93, 4.44]1.06-3.88 [-4.44, -2.93]4.17 [3.11, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]10%29%-0.85+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC3.88 [2.90, 4.45]1.06-3.88 [-4.45, -2.90]4.17 [3.03, 4.94]0% [0%, 0%]10%29%-0.85+0.492026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.67 [2.73, 5.93]1.99+4.62 [2.59, 5.93]5.28 [3.09, 6.34]5% [0%, 15%]10%25%-0.51+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.67 [2.47, 6.03]1.99+4.62 [2.30, 6.03]5.28 [2.73, 6.44]5% [0%, 17%]10%25%-0.51+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.67 [2.41, 6.13]1.99+4.62 [2.25, 6.13]5.28 [2.74, 6.53]5% [0%, 18%]10%25%-0.51+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.67 [2.44, 6.15]1.99+4.62 [2.30, 6.15]5.28 [2.69, 6.62]5% [0%, 18%]10%25%-0.51+0.362026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC4.79 [2.72, 6.11]2.09+4.74 [2.58, 6.11]5.44 [3.12, 6.54]5% [0%, 15%]10%25%-0.55+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC4.79 [2.51, 6.20]2.09+4.74 [2.33, 6.20]5.44 [2.55, 6.64]5% [0%, 17%]10%25%-0.55+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC4.79 [2.50, 6.31]2.09+4.74 [2.30, 6.31]5.44 [2.56, 6.77]5% [0%, 18%]10%25%-0.55+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC4.79 [2.46, 6.33]2.09+4.74 [2.28, 6.33]5.44 [2.52, 6.81]5% [0%, 18%]10%25%-0.55+0.332026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC4.48 [2.48, 5.93]2.24+4.28 [1.96, 5.93]5.16 [3.00, 6.34]5% [0%, 14%]24%29%-0.43+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC4.48 [2.32, 6.05]2.24+4.28 [1.86, 6.05]5.16 [2.71, 6.45]5% [0%, 15%]24%29%-0.43+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC4.48 [2.21, 6.13]2.24+4.28 [1.77, 6.13]5.16 [2.67, 6.52]5% [0%, 17%]24%29%-0.43+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC4.48 [2.24, 6.07]2.24+4.28 [1.81, 6.07]5.16 [2.63, 6.47]5% [0%, 17%]24%29%-0.43+0.292026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC4.68 [2.60, 6.19]2.28+4.49 [2.07, 6.19]5.38 [3.13, 6.60]5% [0%, 14%]24%24%-0.49+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC4.68 [2.43, 6.30]2.28+4.49 [2.00, 6.30]5.38 [2.81, 6.70]5% [0%, 15%]24%24%-0.49+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC4.68 [2.29, 6.40]2.28+4.49 [1.91, 6.40]5.38 [2.78, 6.79]5% [0%, 17%]24%24%-0.49+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC4.68 [2.33, 6.35]2.28+4.49 [1.93, 6.35]5.38 [2.73, 6.76]5% [0%, 17%]24%24%-0.49+0.282026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -1.66 °F2026-08-11: -4.01 °F2026-08-12: -4.27 °F2026-08-13: -5.72 °F2026-08-14: -2.52 °F2026-08-16: -3.29 °F2026-08-17: -5.73 °F2026-08-18: -3.28 °F2026-08-19: -2.01 °F2026-08-20: -4.01 °F2026-08-21: -3.66 °F2026-08-22: -6.3 °F2026-08-23: -3.66 °F2026-08-24: -3.24 °F2026-08-25: -2.05 °F2026-08-26: -0.85 °F2026-08-27: -5.27 °F2026-08-28: -7.14 °F2026-08-29: -2.47 °F2026-08-30: -5.43 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.43
2026-08-29-2.47
2026-08-28-7.14
2026-08-27-5.27
2026-08-26-0.85
2026-08-25-2.05
2026-08-24-3.24
2026-08-23-3.66
2026-08-22-6.30
2026-08-21-3.66
2026-08-20-4.01
2026-08-19-2.01
2026-08-18-3.28
2026-08-17-5.73
2026-08-16-3.29
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-2.52
2026-08-13-5.72
2026-08-12-4.27
2026-08-11-4.01
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-1.66

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KAUS, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.66 · P90 |e| 5.79 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.83 -3.83

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -0.66 [-1.53, 0.43] no
NCEP GFS 20 +2.28 [1.13, 3.29] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -3.63 [-4.78, -2.18] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 +1.73 [0.33, 2.35] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KAUS ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KAUS (Austin Bergstrom), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KAUS/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence