KAUS — Austin Bergstrom
30.1830, -97.6799 · 148 m· standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIAUS
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 5.78-5.78 · n=29 | 5.65-5.65 · n=28 | 5.55-5.55 · n=27 | 5.39-5.39 · n=26 | 5.17-5.17 · n=24 | 5.05-5.05 · n=24 | 4.96-4.96 · n=23 | 4.78-4.78 · n=22 | 5.11-5.11 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 8.92-8.92 · n=2 | 9.68-9.68 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 8.13-8.13 · n=2 | 7.25-7.25 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 5.11-5.11 · n=2 | 4.80-4.80 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 5.40-5.40 · n=2 | 4.78-4.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 1.58-1.11 · n=29 | 1.55-1.29 · n=28 | 1.43-0.91 · n=27 | 1.51-0.91 · n=26 | 1.67-1.20 · n=25 | 1.83-1.03 · n=24 | 2.32-1.15 · n=23 | 1.87-0.54 · n=22 | 2.53-0.45 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 8.66-8.66 · n=2 | 10.01-10.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 8.57-8.57 · n=27 | 8.36-8.36 · n=26 | 8.13-8.13 · n=25 | 7.93-7.93 · n=25 | 7.70-7.70 · n=25 | 7.47-7.47 · n=24 | 7.55-7.55 · n=23 | 7.83-7.83 · n=22 | 7.79-7.79 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 5.09-5.09 · n=24 | 4.83-4.83 · n=22 | 4.33-4.33 · n=22 | 4.30-4.30 · n=21 | 4.35-4.35 · n=20 | 4.22-4.22 · n=19 | 3.95-3.95 · n=17 | 4.12-4.12 · n=17 | 4.00-3.97 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 5.82-5.82 · n=2 | 6.56-6.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 5.08-5.08 · n=2 | 5.31-5.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.20-0.09 · n=90 | 2.98-0.20 · n=90 | 3.17-0.34 · n=90 | 3.16-0.49 · n=90 | 3.23-0.63 · n=90 | 3.72-0.92 · n=90 | 3.81-1.10 · n=90 | 3.86-1.28 · n=90 | 3.77-1.48 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | — | 2.54+2.33 · n=29 | 2.79+2.51 · n=28 | 2.78+2.51 · n=27 | 2.98+2.83 · n=26 | 3.08+2.95 · n=24 | 3.03+2.95 · n=24 | 3.05+2.99 · n=23 | 3.10+3.00 · n=22 | 3.02+2.96 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | — | 5.76+5.76 · n=2 | 4.37+4.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | — | 4.99+4.99 · n=2 | 4.35+4.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | — | 4.49+4.49 · n=2 | 3.93+3.93 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | — | 4.11+4.11 · n=2 | 3.98+3.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | — | 3.83+3.33 · n=29 | 3.79+3.14 · n=28 | 3.24+2.79 · n=27 | 3.30+2.75 · n=26 | 3.23+2.80 · n=25 | 3.25+2.82 · n=24 | 3.61+2.97 · n=23 | 3.51+2.83 · n=22 | 2.97+2.50 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | — | 5.54+5.54 · n=2 | 3.83+3.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | — | 3.76+3.64 · n=27 | 3.71+3.59 · n=26 | 3.83+3.68 · n=25 | 4.34+4.31 · n=25 | 4.43+4.41 · n=25 | 4.48+4.47 · n=24 | 4.62+4.62 · n=23 | 4.46+4.46 · n=22 | 4.28+4.23 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | — | 3.85+3.73 · n=24 | 4.42+4.19 · n=22 | 4.26+3.90 · n=22 | 4.48+4.28 · n=21 | 4.62+4.36 · n=20 | 4.80+4.69 · n=19 | 5.38+5.28 · n=17 | 6.11+6.11 · n=17 | 6.24+6.24 · n=15 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | — | 5.29+5.29 · n=2 | 4.24+4.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | — | 3.04+3.04 · n=2 | 2.81+2.81 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.36-0.02 · n=90 | 3.04-0.04 · n=90 | 3.09-0.09 · n=90 | 2.93-0.16 · n=90 | 3.09-0.29 · n=90 | 3.16-0.36 · n=90 | 3.29-0.47 · n=90 | 3.37-0.52 · n=90 | 3.54-0.61 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month-by-month slices, model availability and the observed-truth table live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences